NonPPR Ranks and Risk Skew Week 2

by John Bush

NonPPR Ranks and Risk Skew Week 2

My rankings are not simply numbers on a page or column. I have to include my metric based risk assessment and a new metric based range skew analysis that I have developed this summer.

I have also included two stand-alone figures that expand the concepts of Risk as I use in fantasy football and the idea of a ranking range skew number. I present the Team landscapes of risk numbers and risk analysis of the positions within the teams.

Let’s begin with Risk. I use that term as a measure of possibilities. Each ranking in this world is a number usually an average. In 100 games played under these same conditions, a player will average at their rank (50 percentile). What about the rare games where they scored much higher or lower? Thus a range of possibilities can exist. You use to understand my rankings; I wanted to declare my view of the player range of possible outcomes.

High Risk means a large set of possibilities, Mid Risk means a narrower set of outcomes and Low Risk implies a very tight range of outcomes. See Figure 1 for a visual description.

Figure 1. Fantasy Football Risk Metric and Analysis. 

Figure 2. Outcome Range Skew

I have divided the positions into groups and present my PPR based rankings with risk and skew from high to low rankings (Green to Red).

As you stroll into my rankings, later on, I predicted that the team’s risk levels can be used to modify your rankings based lineups or bargain hunting in DFS situations. In Figure 3, I simply present for each team a count of their ranked players who are in week 2, High, Mid or Low-risk players.

For example, this week JAC has over half its ranked players at high risk (47%)! My rankings must be considered a best case. MIA and PIT have only 1 player at predicted high risk! Use to evolve your views.

FYI to finish my week’s picture, I consider game scripts, DAPS, Risk, Range Skew and rankings. I use all the data predictions to move to a holistic opinion! Blindly following numbers is not the best way!

Figure 3. Week 2 Team Risk Landscape

I use the team positional data in Figures 4 to further modify my “feeling” about each team’s risk this week!

Figure 4. Week 2 Team Positional Risk Landscape

I use the ranking as a best case and modify my DFS and Lineups based on the other factors of game scripts, DAPs, Risk, and Range Skew. Good Luck!

NonPPR Ranks and Risk Skew Week 2

Defense and Special Teams

Kickers

Quarterbacks

NonPPR Running Backs

NonPPR Tight Ends

NonPPR Wide Receivers

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