Fantasy Football 2QB Dynasty Strategy: Looking Forward

Fantasy Football 2QB Dynasty Strategy: Looking Forward

Today (October 27^th) is my birthday.  My wife’s plan for us is to celebrate by going out this coming Sunday and having me thrown out of an airplane.  If I’m nice to her between now and then, she might pay a little extra to get me a parachute.  I’m not quite sure how she managed to work it out like that.

In exactly five years from today, I’ll be turning 50.  Right about that same time, Russell Wilson will still be younger (31 at that time) than Ben Roethlisberger (33) is today.  And Ben Roethlisberger will still be playing if he sticks around as long as Tom Brady has.

It’s the end of October and time to take a look at our two quarterback dynasty teams to see where the holes are, where the strengths are, and where we can make changes going forward.  If you were reading my articles earlier in the season, you heard me mention “2020 Vision.”  This is the strategy of drafting a team that will be a force to be reckoned with for at least the next five years (because then it will be the year 2020, get it?)

Yeah, I can’t use that phrase once January gets here, I know.

Take a look at these two teams in a 10-team league I’m in and the current age of their top players now and in 2020:

 

Team 1:				Team 2:
Matt Ryan	30			Tom Brady	38
Ryan Fitzpatrick	32			Ben Roethlisberger	33
Russell Wilson	26			Jay Cutler	32
Danny Woodhead	30			Mark Ingram	25
Isiah Crowell	22			Carlos Hyde	25
Matt Jones	22			LeGarrette Blount	28
Ameer Abdullah	22			Ronnie Hillman	24
Shane Vereen	26			Bishop Sankey	23
Dion Lewis	25			Denard Robinson	25
A.J. Green	27			Antonio Brown	27
Allen Robinson	22			Mike Evans	22
Pierre Garcon	29			Allen Hurns	23
Jordan Matthews	23			Doug Baldwin	27
Brandin Cooks	22			Michael Floyd	25
DeVante Parker	22			Roddy White	33
Stefon Diggs	21			Dez Bryant	26
Travis Kelce	26			Delanie Walker	31
Eric Ebron	22			Gary Barnidge	30
Austin Seferian-Jenkins	23			Martellus Bennett	28
Average:	24.84			Average:	27.63
		In five years:				In five years:
Average QB age	29.33	34.33		Average QB age	34.33	39.33
Average RB age	24.50	29.50		Average RB age	25.00	30.00
Average WR age	23.71	28.71		Average WR age	26.14	31.14
Average TE age	23.67	28.67		Average TE age	29.67	34.67

 

To be fair, the two teams are both 6-1 currently and team B has roughly a 20 point lead over team A at the moment.  But which team is built for dynasty fantasy football?  Team B will have to replace nearly all their players over the next five years while team A has a little bit more breathing room and can focus on getting the best player available in the drafts rather than focusing on staunching the loss of playmakers.  The oldest quarterback on team A is the same age as the youngest quarterback on team B.  Even more so for tight ends where there is a two year gap between the oldest on one team and the youngest on the other.

It will certainly be a bloodbath if these two teams get to the playoffs and go up against each other this year, but five years down the road team B may be struggling a lot more to cover positions with the top skilled players.  Team A doesn’t even have to draft to replace players for a few years.  What a luxury!  That breathing room is a nice thing to have.  Imagine getting to a dynasty draft and saying to yourself “I like this wide receiver in front of me, but if I don’t get a tight end, I’m not even going to make it to the playoffs this year.”  You’d be essentially pinning your hopes on a guy who may or may not break out while letting top players at other positions pass you by.

What does each team need to do?  Team A has one start-ready tight end while team B has three.  Chances are team A can get one off the waiver wire for a week or so, but what if injury happens?  Team B has a stellar lineup and possibly a better shot at the championship, but how much longer can Tom Brady keep it going?  And once he’s gone, who will cover a catastrophe like Ben Roethlisberger’s recent knee injury?

Put your own team in a spreadsheet like this.  You can start to see the patterns of talent versus age.  Take shots on younger guys, but don’t just fill your roster with untalented youth because they’re young.  You need to win a championship every year, not just the first year.  And you also need to not focus so blindly on the future that you can’t win because you’re continually kicking that can down the road.

2020 vision keeps you focus on the foreseeable future in two quarterback leagues.  You don’t want to be pushed into such a corner that you’re always trying to cover your quarterback’s bye weeks and injuries (especially in a 12 or 14 team league) with scrubs from the waiver wire.  Start thinking of improvements to your team’s heath now, in week 7.  Even if it’s just to get an equally good player with a 3 year “breather” window.  Maybe look at trading Ben Roethlisberger for Blake Bortles plus Garrett Grayson; or Tom Brady for Teddy Bridgewater plus Alex Smith.  If a team has depth and wants to cash some of it in, you might be giving them the offer they were waiting on.

Hey, take it from a guy looking at 50 years of age creeping up on him.  A three year breather window is a blessing.  Those years will catch up eventually like the ground rushing up at you on a birthday skydiving trip.  They’re inevitable.  Gliding into years three, four and five on a big billowy parachute is quite a happy place to be.

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