SP DL rankings: Go get James Paxton!

Right now in the MLB there is somewhat of a pitcher crisis as highlighted by the fact that as of May 9^th there are 48 starting pitchers on the DL! It seems as if every day another pitcher is either struggling with an injury or is going on the DL. Some of them are legitimate pitching issues and some are just sheer stupidity. Yes I am looking at you Madison Bumgarner! To try and help all of the owners out there I decided it was time to rank the SP’s on the DL based on how I feel about them rest of season.

The guy on this list who intrigues me the most from a buy low point of view in redraft leagues is James Paxton who it looks like should only miss a couple of starts and could be back. If you can get him for a top 30-35 pitcher right now then I think I would do it because he has pitched like a top 20 guy. Equally if I need someone to help me soon then I would look to offer up someone like Bumgarner or Noah Syndergaard to the Paxton owner and see if name value can that deal done.

I have ranked players based on who I would rather have if a 1 for 1 trade was on the table. I haven’t prioritised win now or win later but have simply tried to judge would player X + X weeks of replacement level option be more valuable than player Y + Y weeks of replacement value. For replacement level I have looked in the 14/15 team mixed league level of replacement value to try and get some sort of balance. If you play in shallower leagues (10/12 team) then I might push the guys like Syndergaard and Bumgarner up a spot or two because replacement level in those leagues isn’t a disaster zone. Equally if you play in deeper formats (16+ or NL/AL only) then you might consider pushing the guys who are out for longer down a couple of spots as replacement level in those leagues can be pretty scary!

Tune in each week to hear the team discuss the previous week and take a look forward at what we can hope to expect in the coming week. We will be discussing waiver wire, start sit along with all the major topics surrounding the world of fantasy baseball.

Player	Team	Injury	Expected Back
Corey Kluber	CLE	Lower back strain	May 13th
James Paxton	SEA	Strained left forearm	Possibly mid May
Felix Hernandez	SEA	Right shoulder bursitis	Late May
David Price	BOS	Left elbow strain	Possibly late May
Madison Bumgarner	SF	Left shoulder strain	Post All-star break
Steven Matz	NYM	Left elbow irritation	Possibly late May
Noah Syndergaard	NYM	Torn right lat	Late June/Early July
Jon Gray	COL	Broken bone in left foot	Possibly late May
Rich Hill	LAD	Recurring blister on left hand	Possibly early May
Aaron Sanchez	TOR	Split right fingernail	Possibly mid May
Sean Manaea	OAK	Strained left shoulder	Possibly mid May
Hyun Jin Ryu	LAD	Left hip contusion	Possibly mid May
Aaron Nola	PHI	Lower back strain	Late May
Brandon McCarthy	LAD	Left Shoulder soreness	Mid May
Ian Kennedy	KC	Strained right hamstring	TBD
Cole Hamels	TEX	Strained right oblique	Early July
Edinson Volquez	MIA	Blister on right thumb	May 13th
Wei-Yin Chen	MIA	Left arm fatique	May 12th
Junior Guerra	MIL	Strained right calf	Possibly mid May
Collin McHugh	HOU	Posterior impingement, right elbow	Mid June
Daniel Mengden	OAK	Fractured right foot	Possibly June
Tyson Ross	TEX	Recovery from thoracic outlet surgery	Possibly early June
Seth Lugo	NYM	Partially torn UCL, right elbow	Possibly late May
Drew Smyly	SEA	Left arm flexor strain	Possibly June
Chris Bassitt	OAK	Right elbow surgery recovery	Possibly June
Scott Kazmir	LAD	Sore hip	TBD
Carlos Rodon	CWS	Left biceps bursitis	TBD
JA Happ	TOR	Left elbow inflammation	June
James Shields	CWS	Strained right lat	TBD
Brett Anderson	CHC	Lower back strain	TBD
Homer Bailey	CIN	Bone spurs, right elbow	Possibly mid-late June
Garrett Richards	LAA	Right biceps strain	TBD
Brandon Finnegan	CIN	Strained left shoulder	TBD
Chi Chi Gonzalez	TEX	Partially torn UCL, right elbow	Possibly mid-late June
Roenis Elias	BOS	Right oblique strain	TBD
Tyler Skaggs	LAA	Strained right oblique	TBD
Christian Friedrich	SD	Strained left lat	TBD
Robbie Erlin	SD	Left elbow surgery recovery	Possibly late June
Anthony DeSclefani	CIN	Sprained UCL right elbow	Late 2017
Chad Bettis	COL	Recovery from cancer treatment	Late 2017
Clay Buchholz	PHI	Flexor tear in right forearm	Late 2017

Notes

• Corey Kluber should be back at the end of the week and is by far the number one here
• James Paxton and Felix Hernandez should give Seattle and fantasy owners a boost by both being back around the end of May. However, Paxton has now jumped above his team mate for me.
• David Price is a tentative 4^th in these rankings. I have seen the three guys above him this season all look solid so if I was offered one for one right now he would be just below those guys for me but its close.
• The Bumgarner, Steven Matz and Syndergaard group were tough to rank. I expect all three to be effective when they return and among the top 20 on a per game basis. All three + replacement level, in a 12 or 14 team league, in the interim is better than those below in the rankings.
  • Bumgarner is not back until the all-star break at the earliest but from then on in could easily be the 2^nd or 3^rd best pitcher.
  • Matz will probably be back first but can he stay healthy all year is an issue.
  • Syndergaard’s concern is that he isnt even going to throw a baseball until mid-June at the earliest so we are talking early July at the best for his return and I think it may even be later than that. Once things become a little clearer this could change but ROS give me the Mets pitcher who is going to be back first.
• Jon Gray should come straight back into action firing but any pitcher who I’m nervous about half his starts has a ceiling in my rankings.
• Rich Hill and Aaron Sanchez have nagging injuries which could dog them all year. If both can show relative pain free then they are right around the Bumgarner group. In fact Hill would be above Bumgarner and Sanchez would be above Matz if you could assure me they won’t keep missing time.
• I think the Sean Manaea, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Aaron Nola group can be solid when they return
• Brandon McCarthy was pitching great before this injury but a shoulder issue is always a concern so he slips below the Manaea group because of it.
• Not sure what to make of Ian Kennedy and his hamstring strain. Should be short term and unlikely to be anything that dogs him all season so hopefully he can get right back to being a 5^th/6^th starter in 12 team leagues.
• Cole Hamels has the upside to be much higher but he hasn’t been great this season and so I’ll take Manaea through Kennedy over Hamels plus replacement level right now. The deeper the league the even more this is the case.
• Daniel Mengden, Tyson Ross and Seth Lugo were interesting to rank. I like Mengden and Ross but they don’t have the upside of Lugo. However, the Mets are staring at a lost season and therefore may keep being careful with Lugo. On the counter they need pitching and if Lugo is there they will have to use him.
• Carlos Rodon and JA Happ will move up this list when there are firmer dates for their return. If we knew their dates and it was early June then I would rank them right around Hamels.
• James Shields and Brett Anderson are guys I would consider moving up if we knew their return schedule a little better. However, they would be closer to Drew Smyly and Chris Bassitt.

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