Week 11 FanDuel Top Shelf & Bargain Bin Plays

Week 10 was full of exciting games and none more exciting than the Patriots-Giants game. The Patriots won a nail-biter on a Stephen Gostkowski 54-yard field goal with 1 second left on the clock. The big win didn’t come without cost after Julian Edelman broke his foot in the second quarter. He’ll be out for the remainder of the regular season leaving guys like Brandon LaFell and Danny Amendola left to pick up the slack. Adrian Peterson produced an all-world performance versus the Raiders with 26 carries for 203 yards and a touchdown. AP is proving he’s still one of the top backs in the league and is locked in with a heavy workload. More importantly the Vikings took over sole possession of first place in the NFC North with the Packers falling flat on their face at home versus the Lions. The stage is set for some great games in Week 11 and its worth noting that this is the last bye week. Here are my Week 11 FanDuel Top Shelf and Bargain Bin Plays.

Top Shelf Picks

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Cam Newton- Carolina Panthers $8600

vs Washington Redskins

One thing is for sure and that’s Cam Newton likes to dance and he’s been enjoying every minute of the Panthers’ magical, undefeated season. Superman was left for dead after the loss of Kelvin Benjamin early in preseason but has somehow managed to make do with guys like Ted Ginn and Philly Brown. Newton is getting it done this year with his legs, having rushed 82 times for 366 yards and six touchdowns. He’s on pace to score over 10 rushing touchdowns which would the most since his rookie year when he scored a whopping 14 touchdowns! In Week 11, Newton gets the Redskins, who have allowed two passing touchdowns to every quarterback this year except Ryan Tannehill, Nick Foles and Matt Ryan. I’m expecting a couple of scores through the air and another on the ground making Superman my top quarterback on FanDuel in Week 11. I can’t wait to see him dance and dance a lot in Week 11!

Philip Rivers- San Diego Chargers $8300

vs Kansas City Chiefs

I keep replaying the look on Philip Rivers’ face with his eyes closed on the sideline at the end of the Bears MNF game. Make no mistake, Rivers was once again utterly disappointed, losing another close game but this has become par for the course for the Chargers. He’s arguably having his best statistical season as a pro and is in the top five in just about every passing category. Rivers has had a long time to stew about an embarrassing loss to the Bears on Monday Night Football before last week’s bye. Rivers is going to come out guns blazing in a heated AFC West divisional matchup. With a healthier Antonio Gates and Stevie Johnson, Rivers should lean heavily on his trusted vets. Rivers broke a streak of five consecutive games with at least 300-plus passing yards and two touchdowns against the Bears in Week 9. Look for him to start a new streak this week and make a big statement against the Chiefs.

Bargain Bin Plays

Derek Carr- Oakland Raiders $7700

at Detroit Lions

Derek Carr is rolling into the Motor City red-hot and is going to blow the roof off Ford Field. Despite tossing two picks last week versus the Vikings, Carr still managed to reach at least 300 yards passing and multiple touchdowns, giving him 1,225 yards and 13 touchdowns in four games since Oakland’s bye week. Carr has thrown for 300-plus yards in three straight games with 10 touchdown passes and three interceptions over that time span. He has a favorable matchup this week against a Detroit Lions defense that ranks 28th in yards allowed per pass attempt and tied for last in interceptions (4). Carr is locked and loaded as a QB1 and I like him more this week than higher priced options on FanDuel like Matt Ryan, Andy Dalton, and Tony Romo.

Marcus Mariota- Tennessee Titans $7100

at Jacksonville Jaguars (TNF)

Marcus Mariota has played like a rookie at times and looked amazing at other times this season. This is to be expected from a rookie quarterback so buckle up for a roller coaster ride with plenty of peaks and valleys. In four of his seven starts Mariota has thrown for multiple scores but in the other three starts he’s only managed one touchdown and a disappointing four interceptions. Digging deeper it appears that Mariota prefers playing on the road sporting a 10-0 TD-to-INT ratio away from Music City. The numbers don’t lie and Mariota has feasted on weak defenses. When the matchup has been good he’s performed at a high level. This should be another big week for Mariota considering that the Jaguars defense have ceded the seventh-most fantasy points (18) per game to opposing quarterbacks. Mariota is an excellent GPP play with a very high ceiling in Week 11.

Top Shelf Picks

Running Back

Devonta Freeman- Atlanta Falcons $9100

vs Indianapolis Colts

This week Devonta Freeman returns from the Falcons bye week so he should be rested up. Never mind the fact that Freeman is coming off his worst rushing performance of the season with only 12 carries for 12 yards in Week 9 versus the 49ers. You can bet the house Freeman is going to bounce back in a big way in Week 11 versus the Colts. This week I’m advocating fading Gurley for Freeman. Freeman has a lot more things working in his favor like a strong supporting cast led by Matt Ryan and Julio Jones. The Falcons will get back to the basics this week, attacking the Colts on the ground where they’ve surrendered nine touchdowns for an average of 115 rushing yards per game. Freeman is going to do all the heavy lifting this week in Atlanta — and don’t forget he’s heavily involved in the passing game. Freeman is second on the team in targets (62) behind Julio and third in receiving yards (430). In today’s pass-heavy NFL Freeman is one of the few feature backs who can do it all.

Adrian Peterson- Minnesota Vikings $8900

vs Green Bay Packers

In DFS they say not to chase points and this might appear to be the case with AP but let me explain my reasoning. Peterson has really come on strong lately, rushing for 328 yards and two touchdowns over the past two games. AP leads the NFL in rushing attempts (195), rushing yards (961) and rushing yards per game (106.8). He’s shown his explosiveness with seven runs of 20 or more yards, only Le’Veon Bell has more to his name. This week the first place NFC North leading Minnesota Vikings host a reeling Green Bay Packers team. Norv Turner knows the recipe for beating the Packers is controlling the clock and keeping Aaron Rodgers and the Vikings defense on the sideline. The game plan will call for a heavy dose of AP pounding the rock against a beat up Packers front that have allowed the ninth-most rushing yards per game (116.2).

Bargain Bin Plays

Charcandrick West- Kansas City Chiefs $7100

at San Diego Chargers

If you weren’t buying Charcandrick West after his great performances against the Steelers and Lions I can understand your reasoning, due to the small sample size we had on him. West passed his biggest test of the season in Week 10 versus a stout Denver Broncos defense that has allowed the sixth-fewest rushing yards. West had a season-high 24 carries for 69 yards and a rushing touchdown. Not exactly a blow-you-away performance but there’s more. West put up a Le’Veon Bell type performance in the passing game with three catches for 92 yards and a score through the air. West’s value is heading north and a date with the Chargers is next up on their schedule. The Chargers have allowed 4.9 yards per rush attempt and only the Redskins and Saints have allowed a higher average to opposing backs. We saw Jeremy Langford burn this same Chargers team for some big gains through the air in Week 9 and I expect West to do the same in Week 11.

Latavius Murray- Oakland Raiders $6800

at Detroit Lions

Murray has been hit or miss this season but has been very good versus bad defenses, making him more of a matchup play in DFS. The Raiders offense is humming with Derek Carr emerging as a legit starter who has made opposing defenses respect the Raiders vertical passing game. This has opened up things for Murray and should continue to benefit him, since stacking the box can be costly with Carr under center. Murray should have a bounce-back performance against the Lions, who’ve allowed an NFL-worst 14 touchdowns and rank 28th in rushing yards given up per game.

Frank Gore- Indianapolis Colts $6600

at Atlanta Falcons

The Colts were dealt a crushing blow when Andrew Luck was diagnosed with lacerated kidney. The injury will keep him on the shelf for at least a month if not longer. In the interim Matt Hasselbeck will take over as the new signal caller for the Colts. I’d expect the Colts to dumb down the offense and focus on giving more work to Frank Gore. The Atlanta Falcons have allowed the second-most rushing touchdowns (11) this season. You’ll be hard pressed finding a better value at running back this week on FanDuel than Gore at his current salary of $6600.

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Top Shelf Picks

Wide Receiver

Julio Jones- Atlanta Falcons $9100

vs Indianapolis Colts

Julio Jones is among the safest picks from the wide receiver position each week. He’s rested, coming off a bye, and in the two weeks prior he tallied 22 catches for 299 yards and a touchdown on 30 targets. Expect another monster performance against an Indianapolis Colts defense that ranks 27th in passing yards allowed per game. The Falcons should have no problem putting up points with the Vegas over/under line currently set at 47.5 points for this matchup. While some DFS players might be scared off since Jones draws a tough assignment with Vontae Davis, I’m betting that he balls out in typical Julio fashion. With Nuk drawing a date with Revis Island, Dez working his way back from his foot injury and Antonio Brown on bye, Julio is the elite receiver play in Week 11.

Calvin Johnson- Detroit Lions $8100

vs Oakland Raiders

Megatron was quiet in Green Bay last and almost cost the Lions the win fumbling away the onside kick late in the fourth quarter. He finished with six receptions on nine targets for 81 yards and no touchdowns. Johnson has only scored three touchdowns this season which is alarming but two of them have come at home. The over/under is 48.5 points, so I’m expecting Stafford to chuck the ball 40 plus times in this matchup at Ford Field. I’m envisioning a game from Megatron like he had back in Week 6 against the Bears when he went off with a line of 6/166/2. The Oakland Raiders have allowed the fifth-most passing yards and 16 touchdowns through the air. I wouldn’t be surprised if Megatron finishes Week 11 as the top scoring fantasy wide out.

Mike Evans- Tampa Bay Buccaneers $8000

at Philadelphia Eagles

Mike Evans has been a target hog since the Buccaneers came back from their Week 6 bye. He’s registered 52 targets over the past four games but has only managed to haul in 37 of them. He’s suffered from a case of the “dropsies” like another second year player, Jordan Matthews. Over that time period he has 488 yards and two touchdowns which computes to an average of 122 receiving yards per game. It’s another week for Evans to dominate targets with ASJ and Vincent Jackson on the shelf. Winston has his cross-hairs zeroed in on Evans and I don’t expect anything to change this week in South Philly.

Bargain Bin Plays

Jordan Matthews- Philadelphia Eagles $6300

vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Jordan Matthews has been a maddening player to own in season-long leagues and play in DFS. Matthews only has two touchdowns on the season and before scoring the game-winner versus Dallas in Week 9, he had been held under 100 yards receiving since Week 1. But here’s the thing, Mark Sanchez is taking over under center for Sam Bradford this week. Sanchez and JMatt have a history. It was around this same time last year (Week 10) that Jordan Matthews exploded with Sanchize tossing him the pigskin. In a two game stretch last year (Weeks 10-11) Matthews had 12 receptions for 245 yards and three touchdowns. He’s struggled with a hand injury which could have contributed to a lot of the drops he’s struggled with this season. A date with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, a team that has allowed 19 touchdowns through the air should mean good things for Matthews.

Danny Amendola- New England Patriots $6100

vs Buffalo Bills

If you’re playing in season-long leagues you already know that Danny Amendola was the most highly sought after FA on the waiver wire, and one worthy of blowing ALL of your remaining FAAB money. Hopefully you listened to The Angle of Pursuit podcast last week when we told you to go pickup Amendola as a stash. A week later Danny Amendola is punching his golden ticket as an every week WR2 with WR1 upside. The injury to Julian Edelman cements this claim and Amendola should easily soak up 10-plus targets a week. Edelman is hard to replace, much like Dion Lewis, but Amendola is healthy and making plays. Brady targeted Amendola 11 times this past week versus the Giants and he managed to haul in 10 passes for 79 yards. In his three games with at least nine targets this season Amendola has been money with 25 receptions while averaging 90 yards receiving. I’m trusting Amendola this week in my cash and GPP games and at $6100, he’s an absolute steal.

Top Shelf

Tight End

Rob Gronkowski- New England Patriots $8400

vs Buffalo Bills

Gronk destroyed the Buffalo Bills defense in Week 2 with seven receptions for 113 yards and a touchdown on 13 targets. Expect more of the same on Sunday, especially since his workload will increase with Edelman sidelined. Brady is going to force-feed Gronk the ball and even if Rex Ryan schemes to take him out of game he’s still going to get his. As we witnessed last week versus the Giants, it only takes one big play for Gronk to pay off big.

Bargain Bin Play

Clive Walford- Oakland Raiders $4800

at Detroit Lions

Clive Walford is emerging out in Oakland and for a rookie tight end that’s quite an accomplishment. While it’s a fact that it’s hard to trust a rookie tight end since they typically take time to develop, I will target one that is known for his red zone prowess. Clive Walford is a former basketball player and uses his 81 inch wingspan very effectively against his opposition. He is a big target for Derek Carr standing at 6-foot-4 inches. Walford has some huge mitts (10.5”) and for a big guy demonstrates natural soft hands. Clive has scored in three of his last four games and in reached pay-dirt in back-to-back games. This week Walford draws a favorable matchup with a Lions defense that has allowed eight touchdowns to opposing tight ends. He’s an excellent value at his current FanDuel salary of $4800.

Defenses To Target

Philadelphia Eagles- $4900

vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Philadelphia’s opponent, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, ranks 24th in points scored per game, has committed the fifth-most turnovers and is tied for the fourth-fewest passing touchdowns. If the Eagles jump out to an early lead, the Bucs could have trouble scoring because rookie quarterback Jameis Winston will be forced to throw often and he’s struggled to consistently move the ball. Let’s not forget about the threat that Darren Sproles poses in the kick/return game. The Eagles defense has been very opportunistic this season and look for that to continue in Week 11 versus Tampa Bay.

New York Jets- $4700

at Houston Texans

The Gang Green travel to Houston to face a Texans team that is riding high after playing their best game of the year on Monday Night Football. Brian Hoyer suffered a concussion in the game versus the Bengals and is doubtful to play in this matchup. In comes T.J. Yates as the next man up for the Texans. Yates hasn’t passed for over 98 yards and more than one touchdown in a game since 2011. The Jets have a nasty front seven and will bring the heat keeping the pressure squarely on Yates. You have to downgrade all your Texans and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Jets shutout the Texans if Hoyer sits. The table is set for the Jets to have their way on Sunday and you can bet on some turnovers from a journeyman quarterback.

11-19-2015 11-09-18 AM11-19-2015 11-13-08 AM

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