Fantasy Baseball: Closing Arguments – Add Pat Neshek

It has been a dramatic week in the world of Closing Arguments. This week I will recommend you add Pat Neshek to your bullpen. The Phillies are now going with Pat Neshek as the closer and his widely available in fantasy baseball leagues. I will also discuss last week’s suggestion to drop Tony Watson as this has been hotly debated.

First things first, here is the sacred Closer list updated as of 09 JUN.

Current Closer	Next in line	Team	League	Notes
Brad Brach	Darren O'Day	Baltimore	American League	Zach Britton DL
Craig Kimbrel	Joe Kelly	Boston	American League
Dellin Betances	Adam Warren	New York Yankees	American League	Aroldis Chapman DL
Alex Colome	Brad Boxberger	Tampa Bay	American League	Boxberger inj
Roberto Osuna	Jason Grilli	Toronto	American League
David Robertson	Tommy Kahnle	Chicago White Sox	American League	Nate Jones DL
Cody Allen	Andrew Miller	Cleveland	American League
Justin Wilson	Francisco Rodriguez	Detroit	American League
Kelvin Herrera	Joakim Soria	Kansas City	American League
Brandon Kintzler	Ryan Pressly	Minnesota	American League
Ken Giles	Luke Gregerson	Houston	American League
Bud Norris	Yusmeiro Petit	Los Angeles Angeles	American League
Santiago Casilla	Ryan Madson	Oakland	American League
Edwin Diaz	Nick Vincent	Seattle	American League
Matt Bush	Jeremy Jeffress	Texas	American League
Jim Johnson	Mauricio Cabrera	Atlanta	National League
A.J. Ramos	Kyle Barraclough	Miami	National League
Addison Reed	Fernando Salas	New York Mets	National League	Jeurys Familia - Blood clot issue
Pat Neshek	Joaquin Benoit	Philadelphia	National League	Hector Neris - removed from closer role
Koda Glover	Shawn Kelley	Washington	National League
Wade Davis	Carl Edwards	Chicago Cubs	National League
Raisel Iglesias	Drew Storen	Cincinnati	National League
Corey Knebel	Jacob Barnes	Milwaukee	National League
Tony Watson	Felipe Rivero	Pittsburgh	National League
Seung Hwan Oh	Trevor Rosenthal	St. Louis	National League
Fernando Rodney	Randall Delgado	Arizona	National League
Greg Holland	Adam Ottavino	Colorado	National League
Kenley Jansen	Sergio Romo	Los Angeles Dodgers	National League
Brandon Maurer	Ryan Buchter	San Diego	National League
Mark Melancon	Derek Law	San Francisco	National League

I want to say a few things about the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Tony Watson situation. I believe this is an illustrative case for the reader to learn some important fake baseball lessons. First the article in the Pittsburgh Post Gazette on Tony Watson and the closing situation is worth reading in its entirety.  Essentially, this is a murky mess going forward. Any of Watson / Nicasio / Rivero may close. As Pirates fans know, the team plays all of the arbitration / super-2 / trade value games to save money. They are a small market team and have to be financially frugal and hope to get lucky with the team essentially outperforming expectations.

After I wrote last week’s article, Watson blew two more save chances in grand fashion. This did not make me feel good at all. In fact, I felt really lousy for the guy. Plenty of writers had commented on his poor performance; I was not alone on an island. It turns out that writing negative things about players, human beings after all, is difficult.

With all of that being said, please don’t spend a lot of FAAB dollars chasing Pirates pitchers. I would still drop Watson from your fake team and stash Nicasio or Rivero if you can hold a guy that isn’t getting a lot of save chances. The Pirates problems are wider than who is the closer. That being said I think they would be better served with Rivero in that role. Even if that hurts Watson’s MLB trade value and forces the Pirates to pay Rivero more next year. I think at some point you have to go for it, but what do I know?

The Tony Watson case is a learning opportunity, and here are my beliefs on Closers in bullet point format.

Tenets of using Closers in standard Fantasy Baseball formats and situations:

• Closers change rapidly / there is high turnover
• Relief pitching can be very valuable to MLB teams, but it is less valuable to teams that don’t frequently enter the late innings with a lead
• Do not assume rational coaching / that best reliever will get the 9th inning [it is debated whether the 9th inning is the ideal spot for your best pitcher]
• Do not bank on MLB trades or lack of trades
• Do not invest a lot of capital in acquiring Closers
• Do not overvalue Closers, especially on losing teams
• Do buy cheap relievers with high strikeouts and good ratios [preferably on good teams] as lottery tickets

There are exceptions to every rule of course, and if you are desperate for saves you may have to break some of the above advice. As always the reader must craft action based on the advice given and their unique situations.

This week’s subject is Pat Neshek of the Philadelphia Phillies. As per Rotoworld, Pat Neshek is the Phillies closer in the short term. This is a similar situation to Milwaukee and Seattle where the closer is demoted to work on their stuff. Pat Neshek is 36 years old, and this season has 21 strikeouts, only four walks and a WHIP of 0.77 per www.mlb.com . What surprised me is that his CAREER WHIP is only 1.03 and he has pitched in 447 games. That is truly amazing. He also holds a career K:BB ratio of 399:124, this is also pretty darn good.

Reviewing the boxes you want to check for closers:

1. Does he have the stuff [good ratios]?
2. Does he play for a good team?
3. Is he “not old” ?
4. Is he the best reliever on the team?
5. Closer role secure and established?

Pat Neshek is a YES to #1 and #4, in my book. However the Phillies are 21-37, this is not good. At 36 he falls into the old player category, even though he may still be effective in season to come. For the 5th question I would say no, in the Rotoworld link it specifically says in the short term. The Phillies being in last place are likely to be traders again at the deadline. Pat Neshek could get moved to a contender and would likely lose the closing gig.

As I mentioned in the tenets of closers, you don’t want to invest a lot and you don’t want to guess too strongly at possible future MLB trades. With all of that out of the way, I would still add Pat Neshek to your fantasy baseball teams in need of saves and good ratios.

 

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