We are almost back to full CFB DFS slates where I am not forced to scrounge the internet for information on Abilene Christian and Houston Baptist football! As always, I focus on DraftKings targets each week here on Fake Pigskin. My goal is to identify three to four low-cost/reasonable floor targets as foundational pieces for all my lineups.
This way, you start by boosting your remaining price per player in the range to roster as many high floor/high upside guys who we all anticipate substantial statistical output from.
Here are the Vegas odds (favorites in bold) for the 11 games included in the Saturday afternoon DK contest:
|UT@TTU 3:30PM ET|||18|||70.5|
|[email protected]OKST 3:30PM ET|||6.5|||51.5|
|[email protected]PITT 12:00PM ET|||3|||55|
|[email protected]OU 12:00PM ET|||28|||61|
|[email protected]CINCY 3:30PM ET|||13|||45|
|[email protected]LSU 3:30PM ET|||16.5|||57|
|UGA@ARK 4:00PM ET|||28|||53|
|[email protected]AUB 12:00PM ET|||7|||49.5|
|UF@MISS 12:00PM ET|||14|||57|
|[email protected]UV 4:00PM ET|||4.5|||45.5|
|GT@SYR 12:00PM ET|||7.5|||52|
For example, I am not going to come at you with hot suggestions like Sam Ehlinger and Chuba Hubbard at running back. What I will do is point out that rostering the expensive duo will leave your average remaining price per player at $5,400. This is the price range I will focus on each week. Before it’s all canceled, let’s get to this week’s path toward CFB DFS greatness!
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Briley Moore | TE | Kansas State $3,800
Copy and paste my Jordan Addison comments from last week right here. I discussed my reasoning for Moore being a solid dart throw candidate in Week 2 and he delivered nicely with a team high six receptions to go along with 54 yards and a score. Accordingly, DK has not adjusted his price. There really isn’t much more to say here. We owe it to ourselves and our lineups to use Moore as a core piece where his price/floor combination is arguably the top one of the board.
His teammate, freshman running back Deuce Vaughn, should also have great value at the same price. In that same Week 2 game, he averaged over five yards on his 13 touches which was far superior to “starter” Harry Trotter’s 2.8 average on 18 touches. Vaughn also scored on a three yard run so we know he won’t be exclusively used as a third down guy, or be in the “change of pace” role.
And, that’s the point. This is no longer speculation. In one game it’s clear that both of these players are going to be involved in the offense right away. Hell, they may turn out to be the best play makers they have altogether. I mean outside of Malik Knowles, has any Wildcat position player done anything to solidify a role in the offense?
Moore and Vaughn were brought in for a reason, and it’s to have an impact on what has been an offense that lacks explosive plays. Their current values won’t last long. I would also bump up each of their ceilings a bit this week where there should be tons of garbage time passing possessions against what was a very leaky defense for the Sooners last year.
Dameon Pierce | RB | Florida $5,900
With La’Mical Perine off to suffer in the New York Jets backfield, Pierce looks to be the Gators lead back in 2020. As the primary backup to Perine last season, he averaged almost six yards per tote and scored four touchdowns.
The former four-star recruit that selected Florida over Alabama and Auburn now gets the RB1 role in Dan Mullen’s offense that saw Perine generate 938 all-purpose yards, 11 scores, and finish third on the team with 40 catches. There is some talk that Miami transfer Lorenzo Lingard will have something to say about the lead role, but I’ll believe it when I see it. Pierce has waited patiently for two seasons behind Perine, performed well in that role, and already understands Mullen’s scheme as opposed to Lingard who is transferring in a COVID offseason. I expect a 15-20 touch floor for Pierce Saturday afternoon in a plus matchup.
In fact, on paper in terms of game script/flow risk, matchup, goal line situations, and projected role in the offense, I’d take Pierce over any Longhorn or Sooner running back, Rakeem Boyd, Zamir White, Javian Hawkins, and Chris Curry, who all come at a higher price. Speaking of LSU…
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To Monitor or Speculate?
That, is the question. The SEC is back this week! And for CFB DFS purposes, it puts us in a spot where we have to decide if we are willing speculate and invest, or take a wait and see approach.
First stop is in Baton Rouge, where virtually every major cog from the 2019 historic offense is gone including offensive coordinator Joe Brady. The main questions: Will the spread passing attack commence with Brady gone? And if so, what will it’s ceiling be under new quarterback Myles Brennan?
My answers: Probably, and not as high as it was with Burrow because that’s not possible. However, I’ve heard Las Vegas tends to be pretty good at this handicapping stuff and they have the Tigers scheduled for about 36 points. That said, someone has to score the 5-6 projected touchdowns.
As far as the running backs are concerned, I have no feel for how the work will be split and/or if anyone will get the goal line work exclusively so the $7,100 price tag on Curry is a no for me.
The receivers is a different story where I think there is some early season value that may not last long. It comes in the form of a pair of five-star freshman receivers, Kayshon Boutte and Arik Gilbert.
Boutte is the track star who has already been named the starter in the WR3 role behind Terrace Marshall Jr. and Racey McMath. Gilbert is technically a tight end, but really serves more as that OW (offensive weapon) and was arguably the nation’s top recruit. Coach O has already been indicating that they want to get Gilbert involved making this a situation I am definitely willing to take a chance on before seeing it play out.
CFB DFS Podcast
For my expanded breakdown of which teams I am willing to speculate versus waiting a week to see them in action, listen my CFB DFS podcast below where I go through every game on the board. It is also available on every major podcast platform. Please share with anyone you think is interest. Also, don’t forget to leave a review and subscribe. Enjoy!
Fading Quarterback Chalk
Another spot that remains in question heading into game one is the quarterback position at Ole’ Miss. I would say John Rhys Plumlee would be number one with a bullet here if I knew he was starting and/or would not be in a rotation with Matt Corral. But, I don’t know so that’s out.
What I do know is that Jeff Sims continues to be mispriced a little and will have his best matchup against a bad Syracuse outfit in just his third start. He didn’t even play that good last week and still came away with around 25 DK points.
I would also consider Kenny Pickett for Pittsburgh. We all saw what happened to Louisville’s defense last Saturday night when they faced a competent quarterback with legit weapons. Whatever that was, it does not get cured in a week of practice. I like Pickett to flirt with 30 DK points.
Chalk I Can’t Live Without
But, this may not be the slate to get cute at that position. Last season, there were several weeks where you almost had to play different permutations of Alabama, LSU, and Oklahoma in order to complete for the cash line in a given slate. Those teams simply supply the most points in real life and in fake life. If those points aren’t sliding into your LUs, they’re sliding into someone else’s.
Texas and Oklahoma are the only two teams that Vegas projects to score 40 plus points on the board. The 4-5 touchdown upside that Sam Ehlinger and Spencer Rattler have on paper doesn’t exist anywhere else. No matter what I do, one of these guys will be involved. Or, maybe even both.
Good luck for the CFB DFS Week 4 day slate! Follow me on twitter @realBobbyAdcock compliments and insults are always welcomed.