The CFB DFS season is upon us! Why wait for Sunday to agonize over touchdown vultures, game flow victimization, and in-game injuries when you can start your sweat process 24 hours in advance every week! Before you do, I would like to present a short and sweet guide for your consideration. The following synopsis is a collection of factors that I always take into account before lineups lock and the freak out commences. Enjoy!
Minimum Price Candidates
In some of the more niche DFS endeavors, many platforms (looking at you DK) sometimes overlook the impact of recent performances, injuries, or changing circumstances. For example, in Week 3 of the 2019 season, I pointed out how the Michigan St. running back situation was changing to favor Elijah Collins as the clear lead back. That PSA did not make across the DK pricing desk which resulted in a clear home run for the entire CFB DFS community.
Beyond obvious plays like that, most weekly slates will present a handful of receivers and tight ends at the minimum contest price with bagel proof floors that are worthy of consideration. If you followed me at all over the last couple of seasons, you may recall the tale Tre’Von Bradley. Having no life means I get to spend an inordinate amount of time watching American Athletic Conference football. It was late in the 2019 season when I noticed this Houston receiver that didn’t have big stat lines, but was on the field almost every play.
Fake Pigskin Exclusive: Join Monkey Knife Fight and Get an Instant 100% Deposit Match PLUS a Free $5 Game!
All It Take Is One
As a genius I was able to deduce that, as long as Bradley was on the field that much, he would maintain a fantasy floor that would warrant being rostered at his minimum price week-to-week. And, more importantly, basic law of averages and an element of Murphy’s Law always creates legit upside for anyone on the field that much. In other words, with ample opportunity, anything can–and probably will–happen. In the case of Bradley, it happened on a cool November night under the lights…
As exciting as this must have been for Bradley, it cracked the top-20 best moments of my life. I think I have it at 13 right after being there the day my niece was born, and just ahead of discovering the Casa Amor addition in season three of Love Island UK. Anyway, the point is, always consider these profiles as candidates each week for your lineups. Even if they come away with a 2-20 line, the salary cap relief factor alone can make them worth selecting.
Whoever said that youth is wasted on the young clearly wasn’t playing CFB DFS during their down time. Every season there are a collection of underclassmen (usually receivers) that aren’t quite given their due in terms of pricing. For us, this is good news because that is where you can find YUGE returns early on in the season. In 2018, it was electric freshman Rondale Moore still below 7k four weeks into the season. In 2019, LSU’s Ja’Marr Chase laughably remained below 6k heading into Week 4 when notched a 10-229-4 line. Last season, I speculated that Pitt’s Jordan Addison would have a prominent role in the offense early on and it paid off big time at almost the contest minimum price.
Even deeper into the season, depth charts and rotations are always changing. It’s something to definitely monitor throughout the season. The best way to do it? Read my article and listen to my podcast! Duh…
Another consideration to make in any DFS contest is the Vegas spreads and totals on each game. For a simple example:
|Player||Cost||Game Line||Game Total|
When faced with a scenario like this where there isn’t much of a price discrepancy, I would tend to give the nod to WR B based on the Vegas projection of a back and forth shootout. Game lines and totals can also be helpful in anticipating positive or negative game flow.
In Week 14 last season, I suggested taking a cheap risk on Notre Dame backup running back Chris Tyree. With the Irish laying over 30 points, I thought Tyree was worth considering at a his low price as a “game flow hero of the week” candidate. As it turned out, my mother fucking stone cold genius paid off again…
Fantasy just got a whole lot better thanks to Monkey Knife Fight. With fast-paced games like Rapid Fire and Either/Or, it’s never been easier to play fantasy and win. New to MKF? Get Exclusive $100 Deposit Match + Free $5 Game
Vegas odds aren’t an end all be all. And, these speculative circumstances obviously do not work all the time. It’s just another tool in your CFB DFS bag to identify spots where potential edges could exist.
You’ll need all the tools you can get in some weeks because, depending on the slate, you’ll have no choice but load up on different permutations of the big boys. Whether it’s Alabama last season or LSU in 2019, their services are required to compete in certain slates.
Simply put, not all slates are created equally. Fantasy points are just a byproduct of actual points and stats accumulated in real life. And, in real life college football there are only a few teams that offer 5-6 offensive touchdown upside every Saturday. When it happens, you will need to have a piece of it to compete. Because if those luscious touchdowns, yards, and stacks aren’t sliding into your LUs, they’re going into someone else’s. The smaller the slate, the more prominent this factor becomes.
Last but not least, college coaches are way worse than pro ones when it comes to updating a player’s playing status. Why? Why does anybody do anything? Because they can. There aren’t any official injury report requirements at the college level so, of course, college coaches pretend like they’re working for the pentagon when it comes to revealing anything about a player’s availability.
Where does it leave us? First and foremost, College Fantasy Football is a must follow on twitter for updates. It’s always a good practice to check their feed 5-10 minutes before kickoff. Even with great resources like that, there is always an increased risk in the college game of getting burnt by last minute decisions that do not become public knowledge until the game is underway and lineups are locked. This is especially true with COVID still lingering. The best thing you can do is just be aware of this factor and act accordingly.
Good luck this season! Full slate previews starting this week. Follow me on twitter @realBobbyAdcock compliments and insults are always welcomed.