NFL Eliminator Challenge: Week 2

Welcome to our second week of our NFL Eliminator Challenge series!  Last week was a good one for us as we went 3-0.  While my Dolphins almost pulled off the upset of the week, the home team overcame and followed our rules.  The Browns showed their true colors (as expected) and the Texans pulled off a victory over the Bears.  One week down, plenty more to go!  Time to extend the streak to two!  Read on and feel free to comment at the end.

Step 1 – Avoid Division Matchups

If you want to look at what division games can do on a Sunday, look no further than the Chargers at Chiefs matchup last weekend.  Many people had the Chiefs picked in an easy victory, but after only a quarter, it looked like the Chargers were going to demolish them.  Fast forward to a thrilling overtime victory and you’ll see why I avoid these games like the plague. I’ve said it once and I’ll say it again, do yourself a favor and avoid the below division games:

  • Jets at Bills
  • Cowboys at Redskins
  • Dolphins at Patriots
  • Ravens at Browns
  • Bengals at Steelers
  • Seahawks at Rams

Step 2 – Avoid Marquee Matchups

Both on Thursday night and on Sunday night we saw two teams with relatively unknown quarterbacks win big games under the bright lights of primetime.  The fact that both the Panthers and Cardinals missed game winning field goals didn’t hurt, but either way it shows you how unpredictable primetime games can be.  I know I expected the Cardinals to win at home Sunday night, but thanks to Step 2, they weren’t my eliminator pick in any of my leagues. Unless you want to take a chance I would avoid the below marquee games:

  • Jets at Bills
  • Packers at Vikings
  • Eagles at Bears

Step 3 – Avoid Picking Against Home Field Advantage

Yes the Bengals beat the Jets on the road, and yes the Packers beat the Jaguars on the road, but neither were blowouts and both teams were very close to losing at the end. While our rule of home field advantage wasn’t the strongest this past weekend, the law of averages only means you should be even more conscious of it this coming weekend.  Be aware and avoid the below games where the favorite is the away team:

  • Chiefs at Texans
  • Jaguars at Chargers

*Vegas might argue that the Chiefs and Jaguars aren’t favored, but after watching the Chargers play once Allen went down, and the Bears hang around Houston longer than I would have liked, I’m not so sure.

Step 4 – Make your pick!

My pick of the week is:

  • Panthers over 49ers

Do you really think the Panthers are going to start the season 0-2?  In front of their home crowd?  Against a 49ers team that is traveling across the country?  I expect a big day out of Cam in this one.

Other options I like this week:

  • Cardinals over Buccaneers

Similar to my thoughts above, the Cardinals are too good a team to start the season 0-2.  After the Buccaneer’s big win last week (against the lowly Falcons), I fully expect the Bucs to fall back down to earth this Sunday and the Cards to get back to their winning ways, getting both teams to a 1-1 record.  Trust in Carson and Fitz to get this one done in high scoring fashion.

  • Lions over Titans

This is similar to my Eagles pick last week.  While I have nothing against the Lions, and they played a good game on Sunday, this pick is all about the other team.  I was very disappointed in the showing by the Titans last weekend, and I expect the bad play to continue this week in Detroit.

Thanks for reading!

Feel free to follow me for great fantasy football advice on twitter @DE_aaron

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