Week 10 Targets and Touches

Week 10 Targets and Touches

Week 10 Targets and Touches. My weekly routine is analyzing various fantasy football metrics, including:

  • Snaps per Second of Offensive Possession. See Below
  • Snaps Report for this Week
  • Targets and Touches
  • Vegas Over-Under Lines
  • Defense Against the Position
  • My Rankings with Uncertainty Analysis. (Coming Saturday)

We must deal with decisions under uncertainty in fantasy football.

**A range of potential futures can be identified at level three uncertainty. A limited number of key variables (See Above) define that range, but the actual outcome may lie anywhere within it. There are no natural discrete scenarios.

** https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/strategy-under-uncertainty#

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Weeks 5 to 10 Team Target Averages 

Week 10 Targets and Touches. I always begin in a top-down approach, and, n this case, I focus on the top target generating teams. Clear value in PPR scoring! 

Additionally, I scaled the team target averages to the league average. How does each team stack-up to the league average? I colored the top teams with Green colorization. CHI/LAR/PIT/DEN/SEA/CIN/LAC/TB are the top targeting teams. On the other hand, note NE/MIA/LV/CLE/NYJ/BAL/MIN/TEN/NYG are the lower targeting teams. Move to the deeper WRs in the top teams and avoid fringe pass-catcher in the lower targeting teams. 

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Bar Graph of Team Scaled Target Averages  Weeks 5 to 10

Week 10 Targets and Touches. The visual view of the team targets is shown below.  Visual views seem to stay with me more than columns of numbers. 

Additionally, consider why? What is going on in the top and bottom teams? Game Scripts etc. and is there a change this week? 

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Target Efficiency Weeks 5 to 10

The Metrics are shown in the table below, which contains: 

Team Name with High/Low Designations by color: 

  • Total Average of Team Targets High to Low-Blue to Red
  • Total Average of Targeting Efficiency – Targets per Sec. Purple to Yellow
  • AT/TE Ratio. This metric compares the team’s targets and their efficiency. 

The top target efficiency teams-green stained- are LAR/CHI/JAX/DEN/PHI/SEA/TB/DET. These teams use their targets well. 

The higher AT/TE teams are lower efficiency teams of note. CIN is extreme. They have 4.6 targets but poor efficiency. The Rookie QB is showing his lack of experience. ATL/LV/BAL/BUF/PIT are also high in the AT/TE ratio implying a poor efficiency. Caution. 

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Visual Landscapes of Targets and Efficiency

Note. Efficiency is a green line/Total Target Averages are red line/Pink Line is league Efficeny average. Red Stars annotate the poor efficiency teams vs. league average -pink line. I did not mark the bottom targeting teams – right hand of the graph as they are weak all around in passing. 

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Targeting Averages Week 5 to 10 vs. Team Positional Usages 

Week 10 Targets and Touches. I continue a drill down to see each team’s position in targeting averages weeks and positional usages from Weeks 5 to 10.

The actionable data here is what you can deduce from the trends.

Additionally, This landscape view is superior to what happened last week only. This broad view is a skill needed to improve your Fantasy Football Playing.

I look for extremes and unusual/surprising metrics. In these data, Teams are going to grade out higher in WRs (more of them) so if a team is overusing its RB or TE then the WR usages will be lower and standout.

EXTREMES= GREEN High Usages vs. RED Low Team Usages. Note!  I consider the strong vs. weak positional usages. Find those positions and use those extremes for week 11 DFS and Line-Ups. 

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ARI/ATL/BAL/BUF

 

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Bar Graph Patterns

Also, I include a visual bar graph of the team positional usages as well. Give this a soft scan for developing opinions for DFS and lineups. Each block of data included 4 teams at a time. I like to see the bar and line patterns. 

Find interesting situations! EXTREMES= GREEN High Usages vs. RED Low Team Usages. Note! 

Week 10 Targets and Touches

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CAR/CHI/CIN/CLE

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DAL/DEN/DET/GB

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HOU/IND/JAX/KC 

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LAC/LAR/LV/MIA

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MIN/NE/NO/NYG

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NYJ/PHI/PIT/SEA

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SF/TB/TEN/WAS 

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Targets and Usage Efficiency Within Positions.

Week 10 Targets and Touches. You must also consider the player’s ranking among their position. 

High Use within the Team but Low in the League is different than High and High.

That should give your concerns for league lower players in targets. Weak teams are known to have poor depth in PPR scoring. Scan through the positions and find the unusual and extremes. ** Assuming FF data is normally distributed?

In an extreme value analysis, extreme events are defined to be those observations in a sample which are unusually high, or low, and are therefore considered to occur in the tails of a probability distribution.

Standard statistical methods are designed to characterize the mean behavior of a process or data sample and are therefore not generally useful for capturing this tail behavior.

https://www.lancaster.ac.uk/maths/research/statistics/extreme-value-statistics/

The following positional based tables have been sorted by Week 5 to 10 Team Targeting Positional Usages vs. Average Targets. Move to the strong using teams. 

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Running Backs Targeting Table and Bar Graph RBs Targets vs. Usages.

  • Top teams (GREEN) in RB Usages are NO/CAR/WAS/JAX/GB/CIN/NE/CHI, all above 29% in RB usages!
  • Weak RB Team Usages (RED) are TEN/PIT/SF/ATL/BAL/LAR/NYJ/CLE below 22% usages

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Week 10 Targets and Touches

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Tight Ends

  • TE Targeting Centric Teams (Above 36% Usage) are NYG/DET/TEN/KC/PHI/BAL/SF/LV
  • SEA/CIN/GB/BUF/NO/ARI/NE/CAR all below 25% TE Usages.

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Week 10 Targets and Touches

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Wide Receivers  

  • The top WR usage teams are NE/ARI/NYJ/HOU/CAR/SEA/BUF/MIN/LAR/ATL, with WRs used above 48%. Key deeper WRs are viable on these teams.
  • LV/NO/WAS/PHI/KC/DET/BAL/SF/NYG/JAX are poorer WR Targeting using teams who are using the RB and/or TE to compensate. Beware depth WRs on these teams.

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Week 10 Targets and Touches

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Team Positional Player Week 5 to 10 Targets, Target Averages, and DIFFs

Week 10 Targets and Touches. I next drill down into these metrics within each Team. Fantasy Football is a weekly Team based game!

Secondly, I added the player usages within their teams for the “pecking order” and DIFFs to catch improving or declining players. 

These sorted tables contain:

  • Team
  • Position
  • Player
  • Targets Week  5 to 10                         ( High to Low – Green to Red)
  • Target Averages                                 ( High to Low – Blue to Red)
  • Late vs. Early DIFFs                          (High to Low -Purple to Yellow)
  • 2 Weeks DIFFs                                    (High to Low -Purple to Yellow)

I like to use these metrics as a reference in the context of Vegas and DAPs. Is the pecking order real? Is the production real, and will be replicated this week? Find the unusual and extreme. 

My Week 11 Rankings are out tomorrow, FYI. 

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Week 10 Targets and Touches

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Late vs Early Player Targets Averages

Focus is on the more weekly average changes in player targeting. Find ascending players and move toward those players. Move away from declining players. 

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Last 2 Weeks Player Targeting Differences

What players are up vs. down. Caution. 2 Week Variation is an issue, so I included the last 3 weeks. Example Jacobs 4 targets last week vs. 1 and 1 weeks 9 and 8. Seems to imply improving? But was last week an abnormality? You decide. 

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Running Backs AVG Targets and DIFFs

Extremes are of interest. Scan in the DIFFs for short/long term changes—However, Targets are king, and I want to leave you with the High to Low Player Targeting Averages. 

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Tight Ends AVG Targets and DIFFs

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Wide Receivers AVG Targets and DIFFs

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Running Back Touches with % Rushing vs. Receiving (ATTs vs. Targets)

Week 10 Targets and Touches.  RBs are the most difficult position in fantasy football to calculate because they both rush and catch. That fact then opens more possibilities within the game. Therefore, we must consider that extra dimension for RBs, especially in PPR leagues. 

The easy RB to figure is one that does both catch and rush. The harder RBs are the pass-catcher only types as they are game script dependent. Thus if you have a pass-catcher RB (i.e., Edmonds 71% catching), you must consider the way that game might go. See Vegas and DAPs as a foundation for your thinking. 

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Team Level RB Rushing Attempts vs. Targets with Rush/Pass Ratios

Week 10 Targets and Touches.  We must understand the nature of each team towards its use of RBs in rushing and passing.

Firstly, I calculated each Team’s Rush/Pass Ratio and Sorted all teams by that metric. Next, I note extreme in RB ratios. I highlighted the extremes using RRR vs. TTT. Finally, use these metrics for actionable data for Week 11 DFS.

All Rushing Teams Stained Purple TEN/PIT/LAR/MIN/MIS/NYJ/CLE/ATL/LV

All Pass-Catching Teams Stained Yellow SEA/CAR/KC/NE/WAS/NO/SF/PHI/IND/CHI/LAC/GB

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TEAM RB Rush/Target Ratios

Rushing Biased (Green) to Pass-Catching RB Teams from Left to Right.

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Team Level Rushing Attempts vs Targets with Averages. 

It is important to determine each RBs activity in rushing vs. pass-catching. Observing the trends is essential for considering this week’s performance. I would stroll through to get a sense of the trends. 

These tables contain:

  • 4 Teams

  • RB Players

  • Rush ATTs Weeks 5 to 10

  • Targets Weeks 5 to 10

  • Obvious Players are shown as Rushers or Pass-catchers or Both. 

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Team RB ATTs RUSH vs Targets Pass-Catching Tables Weeks 5 to 10

I go through these data tables by asking questions and determining the answers. Each Player must be addressed.

Time intensive for sure. If you want it on a platter you are not reading this then. Its ok because I do these articles for me as well as my readers. It makes me do the work. I tell my students chop the wood then you get the fire not get the fire first then someone produces the wood? 

Let me narrate, for example, looking at these metrics. Who is each RB? Rusher/Pass Catcher? Both One or the Other or Neither? I Highlighted the metrics for an easy view!  For example, Drake is the rusher, vs. Edmonds is the pass-catcher.

These tables have:

  • Team
  • Player
  • % Team Rushing
  • Avg Atts colorized       Green Z vs. Red X High to Low.
  • Avg of Targets               Green Z vs. Red X High to Low
  • % Team Targets
  • Colorization of Player Name Green-Rusher, Blue-Pass Catcher, and Yellow-Both. 

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I consider the level of committee work in thinking about this week’s games. What is going to change? New Faces or New Levels of Activity?

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Week 10 Targets and Touches.

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