CFB DFS is back! And, so am I with hot takes and outrageous predictions while hopefully COVID is not back. As always, I focus on DraftKings targets each week here on Fake Pigskin. My goal is to identify three to four low-cost/reasonable floor targets as foundational pieces for all my lineups.
This way, you start by boosting your remaining price per player in the range to roster as many high floor/high upside guys who we all anticipate substantial statistical output from.
HERE ARE THE VEGAS ODDS (FAVORITES IN BOLD) FOR THE 8 GAMES INCLUDED IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT DK CONTEST:
|[email protected]UCF 7:00PM ET|||5.5|||68.5|
|OSU@MINN 8:00PM ET|||14|||66|
|[email protected]ASU 10:30PM ET|||-|||-|
|[email protected]TENN 8:00PM ET|||34|||59|
|[email protected]APPST 7:30PM ET|||10.5|||58|
|[email protected]NCST 7:30PM ET|||18|||59|
|[email protected]RU 6:30PM ET|||14|||51.5|
|[email protected]UNLV 10:00PM ET|||-|||-|
For example, I am not going to come at you with hot suggestions like Dillon Gabriel and C.J. Stroud. What I will do is point out that rostering the expensive duo will leave your average remaining price per player at $5,483. This is the price range I will focus on each week. Before COVID ruins another season, lets claim CFB DFS glory on a Thursday night!
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Thayer Thomas | WR | NC State $4,400
As a sophomore last season, Thomas was the 1A option with fellow receiver Emeka Emezie in the Wolfpack passing game. In an offense returning nine starters (including top quarterback Devin Leary who missed much of last season with an injury), and cream puff matchup NC State is projected to approach 40 points. Thomas is a player who had an average line of 4-50-0.5 in 2020 with mostly a backup QB at the helm. He also displayed legit upside with an 11 and a nine catch game, scoring multiple touchdowns in both contests as well. All that said, I think there is solid value at this relatively low price. An established player in an offense that should be having their way Thursday night, Thomas is a great building block piece for the slate.
Cyrus Habibi-Likio | RB | Boise State $3,300
From the speculation department, this graduate transfer followed new head coach Andy Avalos from Oregon this offseason in search of a larger role in the offense. Mostly serving as a short yardage/goal line specialist for the Ducks, there is already talk about him making an immediate impact in the Broncos backfield.
In terms of Vegas projections, Habibi-Likio is in the best game on the board. Just 8-10 touches including goal line duties could easily do the trick at his price in a game of this fashion. If the workload with starter George Holani is closer to a 50/50 split like I think it might be, this could be the steal of the slate.
Also, from the game flow hero section, Tennessee running back Jaylen Wright deserves consideration at $3,100. I discussed this type of target in my strategy guide earlier in the week. The Vols are a yuge favorite over Bowling Green. Wright has solidified the third spot on the depth chart behind co-starters Tiyon Evans and Jabari Small. His progress has been getting plenty of attention in practice. And, his home run hitting speed means he doesn’t need volume to do damage. In a scenario where there is a legit possibility he gets multiple series in the second half grinding out the clock, Wright could pay off his investment in one play.
Charles Williams | RB | UNLV $5,900
If those speculative plays are a little too risky for your taste, consider this senior Thursday night. On paper he has it all. Bell cow role–check. A scrimmage like FCS matchup–check. No known goal line vultures–check.
The game will likely be out of hand in the third quarter so the only risk I can come up with is the scenario where all first half touchdowns come through the air without involving Williams. But, that is a fairly low risk occurrence and still doesn’t mean he couldn’t pay off just on yards and catches alone.
Along with Williams, Rutger’s Isaih Pacheco are my favorite price/floor/ceiling combinations on the board at running back. They both have the upside to compete with the top guys at their position in my opinion.
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Fading Quarterback Chalk
Sticking in New Jersey, the Scarlet Knight offense is scheduled to go north of 30 points in a plus matchup. For that reason, I think there is tons of potential for Rutgers players to outperform their prices. That includes Noah Vedral at quarterback who averaged 15.4 DK points in seven games last season. He’ll be leading an offense that returns 10 starters including every skill position player against an already awful Temple defense that is returning just two starters. Considering all that, I like Vedral to start 2021 on a CFB DFS high note. For very similar reasons, N.C. State’s Devin Leary would be my other favorite option if I am paying down at the quarterback position.
Chalk I Can’t Live Without
There are plenty of quality lineups you can build without paying up at any position for this slate. But, for top dollar Minnesota running back Mohamed Ibrahim and UCF wideout Jaylon Robinson are the safest bets to warrant such substantial investment. Even in a tougher matchup against Ohio State, Ibrahim is all but guaranteed 20 plus touches behind a line that returns four starters from last season.
Meanwhile, Robinson already proved to be explosive at times last season alongside UCF’s WR1 Marlon Williams. Now with Williams off to the pros, his 2020 71-1,039-10 production line has to go to someone. The most likely beneficiary is Robinson who is playing in the best Vegas projected game on the board. Big time FOMO setting in while writing that.
Good luck for the CFB DFS Thursday night slate! Follow me on twitter @realBobbyAdcock compliments and insults are always welcomed.