Please excuse the brevity and tardiness of this week’s CFB DFS post. The distractions from a bachelor party weekend at an undisclosed location have been in full effect. In between all the strippers and blow flying around, it’s mostly just a group of middle aged white guys sitting around complaining about problems that aren’t real problems, and arguing about sports.
Anyway, as always, I focus on DraftKings targets each week here on Fake Pigskin. My goal is to identify three to four low-cost/reasonable floor targets as foundational pieces for all my lineups.
This way, you start by boosting your remaining price per player in the range to roster as many high floor/high upside guys who we all anticipate substantial statistical output from.
Fantasy just got a whole lot better thanks to Monkey Knife Fight. With fast-paced games like Rapid Fire and Either/Or, it’s never been easier to play fantasy and win. New to MKF? Get Exclusive $100 Deposit Match + Free $5 Game
Here are the Vegas odds (favorites in bold) for the 11 games included in the Saturday afternoon DK contest:
|OU@KU 12:00PM ET|||||35.5|||||67|
|OKST@TTU 12:00PM ET|||||10|||||64|
|[email protected]LSU 12:00PM ET|||||26|||||70|
|UT@WVU 3:30PM ET|||||11.5|||||57.5|
|[email protected]COL 4:30PM ET|||||3|||||64.5|
|BC@UL 12:30PM ET|||||61|||||4.5|
|[email protected]KSU 3:30PM ET|||||51|||||2|
|[email protected]PSU 12:00PM ET|||||27.5|||||55.5|
|AUB@UF 3:30PM ET|||||3|||||48|
|[email protected]MINN 3:30PM ET|||||14|||||60.5|
|[email protected]MICH 12:00PM ET|||||4.5|||||47|
For example, I am not going to come at you with hot suggestions like Jalen Hurts and Chuba Hubbard. What I will do is point out that rostering the chalky duo will leave your average remaining price per player at $5,300.
This is the price range I will focus on each week. So, before I ingest the amount of toxins that would subdue an elephant, let’s talk targets!
Sam James | WR | West Virginia $5,300
This redshirt freshman has been the model of stability as quarterback Austin Kendall has gotten the lay of the land in his first year as a full-time starter at the college level. For all four games this season, James has recorded at least five catches, and is the clear top option for Kendall when he needs to covert a big play.
In their upset win over N.C. State two weeks ago, James flashed huge upside, dropping a 9-155-1 line. This week’s matchup with a vulnerable Texas defense should be a great spot for him to continue building rapport with his quarterback. Him and Tutu Atwell for Louisville are both excellent price/floor/upside combinations Saturday.
David Bell | WR | Purdue $4,900
Same could be said here for what looks like the best case to absorb most of Rondale Moore’s targets in Purdue’s offense. After the stud receiver and starting quarterback Elijah Sindelar both went down with injuries during the same series last week, backup quarterback Jack Plummer connected with Bell seven times for 97 yards.
Going into that game, the 4-star freshman was already second to Moore on the team in catches and yards. Without him, Bell and tight end Brycen Hopkins are the mostly likely candidates to see increased production this week, in a game where there should be a perfect game script for throwing the ball.
KJ Hamler | WR | Penn State $6,000
On the other side of that game, this target has that ceiling for a Ja’Marr Chase/DeVonta Smith type of afternoon. The dynamic sophomore is already on pace to obliterate a very successful freshman season, and just recorded a single game career high, six catches last week in their blowout win over Maryland.
Fake Pigskin Exclusive: Join Monkey Knife Fight and Get an Instant 100% Deposit Match PLUS a Free $5 Game!
Yea, I know. Six doesn’t seem like that many. But, Hamler isn’t the type that needs volume to do damage, as his 22 yard per catch average indicates. And, I doubt six will stand long as his career high in what looks to be the beginning of a monster second year for the Nittany Lions. At a similar price to Hamler, I continue to see a ton of value with Clyde Edwards-Helaire, considering his role in the LSU offense.
Affordable Reliable Stacks
Speaking of the Tigers, like the Sooners, we all know that they will play a critical factor in any CFB DFS slate moving forward this season. However, with the stiff adjustments on prices for Burrow and Chase, you now have to pay Alabama prices for their services. It’s doable, but not ideal with four to five spots left to fill when you spend up for the LSU/Oklahoma stacks.
A shrewd alternative this week may be to look in the direction of Penn State and Minnesota. Both teams project to approach 40 points, and have a reliable enough hierarchy of statistical production among their positions, that there is reasonable predictability as to who all those yards and points will go.
For P.J. Fleck’s Gophers, Rondey Smith has been the clear RB1 this season, receiving more than 20 touches in three of their four games. Receivers Rashod Bateman and Tyler Johnson are responsible for almost 70% of Tanner Morgan’s completions and passing yards. And, they’ve been on the receiving end of eight of his 10 touchdown throws.
The running back situation in Happy Valley isn’t nearly as clear, but quarterback Sean Clifford brings some decent rushing stats upside that Morgan doesn’t have. If I had to pick one PSU tailback Journey Brown would be it. He’s shown explosiveness in both the run and pass games, averaging over nine yards per touch this season.
Either way, with their cheaper prices and matchups, there is tons of value in both offenses for this slate.
As I’ve discussed this season, I am not expecting to know much more about this situation before lineups lock tomorrow. But, if you’re into taking big CFB DFS risks, there could be some big rewards in this situation.
The Wildcat’s 4:30 pm EST contest with Colorado is expected to be a back and forth shootout. In a low scoring 20-17 win over UCLA last week, backups Grant Gunnell and Darrius Smith both exceeded 20 DK points in place of starters Khalil Tate and J.J. Taylor. Both could easily attain that production with potential for more in a very soft matchup with the Buffaloes, if the starters sit again.
Fading Quarterback Chalk
As stated, I think there is legit upside with Minnesota and Penn State offenses if I prefer not to spend up at this position. Other than that, I’m not too interested in any quarterback that comes after them.
Although I do like Sam James to maintain his high floor, I want to see it one more time from Austin Kendall and this entire Mountaineer unit before I’m willing to burn a whole slate on the WVU offense.
Chalk I Can’t Live Without
It’s Chase. He’s still under priced in my world. I like getting him and other Tiger/Sooner position players into my lineups. Next to them, hitting the cheaper QB stacks I mentioned will be my approach to hit the cash line.
Good luck for the CFB DFS Week 6 day slate! Follow me on twitter @realBobbyAdcock compliments and insults are always welcomed. Also, listen to my podcast below now starting with weekly CFB DFS recaps!