NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 3, 2016

Aaron Rodgers

Its all ready Week 3 of the NFL season. There has been some interesting games with some performances that have caused people to reevaluate where we think teams are. Lets avoid over correcting and see if we can find some winners. The success of Week 1’s 4-1 mark didn’t carry over to Week 2, but we still managed to go 2-3 and push the overall record to 6-4. Lets get back on track in NFL Picks Against the Spread.

Detroit Lions +7.5 at Green Bay Packers

This game was not an easy pick for me but is one that I couldn’t avoid. I expect the Green Bay Packers offense to look great in this game. Aaron Rodgers and company haven’t played great thus far but should break out this week. However the Lions offense has a ton of potential even as bad as they looked a week ago. They still have Theo Riddick and Dwayne Washington to hold down the running back spot. Marvin Jones has looked great and Matthew Stafford should be able to get him and the other weapons involved. The reason this game grabbed my attention was the line movement. 95% of the bets from the public are coming on the Packers and yet the line has moved from 8.5 to 7.5. This means the smart people making the big bets are on the Lions. I’m going to take the Lions to keep this close even if it takes a late score.

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Pick: Lions +7.5

Denver Broncos +3 at Cincinnati Bengals

The Denver Broncos are on the road for the first time this season and will have their hands full with a talented Bengals team. This will be a big test for first year starter Trevor Siemian who hasn’t looked great thus far. That said the Broncos are the team to roll with this week. They have an incredible defense and a reliable run game, two things that will travel well. The Bengals are a team still trying to get their offense rolling and it will be another week before they do. The Broncos get to 3-0 this week.

Pick: Broncos +3

Titans Marcus Mariota

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Tennessee Titans -2 vs Oakland Raiders

The Oakland Raiders were one of the popular picks to take a leap this season and for good reason. They have an impressive offense lead by Derek Carr and Amari Cooper. They also spent a ton of money seemingly upgrading their defense. However the defensive side of the ball has yet to look even decent. They have allowed 500 plus yards in back to back games to opposing offenses. The Titans haven’t looked great in either of their games but are sitting at 1-1 after a late touchdown in Detroit last week. However they have looked strong defensively in the first two games. The Titans offense should have a great opportunity to find its legs at home. This line has also moved from pick to the Titans -2 despite 67% of the money coming in on Oakland. The Titans kick a late field goal and cover the two points in this spot.

Pick: Titans -2

Cardinals -4 at Buffalo Bills

The Arizona Cardinals are heading to Buffalo this week to take on a Bills team that has issues on both sides of the ball. Buffalo fired offensive coordinator Greg Roman after the offense put up 31 points against the Jets. Speaking of the Jets, Ryan Fitzpatrick sliced and diced the Bills defense a week ago. I expect much of the same from Carson Palmer this week. My concern with this game is sometimes the Cardinals play down to their opponents in weird spots but the Week 1 loss should give them enough motivation. The line has moved from Cardinals -5 to -3.5 or 4 depending on where you get it despite 81% of the money coming in on the Cardinals. I’m rolling with the public in this spot and taking the Cardinals.

Pick: Cardinals -4

Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 at Philadelphia Eagles

This line feels pretty weird. Carson Wentz fever has hit a crazy level after getting the Eagles to a 2-0 mark but this is the spot where the other shoe drops. The Eagles faced a Browns team that is a complete mess and a Bears team that had a ton of holes. Chicago also lost Jay Cutler against Philadelphia which didn’t help things. The Steelers have started hot getting to 2-0 also. They are a lot more trustworthy with DeAngelo Williams totting the rock effectively and Ben Roethlisberger finding weapons including Jesse James Eli Rogers in addition to Antonio Brown. The Steeler defense has looked solid thus far including performing great against a talented Bengal defense. Take the Steelers even on the road this week.

Pick: Steelers -3.5

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