Zero RB: Avoiding Volatility Early in Drafts

Over the past few seasons the strategy Zero RB has started to gain traction first among people in the fantasy football industry then to more casual players. Based upon ADP over the past few seasons it is far from the prefered method. However this strategy absolutely has merit and should be considered.

For those that don’t know, employing Zero RB means typically waiting until the 4th or 5th round before taking a running back. There is often a cluster of players in this range that have question marks but can be reliable week to week plays if things go the right way. For example, last year names like Doug Martin, Latavius Murray, Chris Ivory, and Jonathan Stewart all went in fourth or fifth round range. Three of those players finished in the top 10 Martin RB3, Ivory RB7, and Murray RB10. Stewart finished as RB16 including an impressive stretch in the second half. On the opposite end of the spectrum many of the running backs taken early underwhelmed. Let’s take a look at the success rate of early running backs over the last few seasons.

*All data comes from FFToday.com

2015 was one of the worst seasons in recent history for running backs returning draft day value. Only two players drafted in the top at the position finished there and only four of those guys provided even top 20 seasons. Injuries were a major issues at the position with Jamaal Charles, Le’Veon Bell, and Marshawn Lynch missing significant time. Other names like C.J. Anderson and Jeremy Hill got vaulted based on impressive rookie campaigns but seemingly underwhelmed in their sophomore seasons. As for wide receivers half of the players drafted inside the top 10 finished the season in the top 10 and 7 finished inside the top 13.

Player	Drafted	Finish	Difference	Top 10 Finish
Adrian Peterson	RB1	RB2	-1.0	Yes
Le'Veon Bell	RB2	RB46	-44.0	No
Jamaal Charles	RB3	RB41	-38	No
Eddie Lacy	RB4	RB25	-21	No
Marshawn Lynch	RB5	RB56	-51	No
CJ Anderson	RB6	RB30	-24	No
Matt Forte	RB7	RB9	-2.0	Yes
Jeremy Hill	RB8	RB14	-6	No
DeMarco Murray	RB9	RB18	-9	No
Justin Forsett	RB10	RB43	-33	No
		Avg Diff	-22.9

In 2014 there was a better hit rate but still not as solid as many fantasy owners would like. Half of the running backs drafted in the top 10 finished there with LeSean McCoy just on the outside looking in. All but two of the running backs taken in the top 10 finished with 10 spots of their ADP. Adrian Peterson missed basically the entire 2014 season or the hit rate may have been even better. Despite the success from the running backs, wide receivers still had a better hit rate. Six of the ten wide receivers who were drafted in the top 10 at the position finished there and eight such players finished in the top 15. Reliability for your early round picks is crucial to avoiding early season issues.

Player	Drafted	Finish	Difference	Top 10 Finish
Lesean McCoy	RB1	RB11	-10	No
Adrian Peterson	RB2	RB124	-122	No
Jamaal Charles	RB3	RB7	-4	Yes
Eddie Lacy	RB4	RB6	-2	Yes
Matt Forte	RB5	RB4	1.0	Yes
Marshawn Lynch	RB6	RB3	3	Yes
Montee Ball	RB7	RB89	-82	No
Demarco Murray	RB8	RB1	7	Yes
Gio Bernard	RB9	RB18	-9	No
Doug Martin	RB10	RB48	-38	No
		Avg Diff	-25.6

The 2013 season was a return to top running backs not living up to their draft day value. Four players drafted in the top 10 at the position returned that value. Only five of the players finished within single digit difference of their draft spot with four of those players returning top 10 value. The other five running backs took a significant drop from their ADP forcing their owners to make trades or attack the waiver wire. As for wide receivers drafted in the top 10, five finished in the top ten, six finished in the top twelve, and seven finished within 10 spots of their draft day price.

Player	Drafted	Finish	Difference	Top 10 Finish
Adrian Peterson	RB1	RB6	-5	Yes
Doug Martin	RB2	RB56	-54	No
Marshawn Lynch	RB3	RB4	-1	Yes
Jamaal Charles	RB4	RB1	3	Yes
Arian Foster	RB5	RB44	-39	No
Lesean McCoy	RB6	RB2	-4	Yes
CJ Spiller	RB7	RB27	-20	No
Trent Richardson	RB8	RB34	-26	No
Ray Rice	RB9	RB30	-21	No
Alfred Morris	RB10	RB14	-4	No
		Avg Diff	-17.1

The 2012 season looked much like the 2013 one. Once again it was just four running backs giving their fantasy owners first round value. Six of the ten players had a single digit difference between their ADP and finish in 2012. All six of those players finished in the top 13. And yet among the top 10 wideouts taken on draft day, six finished in the top 10 and 8 finished within the top 13. Once again a higher percentage of wide receivers returned the value owners paid on draft day.

Player	Drafted	Finish	Difference	Top 10 Finish
Arian Foster	RB1	RB2	-1	Yes
Ray Rice	RB2	RB6	-4	Yes
LeSean McCoy	RB3	RB21	-18	No
Darren McFadden	RB4	RB28	-24	No
Chris Johnson	RB5	RB12	-7	No
Matt Forte	RB6	RB13	-7	No
DeMarco Murray	RB7	RB26	-19	No
Marshawn Lynch	RB8	RB4	4	Yes
Jamaal Charles	RB9	RB8	1	Yes
Maurice Jones-Drew	RB10	RB52	-42	No
		Avg Diff	-11.7

In order to find a season where running backs returned their draft day price, you have to go back to the 2011. Six of the players taken in the top ten finished the season there and eight players finished in the top 20. Wide receivers were still reliable with five players returning their draft day price tag and seven finishing in the top 20 at the position.

Player	Drafted	Finish	Difference	Top 10 Finish
Adrian Peterson	RB1	RB8	-7	Yes
Ray Rice	RB2	RB1	1	Yes
Arian Foster	RB3	RB4	-1	Yes
Chris Johnson	RB4	RB16	-12	No
Jamaal Charles	RB5	WR98	-93	No
LeSean McCoy	RB6	RB2	4	Yes
Rashard Mendenhall	RB7	RB19	-12	No
Maurice Jones-Drew	RB8	RB3	5	Yes
Darren McFadden	RB9	RB34	-25	No
Michael Turner	RB10	RB6	4	Yes
		Avg Diff	-13.6

Over the past five seasons wide receivers have returned the prince paid on draft day with more regularity than running backs. Of the top 10 wide receivers taken over the last five seasons 54% have finished in the top 10 at the position, where as running backs have only do so 42% of the time. If you look at those same numbers over the last four years wide receivers jump to 55% while running backs drop to 38%.

Season	RB Hit Rate	RB Average Diff	WR Hit Rate	WR Average Diff
2015	20%	-22.9	50%	-12.9
2014	50%	-25.6	60%	-5.0
2013	40%	-17.1	50%	-17.0
2012	40%	-11.7	60%	-12.0
2011	60%	-13.6	50%	-14.7

RB and WR Average Diff is the number of spots between where they were drafted and where they finished at the end of the season.

Between 2011 and 2013 the average running back and wide receiver have seen almost identical returns on draft day value. In 2011 backs and receivers taken in the top 10 dropped 14 spots on average. It  was much of the same for both positions with a 12 spot drop in 2012 and 17 spot drop in 2013. However over the last two seasons each position has swung opposite ways. Wide receivers saw an impressive drop of just 5 spots in 2014 and 13 spots in 2015. Running backs on the other hand dropped 26 spots in 2014 and 23 spots in 2015.

“You can’t win your league in the first few rounds of your draft, but you can lose it” is a motto I try to live by. Stability early provides a strong base for your team and allows owners to take more risk as the draft marches on. While knowing for certain that a player will not “bust” is not realistic, it does help to have a good feeling your early picks should finish within a certain range. If safety is your goal early in drafts scoop up those wide receivers early and take your running back shots later in the draft.

For more Fantasy Football coverage check out Fake Pigskin’s Angle of Pursuit podcast on iTunes and Stitcher.

Follow @notoriouskro

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