Week 11 Rankings With Uncertainty

Week 11 Rankings With Uncertainty

Week 11 Rankings With Uncertainty. I have discussed decisions under uncertainty before in my many articles.

The approach I use is synthesis of many data streams that provide input for different scenarios that may exist in fantasy football.

Additionally, I also move from the Top-Down Broad into the Specific. Having been a scientist for 35 years, deconstruction is a strong method for investigating hypothesis testing and research findings.

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Week 11 Team Average PPR Based Rankings 

Week 11 Rankings With Uncertainty. The framing of the week’s teams by highlighting their average fantasy sports professor’s rankings (FSPR) is essential to finding sweet spots for line-ups and DFS plays.

(GREEN High/RED-Weak Plays)

The top teams in Week 11 for fantasy are LAC/PIT/KC/WAS/TB/GB, and many have a solid matchup, and some could surprise this week. I move towards these teams in DFS.

The bottom teams here are NYJ/JAC/DEN/TEN/NE/CAR/HOU  for week 11 and these are the extremes. Additionally, these teams have various issues this week. Move away from them, especially for any gamble or marginal DFS plays.

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Week 11 Team Rankings

I constructed this Bar graph to visualize the pecking order of teams in week 11 via scaled team rankings. understanding the environment of a matchup must include a holistic view see below. I do not recommend ignore the team factor for your DFS 11 and line-ups. 

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Team Level Uncertainty

Week 11 Rankings with Uncertainty. Thus, I begin with a look at this week’s Team level of uncertainty.

  • High uncertainty suggests deeper thinking and more caution in DFS and line-ups.
  • On the other hand, low uncertainty teams can provide us with DFS stacks and deep players into our line-ups.

The table below presents week 11’s UNC numbers from each team (High, AVG, and Low). Additionally, I calculated a ratio of Team players High or AVG in UNC vs. Low UNC (HA/L).

Interestingly, this ratio gives a look into the Team’s overall uncertainty for your consideration. Finally, I colorized the numbers and team names to give the overall UNC landscapes.

Move toward the lower UNC teams in DFS and away from the higher UNC teams. For example, move to IND/DEN/PHI/WAS/LAC/TEN/MIA/BAL/LAR/GB/NO  (bold picks for some). 

Additionally, I will be moving away from DET/CAR/CLE for DFS.  In redrafts, the top players from these teams only. Beware of deeper plays.  I also, have concerns of KC/PIT/TB this week. 

 

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Week 11 Team Uncertainty Landscape

I use it as a resource for a visual view of lineups and DFS plays for week 11. Good for close choice separations. 

Week 11 Rankings With Uncertainty

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Week 11 Team Summary of Ranks and Uncertainty

I use to take a mental snapshot for DFS/Lineups for week 11. Even though PIT/KC are highly ranked, I still see higher uncertainty within them. Questions with murky answers. 

Week 11 Rankings With Uncertainty

 

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Player PPR Rankings with UNC Levels by Positions

Week 11 Rankings With Uncertainty. These following figures place all players within their positions of my rankings and uncertainty levels.

Use these metrics to establish levels for your DFS and Line-ups plays.  Make sure that these are combined with my Match-Up Analysis upcoming. Scan first, then drill down to ask questions.

Each Data Block consists of:

  • Team 
  • Players 
  • HIGH AVG or LOW UNC
  • FSPR under their UNC level.
  • FSPR Ranking 

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Defenses

PIT Best DEF Low UNC High Ranks

Week 11 Rankings With Uncertainty

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KICKERs

Lutz seems the best K with his lower UNC. 

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Quarterbacks

Herbert seems to be an interesting play. 

Week 11 Rankings With Uncertainty

 

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Running Backs

Usual Suspects but some concerns after the top 4 RBs in week 11. Caution. 

Week 11 Rankings With Uncertainty

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Week 11 Rankings With Uncertainty

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Tight Ends

Kelce safe in a mix of others High in uncertainty. Caution. 

Week 11 Rankings With Uncertainty

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Week 11 Rankings With Uncertainty

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Week 11 Rankings With Uncertainty

 

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Wide Receivers

Hill is the 2nd WR but high UNC. I have concerns about many highly ranked plays this week. Note the higher UNC in the 2nd to 9th WRs. Do not be comfortable in your “sure” WRs this week. 

Week 11 Rankings With Uncertainty

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Week 11 Rankings With Uncertainty

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Week 11 Rankings With Uncertainty

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Week 11 Rankings With Uncertainty

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Week 11 Rankings With Uncertainty

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Professor’s MATCH-UP ANALYSIS

Week 11 Rankings With Uncertainty. I present the heart of my week 11 analysis for line-ups, and DFS plays. Fantasy Football is a weekly game that places Teams into different environments, and outcomes are based on those situations.

Firstly, I use Vegas Metrics to frame the scoring potential of all games. Move toward higher scoring games.

Secondly, I bring onto the table the match-ups defense against the positions metrics (DAPs) to see the sweet spots and traps for the players.

Thirdly, I like to go toward safer, easy spots for players, but stud players are those that can fight through adversity. Weak deeper plays are only advised in higher-scoring games.

As the predicted Vegas points go down, you should get more cautious except in tournament DFS where going contrary can be profitable. 

Finally, I focus on talent, not hype! Ignore the sizzle and chew into the game bottom lines!

Weather: Wind >20mph is a factor in passing—tone down your picks as needed.

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Week 11 Vegas High Scoring Games (above 49 total game points)

Week 11 Rankings With Uncertainty. The table below lists the 4 games that Vegas suggests will be high scoring this week, and thus, you should move toward these games for DFS Stacks, etc., as well as deeper plays in your line-ups. You must still use common sense but look extra hard to find surprises in these games.

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Example Analysis- LV vs. KC

In my process, I present within the Vegas scoring games types followed by my defense against the positions DAPs. 

When LV has the ball they face a +40 tough defense. The KC has a strong passing defense 31/34/66 QB-WR-TEs. Waller is ranked at 115 but high unc! 

Jacobs can have a strong day vs a +75 RB DAP. He is a 98 High UNC play.

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KC offense gets a nice +63 DAP and should score alot. Their RBs get a +73 RB DAP and CEH is ranked at 79 High UNC and Bell is at 51 High UNC. They will take from each other. Hence a good matchup but too many mouths to feed. Sad! 

The KC passing gets a +49/67/54 DAP. These are average to slightly nice. I expect a good not great game. Not sure good for a DFS stack this week in cash games. I will focus on Kelce at 138 Low UNC! and Hill at 100 but High UNC. 

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Week 11 Vegas Above Average Scoring Games (above 45 total game points)

Week 11 Rankings With Uncertainty. The table below lists the 8 games that Vegas suggests will be above average scoring this week, and thus, you might move toward these games for DFS Stacks, etc. as well as deeper plays in your line-ups. They could be solid DFS plays but be thoughtful.

 

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Week 11 Vegas Below Average Scoring Games (44 total game points or less)

Week 10 Rankings With Uncertainty. 1 Game predicted to be low scoring—caution in using players in here.  

 

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Week 11 Rankings With Uncertainty.

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