Early 2020 PPR Rankings with Uncertainty Analysis

Introduction

Early 2020 PPR Rankings with Uncertainty Analysis. The material in this article is meant to inspire deeper thinking for our upcoming 2020 drafting. As rankings are out of date as we read them, then we must use these metrics to consider the 2020 draft in terms of expectations, value, process, and pattern.

Value vs Process

Every league has its own properties and will demand flexibility in the draft. I find myself between a value vs pattern drafter. I have a list of accomplishments that I wish to achieve but the value can and will modify my actions. Your concept of value, however, needs to be fairly set. When is a player a draft value? For me, when a player has a good potential of delivering PPR FP vs the price I have to pay is value.

Establish Value

I suggest a quick note of each position from 2019 and their FP/Game by Rankings. Its a ball park estimate but should allow a framework for 2020 values.

Patterns

The before draft plans are what I consider your draft pattern. Zero RB vs ZERO WRs etc are highly discussed patterns of some drafters. If you have your previous results of success then use that. I do think draft position will determine a lot in my drafts. First pick will tend to force a top RB pick while pick 12 might lead to a balanced RB/WR pair or a TE/RB etc. Mock drafting can aid you in practicing for 2020. 

Landscape Views of ADP PPR Drafts. 

One trick I have been using is shown below. I plot the positions by their ADP pick within rounds. On average, what can I expect going into a typical PPR redraft league. The landscape scattergram plot is organized by positions low to high of DST, QB, RB, TE, and Rs. Each dot represents a ADP positional pick within a positional associated line.

I determine the patterns within each pick and round while noting runs, beginnings and endings, levels such as RB1s, vs RB2s etc allowing the drafter to consider these drafting landmarks. I have evidence that people draft in a way to balance their team. By the 6th round many want 3RB and 3WRs few will draft 6 RBs or 6 WRs. Thus value vs a team need will battle within your head! Your level of cognitive dissonance will be altered by your drafting. 

Positional Draft Patterns 

The first 5 rounds tend to go RB/RB/WR/WR/TE. Thus is the way you wish to go. This pattern is the journey many in your draft are going. Interestingly, last year, I believe it was RB/WR/RB/WR/RB. This year the skew is to the RBs in the 2nd round while 3rd round is all in for WRs! 

Chart that the top 2 TEs and QBs are gone by Round 3. The QBs next pick up in round 4 and by round 5 the top 7 QBs will be gone. The top 9 TEs will be gone as well by round 5. Thus, if you elect a later QB TE you mush have a “feeling” of when you need to draft them! 

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The first DST may be gone by the 6th round as well. Round 6 is RB biased. Note the 10th TE is available till round 8 and 12 QBs will be out the door by round 10. The top 5 DST are also gone by round 10. 

RB/RB/RB WR/WR/WR is the average for the 6th to 10th rounds.

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Fantasy Sports Professor’s Rankings (FSP Rankings)

Early 2020 PPR Rankings with Uncertainty Analysis. The next figures are my initial rankings scaled for 100 to 0 (high to low) and these are colorized for easy visual views. I present the positions with players and these are followed by the Team Based Player Lists. In placing all players on the same scale allows the worth of the player in one position to be compared

directly to another player in another position. Again, these are initial and the top and bottoms are not strong but should get better going into later summer. 

Uncertainty Levels for Each Player and Team

I also like to assign uncertainty levels to each player as a tiebreaker on close decisions. I discuss the uncertainty vs risk problem below. 

The following are a few differences between risk and uncertainty:

  • In risk, you can predict the possibility of a future outcome while in doubt, you cannot predict the likelihood of a future result.
  • Risk can be managed while uncertainty is uncontrollable.
  • Risks can be measured and quantified, while uncertainty cannot.
  • You can assign a probability to risks events, while with uncertainty, you can’t.

Conclusion:

  • Risk and uncertainty are different terms, but most people think they are the same and ignore them.
  • Managing risk is easier because you can identify risks and develop a response plan in advance based on your experience.
  • However, managing uncertainty is very difficult as previous information is not available, too many parameters are involved, and you cannot predict the outcome.*
  • *https://pmstudycircle.com/2012/02/risk-vs-uncertainty/. This source article explains risk vs uncertainty

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Interpretation of TEAM UNC Levels

Early 2020 PPR Rankings with Uncertainty Analysis. Remember high uncertainty only means the range of outcomes is large. Thus rankings of players that are highly uncertain should be treated with caution. It does not mean they are low ranked but my rankings would/could be less accurate!

You can have highly ranked, and uncertain players vs. a high ranked low unpredictable players. Your confidence should be higher with the lower unpredictable players.

In DFS, these players will tend to be solid cash game selections. The high ranked players with high uncertainty are more fitting to tournament DFS plays. 

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Positional Player FSP Rankings with Current UNC levels

These charts contain:

  • Overall Ranking
  • Positional Ranking 
  • Position
  • Player Name
  • Team
  • Bye Week
  • FSP Rankings (Green to Red)
  • UNC Levels (Low, Average, and High – Green, Yellow, and Red Colorization)

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DST

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KICKER

Early 2020 PPR Rankings with Uncertainty Analysis. Slide6

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Quarterbacks

Early 2020 PPR Rankings with Uncertainty Analysis. Slide8

Early 2020 PPR Rankings with Uncertainty Analysis. Slide9

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Running Backs

Early 2020 PPR Rankings with Uncertainty Analysis. Slide11

Early 2020 PPR Rankings with Uncertainty Analysis. Slide12

Early 2020 PPR Rankings with Uncertainty Analysis. Slide13

Early 2020 PPR Rankings with Uncertainty Analysis. Slide14

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Tight Ends

Early 2020 PPR Rankings with Uncertainty Analysis. Slide16Early 2020 PPR Rankings with Uncertainty Analysis. Slide17

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Wide Receivers

Early 2020 PPR Rankings with Uncertainty Analysis. Slide19Early 2020 PPR Rankings with Uncertainty Analysis. Slide20Early 2020 PPR Rankings with Uncertainty Analysis. Slide21Early 2020 PPR Rankings with Uncertainty Analysis. Slide22

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Team Level Rankings

I have used these metrics to place players into context. It allow me to consider the systems (team) as well the elements (positions and players). Using my rankings with other information, I can see the relationships potentially for the 2020 season.

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