The first full CFB DFS day slate is here! Just watching Ohio State play at Minnesota on Thursday night with full fans felt magical. I don’t even have one word to describe the excitement level for a Saturday with dozens of games at the country’s best venues filled with patrons. I have three–LETS FUCKING GO! As always, I focus on DraftKings targets each week here on Fake Pigskin. My goal is to identify three to four low-cost/reasonable floor targets as foundational pieces for all my lineups.
This way, you start by boosting your remaining price per player in the range to roster as many high floor/high upside guys who we all anticipate substantial statistical output from.
HERE ARE THE VEGAS ODDS (FAVORITES IN BOLD) FOR THE 13 GAMES INCLUDED IN THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON DK CONTEST:
|OU@TUL 12:00PM ET|||26|||69.5|
|[email protected]CINCY 3:30PM ET|||23|||50|
|[email protected]ISU 4:30PM ET||| N/A||| N/A|
|BAMA@MIA 3:30PM ET|||18.5|||65|
|[email protected]MSST 4:00PM ET|||24|||52.5|
|[email protected]ORE 2:00PM ET|||21|||61.5|
|[email protected]MICH 12:00PM ET|||17.5|||67.5|
|[email protected]UMD 3:30PM ET|||3.5|||55|
|[email protected]WISC 12:00PM ET|||4.5|||51.5|
|[email protected]UT 4:30PM ET|||9.5|||59.5|
|[email protected]KSU 12:00PM ET|||2|||52|
|[email protected]IOWA 3:30PM ET|||4|||47|
|[email protected]NAVY 3:30PM ET|||3|||45|
For example, I am not going to come at you with hot suggestions like Spencer Rattler and Breece Hall. What I will do is point out that rostering the expensive duo will leave your average remaining price per player at $5,217. My objective each week will be to offer a reasonable path in affording the best players. Without further ado, let’s beat Week 1 like it owes us money!
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Troy Franklin | WR | Oregon $3,000
As I discussed in my strategy guide, I pride myself in hitting on contest minimum price (CMP) selections. The combination of salary cap relief and not needing much output to provide decent ROI, always make them worthy of consideration. In the case of this true freshmen, we don’t need to guess–ERRRRRRRRRRRRR–speculate on his involvement early on in the season. The No. 3 ranked receiver in the 2021 class per 247Sports has already been named a starter heading into the Ducks debut with Fresno State Saturday. This is likely the last time we’ll be able to acquire his services at the minimum price. Just a 3-4 catch day is enough to justify rostering him. Anything beyond that is CFB DFS gravy.
In that same regard on the other side in that game, Fresno receiver Erik Brooks is worth a look. The junior former walk-on was just awarded a full scholarship for his efforts. He celebrated by having a 5-61 line in their blowout win over UConn in the opener last week. And, it wasn’t a case of garbage time stats with the second unit. Four of his catches came with the starters when the game was still in question.
Going back to last season, he’s solidified a role as the slot receiver in a pass friendly offense that usually gets him three grabs a game. As 21 point underdogs, I think the positive passing game script will allow Brooks to produce a similar line with a slight bump to his upside.
In the last two examples, I can forgive DK for overlooking some details before releasing contests. But, this next one is just fucking dumb. Louisiana’s Jalen Williams should not be the contest minimum price. He recorded multiple catches in seven of the Rajin’ Cajuns 10 games last season, and tied for the team lead with four touchdowns.
In a run first offense, the former pro baseball player’s ceiling is limited. But, his 6’3″ 218 lb frame undoubtedly makes him quarterback Levi Lewis’s favorite red zone target. With a bagel proof floor and a decent chance at hauling in a score week-to-week, Williams should be closer to the 4k range. Shame on you DK!
Another CMP receiver I am watching (not playing) this week is Iowa true freshman Keagan Johnson. He hasn’t been named a starter, but many think he’ll be an immediate impact player in some capacity this season. He’ll be someone to monitor this week and beyond for CFB DFS.
Brian Robinson Jr. | RB | Alabama $6,500
Being the projected featured running back for Alabama is usually a good thing for CFB DFS purposes. Robinson Jr. spent the last two seasons as Najee Harris’s primary backup. Now is his senior season, it’s this Tuscaloosa native’s turn at RB1 in what should be another highly powered Crimson Tide attack.
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Simply having the increased role doesn’t mean he’ll produce like Harris did. But frankly, if Angela Lansbury was expected to have 20 touches in this offense she’d be worth it at this price. And, I doubt his price stays here for long.
Along with Robinson, I like Louisiana’s Chris Smith as my favorite price/floor/ceiling combo meals at running back for this slate. Both are all around tailbacks that can run, catch, and block so they’ll rarely come of the field. I think both of them have legit upside to compete with most of the running backs priced above them.
Fading Quarterback Chalk
Because of their ability to accumulate rushing stats, Maryland’s Taulia Tagovailoa, Indiana’s Michael Penix Jr., and Kansas State’s Skylar Thompson are all serviceable paydown options at quarterback. However, matchup wise none of them are projected to score 30 points per Vegas odds. That said, I don’t see a true bargain that is tempting me enough to pivot off the big boys for this CFB DFS slate. So, let’s just move on.
Chalk I Can’t Live Without
Whether I start off my lineups with two or three CMPs, Spencer Rattler and Texas running back Bijan Robinson will be everywhere for me Saturday afternoon. I actually think Robinson is a bit undervalued at his price and that it won’t stay there for long.
Last season, he started out with a limited role in a crowded Longhorn backfield. Eventually, his explosiveness usurped the competition as he finished the final four games as the lead back. Over that span, he averaged over 11 yards per carry and scored four touchdowns. He also added a receiving line of 8-129-2 in those games. My guess is he’ll continue to be the focal point and relied on heavily as Texas breaks in a new quarterback in new head coach Steve Sarkisian’s scheme. I won’t be the one missing out.
Good luck in the Week 1 day slate! Follow me on twitter @realBobbyAdcock compliments and insults are always welcomed.