Weekly Value Tools

Setting Lineups by Weekly Value

There are many useful tools for setting your weekly lineups but since Fantasy Football is a weekly game, it pays to have some weekly tools to put to work for you. My Best 10 and Consistency Ratings are aimed at getting you to draft a winning team based on weekly value instead of year end totals of points. As we have learned over the years, it is HOW you accumulate points weekly, not the year end totals that matter in Fantasy Football. Likewise, this data can be quite useful when combined with other tools to decide which players to have in your Fantasy Football lineup this week.

Weekly Value

We all love those huge 25-point games from our running backs, wide receivers and tight ends, with those 40-point games a matchup winner at quarterback. Best 10 attempts to give us a clue on which player has the potential each week, regardless of matchup to post a big number. Consistency is the percentage of full games played where the player met the expected minimum score for Fantasy impact. (25Pts for a QB, 10 Pts Other Positions).

Let’s take a look at the Best 10 Ratings and Conistency Ratings after Week One which also incorporates data from the past 2 seasons.

P Mahomes 39.3 85%CMC 28.7 94%Adams 27.9 84%Kelce 23.0 96%
D Prescott 38.2 81%D Cook 28.3 96%Jefferson 26.5 66%Andrews 22.7 61%
L Jackson 37.8 93%A Kamara 28.2 89%Ridley 25.6 81%Waller 22.2 71%
J Allen 36.9 83%D Henry 28.2 77%Diggs 25.2 80%Kittle 21.0 64%
J Herbert 36.6 93%Barkley 25.8 71%T Hill 25.2 96%Hockenson 17.5 43%
R Wilson 36.5 71%J Taylor 25.7 78%A Robinson 24.9 84%Hooper 17.4 42%
T Brady 34.7 65%A Jones 25.6 80%Hopkins 24.4 80%Pitts 17.4 NA
J Burrow 34.7 50%Elliott 25.2 80%AJ Brown 24.3 74%Fant 17.2 28%
K Murray 34.3 73%Chubb 24.9 81%Aiyuk 24.2 66%Higbee 17.0 32%
J Winston 34.3 68%J Robinson 24.7 94%McLaurin 24.1 79%Gronkowski 15.6 48%
A Rodgers 34.1 68%Ekeler 23.9 92%Thielan 23.9 60%L Thomas 15.6 57%
T Tagovailoa 34.1 66%N Harris 23.6 NAGodwin 23.9 80%J Smith 15.5 41%
R Tannehill 34.0 84%Mixon 23.3 63%Metcalf 23.7 71%Kmet 15.4 22%
M Stafford 33.6 65%Swift 23.3 83%Ant Brown 23.6 85%J Cook 15.4 94%
B Mayfield 33.1 59%Montgomery 22.7 61%Lockett 23.3 59%Engram 15.3 50%
M Ryan 32.2 64%M Sanders 22.3 69%R Woods 22.9 61%Henry 15.1 65%
J Hurts 32.0 5%CEH 22.0 84%Cooper 22.8 74%Tonyan 15.0 60%
T Taylor 31.7 NAGibson 21.8 75%K Allen 22.8 82%Goedert 14.8 45%
K Cousins 31.4 64%Javonte 21.4 NALamb 22.8 73%Everett 13.3 35%
D Jones 29.6 38%Jacobs 20.5 75%M Evans 22.7 74%Conklin 13.2 NA
C Wentz 29.4 63%Carson 20.4 84%Chark 22.5 53%
J Goff 29.3 61%Conner 20.4 80%J Jones 22.5 86%
T Lawrence 29.2 NADrake 20.3 58%Sutton 22.3 64%
M Jones 28.8 NAEdmonds 20.3 55%Kupp 22.0 76%
Z Wilson 28.6 NAIngram 19.7 58%Chase 21.7 NA

QB- One thing we learn from the data study above is that elite QBs do have more value than perceived in 1QB leagues. The old adage is that since you can get a solid QB in total points or even points per game after the first 7 or 8 is gone that you should wait on QB. Only 5 QBs scored 25+ points in 80% or more of their games. The difference between the Top 3 and 5th through 8th is around 3-5 points per week in weekly value. Any QB over 70% in Consistency Score is an automatic start since they have shown the track record to post a quality week even against tough defenses.

RB- There are twice as many players at RB that post a solid week over 70% of the time than QBs. There is a clear top tier of four at this position with 3 point drop to the 5th at the position. The next 3 point drop brings us down 12 more places showing that it gets crowded in the tier below the elite four at RB. Edmonds and Conner are so close in Best 10 that it shows there might be a competition week by week for most opportunities on the Cardinals which could be decided by game script.

WR- Seventeen of the top 25 in Best 10 have a Consistency Rating over 70%. This shows how deep the elite pool of players is at the position. Some of the players that struggled somewhat in Week One showed that tendency with their Conistency Rating (Aiyuk). These ratings are based on current data NOT on perceived value long term in Dynasty Fantasy Football formats.

TE- Best 10 data shows that there are only four elite players at the TE position. Only two of those four have a Consistency Rating over 70% showing how thin the position is on a weekly value basis. One other player has a strong Consistency Rating (J Cook), but his big game potential is limited as shown by his lower Best 10 Rating. If you don’t have one of the elite players at TE on your roster you are giving away 3-6 points per week if you roster a player in the 5th through 9th positions, and as many as 6-12 points if you have to settle for the 10th through 12th place at TE.

Weekly Value Plays in Conclusion

Fantasy Football is a weekly game so using these weekly tools to make lineup decisions can be quite helpful. Any player with over a 70% Consistency Rating is a “Must Start” and those with higher Best 10 Values give you the best potential for a big game that could carry your team to victory. This data set will be kept current all season long and after week two a more detailed data sheet will be posted. In addition to this data consult the articles by Professor John Bush that show the best matchup data.

Good luck in week two!

For more Fantasy Football advice check out “The Science of Fantasy” podcast with Dennis Michelsen and John Bush at https://dmicmedia.sounder.fm/episode/4


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