Week 5 Thursday Night Fight

 

Week 5 Thursday Night Fight

Week 5 Thursday Night Fight. The TB vs CHI Game should be a below average scoring affair. That is never optimal for PPR leagues and DFS. The key players should be the focus. I would not dive deep into the secondary players

Vegas predicts 3/4 TDs for TB as the favorite vs 2TDs for Chicago. If the TB team get CHI down a lot, Ronald Jones the RB could get a nice game script in the second half of this game. 

Week 5 Thursday Night Fight. Slide2

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Defense against the position (DAPS)

Week 5 Thursday Night Fight. The defense against the position (DAPS) metrics for this game is shown below. High numbers point to an easy situation vs lower number are suggesting a tough defense to that position.

Week 5 Thursday Night Fight. Slide3

TB DAPs 

Week 5 Thursday Night Fight.  When TB has the ball, they face an overall tougher game in passing vs average in receiving and rushing. Firstly, Brady fights into a tough 26 out of 100 vs Evans and the Other WRs who get a 44/100 slightly tough DAPs. Secondly, I do note the TE (Gronk? Brate?) get an easy 59/100 situation. DFS showdown play? Finally, the RBs from TB (Jones?) get an average DAP of 53/100. He could be a volume stack in here. 

CHI DAPs

Week 5 Thursday Night Fight.  When CHI has the ball, they face an average passing/receiving environment but a tough rushing defense. That seems to suggest CHI will use passing to attack the TB defense. Firstly, Monty get a tough tough 8/100 RB DAP. He will show his worth tonight. Be cautious on him. Secondly, Foles will be passing and passing vs a 44/100 QB DAP (slightly tough) while his targets of the WRs get a 69/100 easy situation. If Foles can stay focused he can reward players of Robinson and Graham the TE vs a 51/100 TE DAP. 

 

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TB Player Rankings and Uncertainty Levels 

Week 5 Thursday Night Fight. I use my rankings of players from 0 to 100 (worst to best) along with my uncertainty analysis. High UNC players are predicted to have a wide floor vs ceiling while lower UNC player do not. High UNC may be more of a gamble to use in lineups and DFS. 

Brady is always a High UNC play at 56 tonight given his age and CHI Defense. Jones is the safe play at 81 low UNC! Gronk at 54 average UNC could score tonight. Evans and Miller are also High UNC plays at 65 and 56. I see the CHI defense as a limit to the TB pass scoring. 

Week 5 Thursday Night Fight. Slide5

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CHI Player Rankings and Uncertainty Levels 

Week 5 Thursday Night Fight.  Foles the CHI QB is a 29 average UNC. He must double his ranking tonight for CHI to win. Monty is a good RB and a do have him at 75 low UNC but not the week’s strongest play as discussed in the DAPs analysis. He will have to catch check downs to stay in the hunt for a nice night. Robinson could be the best play of all the players at 96 as I have him beating the TB defense for a score or two. I would gamble on him only in tournament DFS. Patterson could be used in a trick play as a RB but not going to use him. 

Week 5 Thursday Night Fight. Slide4

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My SNAPs Report for WEEK 5 is here

Week 5 SNAPs Report

 

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