Week 15 Rankings With Uncertainty

Week 15 Rankings With Uncertainty

Week 15 Rankings With Uncertainty. I have discussed decisions under uncertainty before in my many articles.

The approach I use is synthesis of many data streams that provide input for different scenarios that may exist in fantasy football.

Additionally, I also move from the Top-Down Broad into the Specific. Having been a scientist for 35 years, deconstruction is a strong method for investigating hypothesis testing and research findings.

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Week 15 Team Average PPR Based Rankings 

Week 15 Rankings With Uncertainty. The framing of the week’s teams by highlighting their average fantasy sports professor’s rankings (FSPR) is essential to finding sweet spots for line-ups, and DFS plays.

(GREEN High/RED-Weak Plays)

The top teams in Week 15 for fantasy are GB/LAR/KC/PIT/IND/SEA/TB/ARI, and many have a solid matchup, and some could surprise this week. I move towards these teams in DFS.

The bottom teams here are NYJ/CIN/NE/NYG/JAC/MIA/WAS/DET for week 15, and these are the extremes. Additionally, these teams have various issues this week. Move away from them, especially for any gamble or marginal DFS plays.

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Week 15 Team Rankings

Week 15 Rankings With Uncertainty.  I constructed this Bar graph to visualize teams’ pecking order in week 15 via scaled team rankings. Understanding the environment of a matchup must include a holistic view; see below. I do not recommend ignoring the team factor for your DFS 15 and line-ups. 

As I have previously discussed, the visual landscapes of the metrics are superior to numbers. I also use colorization to bring home the rankings. 

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Team Level Uncertainty Week 15

Week 15 Rankings with Uncertainty. Thus, I begin with a look at this week’s Team level of uncertainty.

  • High uncertainty suggests deeper thinking and more caution in DFS and line-ups.
  • On the other hand, low uncertainty teams can provide us with DFS stacks and deep players into our line-ups.

The table below presents week 15’s UNC numbers from each team (High, AVG, and Low). Additionally, I calculated a ratio of Team players High or AVG in UNC vs. Low UNC (HA/L).

Interestingly, this ratio gives a look into the Team’s overall uncertainty for your consideration. Finally, I colorized the numbers and team names to give the overall UNC landscapes.

Move toward the lower UNC teams in DFS and away from the higher UNC teams. For example, move to LAR/TEN/IND/GB/ARI/NO?SEA/DAL/BUF/MIA (Green Bold picks for some). 

Additionally, I will be moving away from CIN?NYJ/DET/PIT/ATL/HOU/PHI/JAC for DFS.  In redrafts, the top players from these teams only. Beware of deeper plays.  

 

Week 15 Rankings With Uncertainty.

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Week 15 Team Uncertainty Landscape

Week 15 Rankings With Uncertainty.  I use it as a resource for a visual view of lineups and DFS plays for week 15. Good for close choice separations. Tiebreakers. DFS gambles. Money to be made if you can find key longshots in shaky teams. 

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Week 15 Team Rankings vs. Uncertainty Levels

I combined the 2 data streams to “see” power rankings vs. uncertainty landscape for week 15. 

PIT/KC are nicely ranked but are High in UNC. TEN/NO are low UNC teams but low Ranked for the Week. Balance the 2 metrics to dig deep for DFS and Lineups. 

Week 15 Rankings With Uncertainty.

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Graphical Plots of Team Rankings vs. Uncertainty for Week 14

A nice visual landscape of WEEK 15 Teams. The teams were sorted left to right-high to low uncertainty. The Pink lines mark the upper and lower boundaries of the week 15 rankings. Note the outliers! High or Low

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Player PPR Rankings with UNC Levels by Positions

Week 14 Rankings With Uncertainty. The following figures place all players within their positions of my rankings and uncertainty levels.

Use these metrics to establish levels for your DFS and Line-ups plays.  Make sure that these are combined with my Match-Up Analysis upcoming. Scan first, then drill down to ask questions.

Each Data Block consists of:

  • Team 
  • Players 
  • HIGH AVG or LOW UNC
  • FSPR under their UNC level.
  • FSPR Ranking 

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Defenses

Week 15 Rankings With Uncertainty.

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KICKERs

Week 15 Rankings With Uncertainty.

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Quarterbacks

Week 15 Rankings With Uncertainty.

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Running Backs

 

Week 15 Rankings With Uncertainty.

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Week 15 Rankings With Uncertainty.

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Week 15 Rankings With Uncertainty.

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Week 15 Rankings With Uncertainty.

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Week 15 Rankings With Uncertainty.

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Tight Ends

Week 15 Rankings With Uncertainty.

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Week 15 Rankings With Uncertainty.

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Week 15 Rankings With Uncertainty.

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Wide Receivers

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Week 15 Rankings With Uncertainty.

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Week 15 Rankings With Uncertainty.

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Week 15 Rankings With Uncertainty.

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Week 15 Rankings With Uncertainty.

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Week 15 Rankings With Uncertainty.

 

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Professor’s MATCH-UP ANALYSIS

Week 15 Rankings With Uncertainty. I present the heart of my week 15 analysis for line-ups and DFS plays. Fantasy Football is a weekly game that places Teams into different environments, and outcomes are based on those situations.

Firstly, I use Vegas Metrics to frame the scoring potential of all games. Move toward higher scoring games.

Secondly, I bring onto the table the match-ups defense against the positions metrics (DAPs) to see the sweet spots and traps for the players.

Thirdly, I like to go toward safer, easy spots for players, but stud players are those that can fight through adversity. Weak deeper plays are only advised in higher-scoring games.

As the predicted Vegas points go down, you should get more cautious except in tournament DFS where going contrary can be profitable

Finally, I focus on talent, not hype! Ignore the sizzle and chew into the game bottom lines!

Weather: Wind >20mph is a factor in passing—tone down your picks as needed.

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SATURDAY Games Very High Scoring Games

 

Week 15 Rankings With Uncertainty.

 

Vegas has predicted high scoring games with plenty of PPR points. 

 

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Week 15 Rankings With Uncertainty.

Example

The DEN vs BUF Game Defense against the positions (DAPs) is show above. The DAPS go from Tough/RED 0 to Easy/Green/100. 

When DEN has the ball they fight into an AVG DAP of +55. The DEN RBs get an easy road for scoring at +68. The DEN passing game got a 64/18/98 DAPs. That suggest Fant collects vs a 98 DAP 2X scores? Also, Lindsay the RB may collect by pass-catching as well. Caution for the DEN WR though vs a +18 DAP.

When BUF is on offense they go against the tougher DEN DEF of +40. BUF RB get a +95. Zack Moss has a show today??? Singletary collects. That RB committee has been confusing this season. DFS gambles of Moss might payoff. BUF passing get a +30/0/20. I would suggest caution on BUF passing. 

DEN vs BUF Rankings with Uncertainty

My UNC rankings are shown below and can be read as 0 to 100 high to low FSPR under my UNC analysis of each player. I colorized the FSPRs to highlight the highs and lows. 

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DEN

For Example Drew Lock is ranked at 49 but high uncertainty. Caution! 

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BUF

 

 

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Week 15 Vegas High Scoring Games (above 49 total game points)

Week 15 Rankings With Uncertainty. The table below lists the 4 games that Vegas suggests will be high scoring this week, and thus, you should move toward these games for DFS Stacks, etc., as well as deeper plays in your line-ups. You must still use common sense but look extra hard to find surprises in these games.

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Week 15 Vegas Above Average Scoring Games (above 45 total game points)

Week 15 Rankings With Uncertainty. The table below lists the 1 game that Vegas suggests will be above average scoring this week, and thus, you might move toward these games for DFS Stacks, etc., as well as deeper plays in your line-ups. They could be solid DFS plays but be thoughtful.

 

 

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Week 15 Vegas Below Average Scoring Games (41 to 44 total game points )

Week 15 Rankings With Uncertainty. 4 Game predicted to be low scoring—caution in using players in here.  

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Week 15 Vegas LOW Scoring Games (40 or less total game points )

Week 15 Rankings With Uncertainty.  2 Game predicted to be low scoring—caution in using players in here. 

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Final Advice. Use a holistic view with multiple data streams. Given the situation, the DFS use may be higher than your lineups. Good Luck                       

Week 15 Rankings With Uncertainty.

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