MIAMI DOLPHINS – Professor’s Flash Card

MIAMI DOLPHINS – Professor’s Flash Card.

AFC EAST_MIAMI DOLPHINS

This article focuses on 3 tables and their analysis. MIAMI DOLPHINS – Professor’s Flash Card.

  1. 2020 PPR Rankings with Player Uncertainty Levels
  2. 2016 to 2019 Positional Based PPR Fantasy Point Averages (FPA), Team Usages, and Differences from 2019 to 4-year Averages
  3. 2015 to 2019 Team Level Targets Per Game, 2019 Usage, 5 Year of Targets/Game Usage, and DIFF in 2019.

I suggest these will present a landscape of simple data from 2019 vs the current 2020 preseason rankings. Link to my Current Rankings Below.

https://www.fakepigskin.com/2020/05/18/early-2020-ppr-rankings-with-uncertainty-analysis/

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2020 PPR Rankings with Player Uncertainty Levels

This Table includes:

  • Team
  • Bye Week
  • Position Rankings
  • Position
  • Overall Name
  • Fantasy Sport’s Professor’s Rankings (Scale of 100 to 0-Green to Red)
  • Uncertainty Level of High, Average or Low

The 2020 current rankings suggest the QB situation will be fluid and the plan will be to transition from Fitzpatrick to Tagovailoa. When that occurs is unknown. Rental QBs only in redrafts but in SuperFlex you could take as QB3s.

Given the free agency moves of Breida and Howard coming in suggest little support for Laird/Ballage/Gaskin. I predict an RBBC situation and thus split FPs and lower values. Worth an RB3 play for either.

Gesicki the TE is out of the top 12 TEs but if he clicks with Tua then he could move up late in the season into the top TE levels. I consider him a TE2 and a solid bye week backup.

Last year Fitzmagic delivered in an always passing offense. That means barrel of points for Parker at a solid WR2 price. If Tua is a phenom then Williams has shot at WR3 status if the MIA team is always passing. Wilson is also a play in best ball situations or for an injury backup given the passing levels expected in 2020.

MIA ADP MIAMI DOLPHINS - Professor's Flash Card

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2016 to 2019 Positional Based PPR Fantasy Point Averages (FPA), Team Usages, and Differences from 2019 to 4-year Averages

This table presents:

  • Team
  • Position
  • 2016 to 2019 Fantasy Point Averages 
  • 4 Year Sum of Averages
  • % of Positional Usage by the 4-Year Date
  • % of 2019 Team Usages
  • DIFF – 2019 vs last 4-year % Usages (Improving or Declining)

The QB and TE positions showed improvements from 2019 vs the 4-year average. QBs +3% and TE at 2.5%.  The QB really was picked up in FPs vs the RBs. MIA seemed to be an RB dominate in 2018 but 2019 flipped the script with WRs going back with a nice TE production. It seems to be a Team looking for 2020 improvement and adding new RBs could help balance the team for 2020.

DeVante Parker was at 17th in 2019 with 46. Preston Williams and 92. Albert Wilson.  These 3 WRs were a clear WR 1 2 and 3 but the production was low. Any improvements can push these up the ranks. Hurns seems lost in this group as is backup only?

The QB position is the variable here with the TE positions. In 2019,  Mike Gesicki was 12 and the TE was the TE1 MIA needed. His 2020 fate is linked to the QB! 18. Ryan Fitzpatrick is a mid-tier QB? Hard to see him going into QB 1 territory as MIA drafted Tua to be the QB of the future. 

RBs is the X factor for 2020 MIA given the personnel changes it seems what can tip MIA into a better team. 65. Patrick Laird 71. Kalen Ballage are the RBs remaining after ARI wisely got Drake. These 2 RBs do not inspire confidence for 2020. MIA agrees and brought in a Tandem of Brieda and Howard to balance the 2020 team.

MIA MIAMI DOLPHINS - Professor's Flash Card

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2015 to 2019 Team Level Targets Per Game, 2019 Usage, 5 Year of Targets/Game Usage, and DIFF in 2019.

This table contains:

  • Team
  • Position
  • 2015 to 2019 Targets Per Game
  • 5 Year Average of Targets Per Game
  • %2019 Usages in Targeting
  • % 5-Year Positional Usage Average
  • DIFF 2019 vs 5-Year Average of Team Positional Usages

Overall Comments:

2019 saw an increased RB Targets/Game by 2.1%. The current RBs for MIA are Jordan Howard RB36, Matt Breida RB37,  Kalen Ballage RB100,  Patrick Laird RB82, and Myles Gaskin RB98. The usages are near 26% which is a little low. The public cannot decide between Howard and Breida at an RB 2/3 type of both. Given the slate of RBs, I would draft the cheaper of the 2 RBs. The 3 other RB as way back and are handcuffs material only.

The TEs dropped by -1.5% in 2019 targets/game and were used at a low 22%. The current MIA TE is Mike Gesicki TE15. That seems right as the low usage limits the upside. See the above discussion for my takes.

Finally, the WRs are DeVante Parker WR22, Preston Williams WR50.  Albert Wilson WR93, and  Allen Hurns WR129. MIA WRs were used by -0.7% in T/G but at an overall strong 51%. Given the over 50% usages, all 4 WRs are in play in some way. Parker is the clear WR1, Williams at WR2, and Wilson at the WR3. Hurns has some juice at times as best ball late grab as well.

MIA TMIA TG MIAMI DOLPHINS - Professor's Flash Card

Check out my analysis of the other AFC East teams:

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