NFL Week 5 Picks Against the Spread

Three positive weeks in a row against the spread – things are really looking up after that 0-3 start in week 1! I felt very confident about the Bengals and Bills selections last week – both beat their spreads by wide margins. I was disappointed in the Chargers performance last week despite rooting for Wentz and the Eagles for fantasy reasons. We’re now a quarter of the way through the season and the NFL is showing why it’s the most exciting, and at times frustrating, sport in the world to watch. Dalton and the Bengals looked awful for 2 weeks, then completely turned around as of late. The world was waiting to see if the Patriots’ “demise” was for real – Thursday night showed no indications either way. New Orleans defense went from being the “worst of all time” after two weeks to giving up 13 points total in their last two games. This league is truly unpredictable. Now, onto my guaranteed winning predictions!

ATS Record: 6-6

These spreads were taken from as of 10/6/17.

Seattle Pick at Los Angeles Rams

I love what the Rams have done this year. I’ve been a supporter since McVay got there and have Goff & Gurley on plenty of fantasy teams to prove it. However, Seattle is starting to look like old Seattle. They still have their issues and Carson going down can’t help, but the combination of Rawls and Lacy could actually be an intimidating 1-2 punch. Baldwin should be one week healthier and Jimmy Graham is poised for a breakout week. On the flip-side, as much as I think the Rams are for real and will contend this year they are due for a flop. This is a tough divisional game and they are coming off an emotional road win in Dallas last week. Their other two wins came against the two teams listed below, not to mention they lost to the Redskins who have the talent to be great but aren’t really showing it. This is a prime lay-an-egg game for the Rams, only to bounce back next week against the Jags.

Indianapolis Colts -1.5 vs. San Francisco 49ers

This one is quite the battle of the beasts! I haven’t seen the 49ers play this season (thankfully) and I’ve watched the Colts a couple different times. I actually like what Brissett is doing in the absence of Luck. He’s a capable quarterback, raised in the almighty New England system, who is potentially auditioning for a starting gig elsewhere once Andrew Luck returns. I think the Colts start to rally around Luck practicing and nearing a return and come out clicking. The Niners have already mailed this season in and I’d be surprised to see them win more than 2 games this year. This is definitely one of the ones they could win, but with the lack of enticing spreads this week I’m taking the better team at home.

Baltimore Ravens +2.5 at Oakland Raiders

I strongly believe the public saw E.J. Manuel come into that game last week and go 7/8 on his first drive since 1999 and thinks that he can help run this team. What the statline doesn’t show is the soft, prevent coverage Denver was in to let that clock tick down. Yes, Manuel made some nice throws and had a brief showing as an NFL-caliber quarterback, but he’s not going to do it for a full game. This guy throws picks and takes sacks like it’s his job. Baltimore has not been good this year – in fact, they have looked downright terrible at times behind Joe Flacco’s 4/6 TD/INT ratio. There’s two things I like about Baltimore recently though: 1) the emergence of the running game behind Alex Collins and 2) the fact that they can’t get any worse. Maybe that second reason isn’t a great one to bet on, but I like taking those risks as you’re likely going against the public bet which wins more often than not.

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