Fantasy Baseball: Closing Arguments – Cut Tony Watson?

This week on Closing Arguments, I tell you to cut Tony Watson and break down the reasons why. A secondary element this week is giving you some tools for you to use when doing your own research. As Closing Arguments moves along, I like giving the reader the ability to evaluate talent on their own.

Here is the updated closer list.

Current Closer	Next in line	Team	League	Notes
Brad Brach	Darren O'Day	Baltimore	American League	Zach Britton DL
Craig Kimbrel	Joe Kelly	Boston	American League
Dellin Betances	Adam Warren	New York Yankees	American League	Aroldis Chapman DL
Alex Colome	Brad Boxberger	Tampa Bay	American League	Boxberger inj
Roberto Osuna	Jason Grilli	Toronto	American League
David Robertson	Tommy Kahnle	Chicago White Sox	American League	Nate Jones DL
Cody Allen	Andrew Miller	Cleveland	American League
Justin Wilson	Francisco Rodriguez	Detroit	American League
Kelvin Herrera	Joakim Soria	Kansas City	American League
Brandon Kintzler	Ryan Pressly	Minnesota	American League
Ken Giles	Luke Gregerson	Houston	American League
Bud Norris	Yusmeiro Petit	Los Angeles Angeles	American League
Santiago Casilla	Ryan Madson	Oakland	American League
Edwin Diaz	Nick Vincent	Seattle	American League
Matt Bush	Jeremy Jeffress	Texas	American League
Jim Johnson	Mauricio Cabrera	Atlanta	National League
A.J. Ramos	Kyle Barraclough	Miami	National League
Addison Reed	Fernando Salas	New York Mets	National League	Jeurys Familia - Blood clot issue
Hector Neris	Joaquin Benoit	Philadelphia	National League
Koda Glover	Shawn Kelley	Washington	National League
Wade Davis	Carl Edwards	Chicago Cubs	National League
Raisel Iglesias	Drew Storen	Cincinnati	National League
Corey Knebel	Jacob Barnes	Milwaukee	National League
Tony Watson	Daniel Hudson	Pittsburgh	National League
Seung Hwan Oh	Trevor Rosenthal	St. Louis	National League
Fernando Rodney	Randall Delgado	Arizona	National League
Greg Holland	Adam Ottavino	Colorado	National League
Kenley Jansen	Sergio Romo	Los Angeles Dodgers	National League
Brandon Maurer	Ryan Buchter	San Diego	National League
Mark Melancon	Derek Law	San Francisco	National League

The table was updated on 01JUN2017.

Washington Nationals updated with Koda Glover off the DL and he seems to be the closer.

We will need to monitor the status of the battles in Milwaukee (Neftali Feliz v. Corey Knebel) and Seattle (Edwin Diaz v Nick Vincent.) Both closers were demoted with the alleged opportunity to work their way back into high leverage situations. So far that has not happened and Knebel and Vincent are getting the saves.

As mentioned above, I am also here to give you some powerful yet basic tools of analysis. You may have heard these discussed elsewhere or during a game. Today, let us discuss the strikeout to walk ratio for pitchers, abbreviated as K:BB. This is a predictive tool. That means it performs a similar function like targets do in fantasy football. Targets allow the fake footballer to estimate how a player may perform in the future. Specifically how many catches a wide receiver may get, based on their targets. However it is just that, you have to factor in the other factors like drop rate / red zone usage etc. The same goes for pitchers when using K:BB. Do they have swing and miss stuff (swinging strike %) or give up a lot of home runs? Do they pitch in a pitcher’s park?

What is a good K:BB ratio? For Pitchers in general we are looking for at least 2:1. Since we focus on closers here, their standards are higher. I would say minimum you want to see 3:1 K:BB ratio but ideally it would be over 4:1. This is just a tool though, it doesn’t guarantee anything and can fluctuate in small samples.

That is the background of K:BB but let’s see it in an actionable case. The case of Tony Watson, closer for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Those who follow me on the twitter machine know I am a Pirates fan (hat to breast.) You must separate fandom from fantasy sports to have any real long term success. Getting that out of the way, let us look at Tony Watson’s 2016 and 2017 numbers.

From this we see Tony Watson had a K:BB of 58:20 -roughly 3:1 last season. This year he has 18 strikeouts compared to 8 walks. That is a K:BB ratio of 2.25:1, which is less than the threshold of 3:1 I mentioned earlier. That doesn’t mean you should instantly cut any relief pitcher who is ever below that number. That would be irresponsible and silly. I expect Tony Watson to improve and turn things around for the remainder of the year. This is at least partially based on his historical performance. From 2014 through 2016, per Baseball Reference, Tony Watson’s had a 201:52 K:BB ratio. That is basically 4:1, and is a really impressive number.

Given that, you might be wondering why I am suggesting to cut him. First of all, there what I have seen watching the games. The old eye test on Tony Watson in 2017 is that he is struggling. Home runs have spiked on him, but that likely won’t continue. He has blown a few saves, but it isn’t just that. He isn’t missing bats, and the outings are not clean. This is a subjective note, but one that fits in with the K;BB numbers we discussed above.

There are other factors we need to look at. With all pitchers, the first question should be his innings pitched and is he approaching some type of limit. No issue there with Tony Watson. He has only appeared in roughly 23 innings. [This is also why he has been less valuable this season.] Does he have a challenger within the Pirates who pitching better? Yes, yes he does. His name is Felipe Rivero *fire emoji*. He is worth another separate article. But for the purpose of Tony Watson just know that Rivero has been pitching much better late in games and was even acquired as the Pirates’ “closer of the future.” There is also Juan Nicasio and Daniel Hudson who have pitched more effectively than Watson.

The biggest X factor with Pirates players and Tony Watson specifically due to his contract nearing its end, is the probability of him being traded at the trade deadline. His team will likely be on the outside of the playoff picture at the end of July (pour out an IC Light 40oz.) and looking to move players such as Watson. This causes a few problems as an owner of Tony Watson. It is likely he moves to a set-up role as an 8th inning for a few reasons. First he is left handed and a lot of managers prefer right handed closers. Secondly his performance this year has been below his historical marks. A new team would feel better about acquiring him and sliding him into the 7th or 8th inning spot and letting him prove his mettle. Guessing at trade partners, outcomes, and future roles is a dicey business. Watson and the Pirates play their home games in a very favorable pitcher’s park. If he is traded it is very likely he will play for a team with more hitter friendly stadium. Now we move on to wrapping this up as clean as the ending to The Sopranos.

What action should you take with Tony Watson? I will break it down simply, cut him unless you are really desperate for saves. Definitely cut him in a points or shallow league. In standard 5 x 5 roto leagues, try upgrade to a high strikeout closer or non-closer even. Deep mixed and only leagues, you’re probably going to have to hold onto him. I would strongly recommend adding Felipe Rivero as a hedge and for standalone value. Basically cut Tony Watson if losing five saves a month won’t kill your team. Also keep in mind the predictive tool of the K:BB ratio when evaluating relief pitchers for your fake baseball team. See you next time.

 

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