Week 1 Rankings With Uncertainty Analysis

By John Bush
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Updated: September 11, 2020

Week 1 Rankings With Uncertainty Analysis

Week 1 Rankings. My Landscape fantasy painting for week 1 also includes an overview of each team and a grand player FSPR (Fantasy Sports Professor Rankings) average. These rankings should move you to the top teams and away from the lower teams.

In beginning my weekly rankings I obviously use VEGAs Metrics and DAPs for a deep approach (next article). Also, I calculate all players I rank in the week and get the average FSP Ranking. The raw averages and scaled averages give us a nice Team Level landscape which is useful I think about generating DFS and seasonal lineups.In general, these metrics point to the direction of my choices on average. DFS Stacks might be better within positive teams this week.

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Team Level FSPR Week 1

The Best Predicted Teams for Week 1 are DAL PHI PIT BUF NO DET BAL KV IND SEA LAR

The Lowest Teams for Week 1 are MIA WAS JAC CIN NYJ CHI LAC ARI DEN CAR NYG

———————————————————–Uncertainty Levels for Each Player and Team

The following are a few differences between risk and uncertainty:

In risk, you can predict the possibility of a future outcome while in uncertainty you cannot predict the possibility of a future outcome.
Risk can be managed while uncertainty is uncontrollable.
Risks can be measured and quantified while uncertainty cannot.
You can assign a probability to risks events, while with uncertainty you can’t.
Week 1 Rankings With Uncertainty

Conclusion:

Risk and uncertainty are different terms, but most people think they are the same and ignore them.
Managing risk is easier because you can identify risks and develop a response plan in advance based on your experience.
However, managing uncertainty is very difficult as previous information is not available, too many parameters are involved, and you cannot predict the outcome.*
*https://pmstudycircle.com/2012/02/risk-vs-uncertainty/. This source explains risk vs uncertainty

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Interpretation of TEAM UNC Levels

Week 1 Rankings. Remember high uncertainty only means the range of outcomes is large. Thus rankings of players that are highly uncertain should be treated with caution. It does not mean they are low ranked but my rankings would be less accurate!

You can have highly ranked and uncertain players vs a high ranked low uncertain players. Your confidence should be higher with the lower uncertain players. In DFS these players will tend to be solid cash game selections. The high ranked players with high uncertainty are more fitting to tournament DFS plays.

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Uncertainty Levels for Week 1 Teams

Week 1 Rankings. I use the uncertainty levels and determine the counts of players ranked as High, Avg, and Low uncertainty. The % of each type of uncertainty is then calculated as %H, %A and %L. The High H/L metric implies a team with players of higher week 1 uncertainty whereas the lower metrics imply lower uncertainty exists. Red Colorized Teams are more uncertain this week!

I annotated using colorization for week 1 the teams

Low in uncertainty ( green colorization)
NO CAR DET SEA BUF
High in uncertainty (red colorization)
LV JAC TB NE WAS CHI

The table and graph display the week 1 Team UNC levels for analysis. In general, move to low uncertainty teams with highly ranked players. Fantasy Football Week 1 Rankings.