Fantasy Football Week 14 Rankings With Uncertainty

Fantasy Football Week 14 Rankings With Uncertainty

This report presents a fairly comprehensive landscape for week 14 player rankings in Non-PPR, PPR and Half Point PPR Leagues. I combined all together rankings which I call my all in one ranking (AIO).  I believe that rankings can be more than lists and quick numbers. Fantasy Football Week 14 Rankings With Uncertainty.


Vegas Information

Therefore, I begin with the current Vegas views of the Week 14 games. We can “see” the predicted winners (more fantasy points!) vs losers (fewer fantasy points). Also, the level of passing can be determined by the total points from Vegas.

The games with the highest total points should yield a lot of fine fantasy points. (Shoot-Out). Games labeled low scoring should have less scoring and passing. Below-Average and Above-Average games are also labeled.

These labels are a great tiebreaker between similarly ranked players for your lineups! Also useful in DFS stacking where you might force players into your DFS plays from High Shoot-out games.

Blue Stars are games in this context that should/might/can yield more points than maybe Vegas predicts using Defense Metrics (see below). 

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Defense Against the Position (DAPs) Metrics

The following tables highlight the Week 13 Match-Ups in the context of each team’s opponents DAPS. I give 2 views for analysis. The DAPs measure fantasy point surrendered over the first 13 weeks at the position. Easy to Hard (Green to Red).

An overall DAP landscape marked colorization and DAP type. We can have Easy defenses (Green), Above Average Easy defenses (Light Green), Below Average Tough defenses (light red), and Very Tough Defense (Red) DAPs on a scale of 100 to 0 (Easy vs Tough).

  • Deeper Positional DAPs can spot flaws in tough defenses.
  • Also extreme weakness in a poor defense.
  • Find the extremes as use for week 14 lineups or DFS adjustments. 

I sorted by the overall OFF DAP (Offenses DAP) and that revealed that TB/ARI/MIA/DET/OAK/MIN (GREEN) are seemingly the easy teams to fight.

PIT/NO/SF/NE (RED) are the opposite teams and are thought to be the toughtest teams to face.

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Interesting Fun Facts for DFS etc.

  • Easiest TB except the toughest in RB DAP- 20 DAP? 
  • KC average but so easy to RBs 99 RB DAP?
  • CAR/LAC/BUF/CHI Tough except for the RB at 100/80/66/75 RB DAPs
  • MIN seems tough but 99 WR DAP?
  • CIN Easy except for 67 WR DAP
  • TB/ARI/DET/OAK 100 Plus TE DAPs. All-day Play. 
  • Extremes are Key

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Defense Against the Position (DAPs) Metrics Weeks 14 to 16 Bonus Fun Metrics

Focus on the patterns in the next 3 weeks. Easy Combos should be used for waivers etc.

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Vegas Predicted Game Scripts vs DAPs Combinational Landscape

The following figures present the Vegas view with the DAPs of the teams playing in a week 14.  Does the Vegas view support the DAP metrics?

The intersection of these data streams can provide direction to lineups and DFS plays as well. 

These figures highlight the landscapes for week 13. Fantasy Football Week 14 Rankings.

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Vegas with DAP Metrics Intersections

Use these charts to plan week 14 seasonal lineups and DFS plays. Hunt for these Hot-spots for key DFS moves/Trade/Waivers.

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HIGH Shoot-Out Week 13 Games

None  🙁

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Above Average Scoring Week 13 Games

I consider the DAPs above 70 in a tough background deserve extra thoughts. I use landscape top-down analysis using the Vegas suggestions with DAPs. See the positive scripts below.

See the positive scripts below. 

  • ATL vs CAR  ATL gets sweet RB DAPs and nice WR DAPs  CAR QB/WR easy combinational DAPS. Passing Favored.
  • IND vs TB   IND gets QB/WE/TE favors IND passing Doyle in the mix TB gets some WR DAP to play into.
  • KC vs NE  KC get tough all around  NE gets RB DAPs (Michel/White 1/2 punches)

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See the positive scripts below. 

  • LAR vs SEA  LAR get some WR/TE breaks in here *Higbee again?  SEA also gets WR with some TE breaks in DAPs. 
  • NYG vs PHI  NYG maybe gets a WR/TE positive DAPs  PHI gets WRs to go for the win
  • OAK vs TEN  OAK lets its RBs go as well as TEs (Waller rebound game?)  TEN continues onward using QB RBs and TEs to advance its hopes. 

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Below Average Scoring Week 13 Games

See the positive scripts below. 

  • BAL vs BUF     BAL gets an RB Break! +66 looks great vs the rest of the DAPs
  • MIA vs NYJ     MIA QB/WR Positives (Fitzmagic passing all day)  vs NYJ gets RB/QB/WR (strong play?)
  • NO vs SF (toughest game of the week!)

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  • ARI vs PIT ARI no breaks here. PIT gets RB/QB/WR/TE. Play all PIT players
  • CHI vs DAL both teams get some positive RB DAPs 
  • DET vs MIN   DET gets nice WR DAPs   MIN gets the all the treats in here RB/QB/WR/TE all very positive DAPs
  • JAX vs LAC    Both get teams get some positive RB DAPs

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Low Scoring Week 13 Games

See the positive scripts below. 

  • CLE gets a +76 QB DAP vs CIN gets a nice TE DAP of +78. 
  • DEN gets RB/QB/WR positive DAPs (tough TE!) vs HOU gets tough across the board. 
  • GB RB and TE Positive DAPs. vs WAS which get extreme positive TE (Sprinkle again?)

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Team Player Rankings Averages Week 14

My Landscape fantasy painting for week 14 also includes an overview of each team and a grand player FSP Ranking (Fantasy Sports Professor Rankings) average. These rankings should move you to the top teams and away from the lower teams.

In beginning my weekly rankings I obviously use VEGAs Metrics and DAPs (See Above). Also, I calculate all players I rank in the week and get the average FSP Ranking. The raw averages and scaled averages give us a nice Team Level landscape which is useful I think about generating DFS and seasonal lineups.

In general, these metric points to the direction of my choices on average. DFS Stacks might be better within positive teams this week.

I highlighted the week 14 high average teams Bright Green vs low teams Red Stained.  I try to not overdo Vegas and DAPs in my Rankings Gumbo to figure out the player talent levels. Finally,  I then tiebreak with Vegas/DAPs. Talent is first then other metrics. I added a scaled metric to visualize the team in comparison to league averages this week. 

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Visual Plot for Week 14 Team Scaled FSP Ranks

The plot lets you see the differences in a visual way. Note NO vs LAC is one and two but this week the difference is slight between the two in a vacuum.  Note NYG is off in its own space (Eli is back?). Suggest caution in NYG players.

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Uncertainty Levels for Each Player and Team

The following are a few differences between risk and uncertainty:

  • In risk, you can predict the possibility of a future outcome while in uncertainty you cannot predict the possibility of a future outcome.
  • Risk can be managed while uncertainty is uncontrollable.
  • Risks can be measured and quantified while uncertainty cannot.
  • You can assign a probability to risks events, while with uncertainty you can’t.
  • Week 12 Rankings With Uncertainty

Conclusion:

  • Risk and uncertainty are different terms, but most people think they are the same and ignore them.
  • Managing risk is easier because you can identify risks and develop a response plan in advance based on your experience.
  • However, managing uncertainty is very difficult as previous information is not available, too many parameters are involved, and you cannot predict the outcome.*
  • *https://pmstudycircle.com/2012/02/risk-vs-uncertainty/. This source explains risk vs uncertainty

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Interpretation of TEAM UNC Levels

Remember high uncertainty only means the range of outcomes is large. Thus rankings of players that are highly uncertain should be treated with caution. It does not mean they are low ranked but my rankings would be less accurate!

You can have highly ranked and uncertain players vs a high ranked low uncertain players. Your confidence should be higher with the lower uncertain players. In DFS these players will tend to be solid cash game selections. The high ranked players with high uncertainty are more fitting to tournament DFS plays. 


Uncertainty Levels for Week 14 Teams

I use the uncertainty levels and determine the counts of players ranked as High, Avg, and Low uncertainty. The % of each type of uncertainty is then calculated as %H, %A and %L.  The High H/L metric implies a team with players of higher week 14 uncertainty whereas the lower metrics imply lower uncertainty exists. Red Colorized Teams are more uncertain this week!

I annotated for week 14 the teams

  • Low in uncertainty ( green colorization)
  • CLE/DAL/BUF/NO/CHI/LAC/GB/DEN/LAR/HOU
  • High in uncertainty (red colorization)
  • SEA/IND/OAK/PHI/ATL/TEN/MIA/KC/NE

The table and graph display the week 13 Team UNC levels for analysis. In general, move to low uncertainty teams with highly ranked players. Fantasy Football Week 14 Rankings.

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The Plot of Week 13 Uncertainty Teams

Nice Visual for UNC levels. Focus on these for DFS move to the lower UNC teams if all else is equal! Extremes in SEA/IND/OAK/PHI/ATL/TEN/MIA/KC/NE etc and that implies caution as your plays.

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Fantasy Football Week 14 Rankings With Uncertainty

I present my week 14 FSP rankings with UNC levels for all positions. These average rankings (end column) are sorted High (Purple) to Low (Yellow). I combine my PPR/HALF PPR/NonPPR rankings for an all in one (AIO) experience. I have metrics that suggest it may be better for fantasy players to see/use a global ranking.

Additionally, I list the player’s rankings with their UNC level of High/Avg/Low. Combining all league types leads to different UNC levels. I show you the complete view of your analysis.

The DST/K/QB are the same under any scoring system and thus they have only one UNC level for week 14.

RB/TE/WR will and can have multiple views of week 14 FSP rankings and UNC levels. Use for deeper analysis.

Overall, use these metrics for tiebreakers, DFS cash vs tournament decisions, and lineup selections.

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DST, K, and QBs

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Running Backs

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Tight Ends

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Wide Receivers

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Team Level Fantasy Football Week 14 Rankings With Uncertainty

Players within their team environment is shown below.  These Team level FSP rankings with UNC levels view spot pecking orders, usages within the positions, and team strengths and weaknesses. Stroll through and get the vibes for the team! I like to roll through and note the averages and green colorizations.

All sections should be in contexts of VEGAS/DAP/UNC levels.

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