The Second Season of Rookie Drafting

Dolphins Leonte Caroo

In my first article I addressed how the rookie drafting season typically can be divided into three distinct seasons or stages. The early phase which start right after the NFL draft takes place. The mid-phase  which is typically one to two months post NFL draft. The late phase takes place two months after the NFL Draft.

In my previous article I made note of how analysts can influence the shift in ADP as they criticize how others are drafting. So far though, the predictions I’ve made have not come true, but there is still the late phase that might help me look good if things go the way I think they would.

As we begin the second season of rookie drafting, there actually has been quite a bit of a solidification of where some players go. A few of the interesting names to note are Leonte Carroo and Tyler Boyd remaining firmly planted around the 8th – 14th overall pick range. Most owners are not phased by their landing spots or combine performance, respectively.

Based on twitter narrative and some conversations I have with owners and writers, it would seem that quarterbacks and tight ends are making a bit of a rise. Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, and even Paxton Lynch find themselves taken somewhat earlier than before the draft. As for tight ends Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper remain solidly the #1 and #2 tight ends taken and anywhere between pick 23rd – 35th overall picks.

Patriots Malcolm Mitchell

Daniel Shirey – USA TODAY Sports

Malcolm Mitchell is extremely hard to pin down. I’ve seen owners make aggressive trades to grab him early, but I also seen him fall a lot. Charone Peake who was the darling of the off-season didn’t seem to appeal to many owners in this draft. He was more or less a shoulder-shrug type of pick. Alex Collins is consistently getting taken ahead of Jonathan Williams, after the opposite was more true in early May.

Overall, it’s still pretty much a guessing game of who goes where. If you play in IDP leagues, this is the year where you’ll probably see more IDP players going early and often.

My interest is on players who fall out of the draft in this mid-season of rookie draft. Names like Roger Lewis, Marshaun Coprich, Thomas Duarte, Peyton Barber, and Nick Vannett are consistently left off many owner’s draft rankings. It seems like many would like to their chances in the FA to grab one of these names or ignore them altogether. It makes sense really, since 3 of the 4 names were UDFAs, and it’s been consistently written how UDFAs are longshots to be fantasy contributors.

As we continue to look forward in this draft season, I don’t expect many big changes in the top 15 picks.

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