After a one week hiatus, CFB DFS is back and so am I to sift through the board with targets, overall strategy and lava takes! There is nothing quite like meaningless Bowl games with teams I’ve barely ever heard of to get my blood pumping for fantasy and gambling opinions. After all, the weeks are running out whether it be the college or pro slates so I’m going to enjoy any board of games I can get my degenerate hands on.
As always, I focus on DraftKings targets each week here on Fake Pigskin. My goal is to identify three to four low-cost/reasonable floor targets as foundational pieces for all my lineups.
This way, you start by boosting your remaining price per player in the range to roster as many high floor/high upside guys who we all anticipate substantial statistical output from.
Here are the Vegas odds (favorites in bold) for the 6 games included in the Saturday afternoon DK contest:
|[email protected]ARST 5:30PM ET|||||2.5|||||62.5|
|SMU@FAU 3:30PM ET|||||8|||||64|
|[email protected]GSU 2:30PM ET|||||5|||||58.5|
|APPST@UAB 9:00PM ET|||||16.5|||||48|
|[email protected]SDSU 2:00PM ET|||||3.5|||||41|
|[email protected]UW 7:30PM ET|||||3.5|||||49.5|
For example, I am not going to come at you with hot suggestions like James Proche and Omar Bayless. What I will do is point out that rostering the expensive duo will leave your average remaining price per player at $5,667.
This is the price range I will focus on each week. Onto the Bowl Bonanza targets!
BJ Emmons | RB | Florida Atlantic $4,600
All the way back in Week 1, I discussed the merits of Mr. Emmons as a potential bell-cow in the FAU backfield. All of that got derailed by an injury that cost him a majority of this season. He returned for the last three games of 2019 and has proven to be fully recovered and capable of taking on the role that now former head coach, Lane Kiffin, brought the former Alabama recruit to Boca Raton to fulfill.
In those three games, Emmons has produced a 33-164-5 line, which is more than any other Owl running back has had in each category, over that span. Their game against SMU is scheduled for plenty of offense and I like anyone at the running back position on either side that will touch the ball 10-15 times, that is averaging five yards per carry, as Emmons has been doing.
It’s also important to note that he is getting carries within the first or second offensive possession so game flow and script should not be an issue here. At the very least, he is option 1A to Malcolm Davidson in the backfield. For my money, I’ll take the guy that Alabama targeted in recruiting all the way.
*** UPDATE GO TO THE 25:00 MINUTE MARK ON THE PODCAST LINK BELOW FOR THE FAU BREAKING NEWS AND ANALYSIS ***
Tony Gaiter IV | WR | Florida International $4,600
A little extra digging into game logs and the googler brought this guy’s name to my attention. The speedy senior has come on strong to finish the season as “Captain” James Morgan’s most trusted receiver, collecting 22 catches for 283 yards and two scores over the Panther’s final three games.
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FIU head coach Butch Davis credited Gaiter’s progression earlier in the season to his discipline in the offseason with dieting that shaved his 40 time to an elite 4.5 seconds. Specifically, cutting ice cream out was the biggie for the Florida native, who finished his senior year as the team leader in receptions and yards.
Stats and anecdotal evidence? I’m certainly convinced. But, really it’s all about getting the top receiver on a team with a fantastic matchup at such an attractive price that nails this play home. Gaiter IV and Emmons will definitely be a couple of guys that I’m building around Saturday.
Fading Quarterback Chalk
Another one, is the aforementioned quarterback that will be throwing him the ball! And, it’s the same rationale.
The price/matchup combo for the FUI offense as a whole isn’t offered anywhere else on the board. Arkansas State defensively allows on average approximately 480 yards and 35 point per game. In the Sunbelt conference to boot! If I can get my CFB DFS hands on any quarterback going against that at $5,400, color me interested.
Chalk I Can’t Live Without
Outside of that, whether it be the quarterback position or any other, the SMU/FAU game is likely going to make or break this slate. With such a small board and only a few games with attractive CFB DFS scripts, make sure to check the weather in Boca Saturday morning.
If conditions are favorable, I likely will not have a lineup without Xavier Jones and James Proche. If a windy/raining forecast persists, pivoting off this game to invest elsewhere would be advisable. All it takes is one miss on a high priced guy in a slate like this to finish below the cash line.
For a more thorough game by game preview, check out my podcast below starting right after the open.
Good luck for the CFB DFS first bowl slate! Follow me on twitter @realBobbyAdcock compliments and insults are always welcomed.