by Dr. John Bush (Twitter @Prof_Fantasy1)
Washington – Professor’s NFL Team Flash Card
Welcome to “Professor’s NFL Team Flash Cards” **.
** This material is from my soon to be published on Amazon Kindle
Winning Your Fantasy Football Drafts: A Comprehensive Textbook
(Redraft/Dynasty June 17, 2019, Edition.
By Dr. John Bush
With Associate Editor and Dynasty Draft Contributor
Dave Cherney ( Twitter @RoadWarrior_D )
In this time of year, I am gathering my landscape views of the 2018 season. The concept that drives this type of material is from reference class forecasting**
** Reference class forecasting or comparison class forecasting is a method of predicting the future by looking at similar past situations and their outcomes. (Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky). Reference class forecasting is so named as it predicts the outcome of a planned action based on actual outcomes in a reference class of similar actions to that being forecast.
All my Team reference flash cards contain the following:
PART 1 Tabular Data Top of Figure
2013 to 2018 Fantasy Points
Grand Total FP (Last 6 years)
% 6 Year Positional Usage – How does the Team Use their Positions?
% 2018 Positional Usage How did the Team distribute their FP last year?
Positional DIFF (2018-(6 yr average)- What were the weakness and strengths in the 4 Positions as based on the Team’s 2018 Positional usage?
The key metric is the DIFF and that metric sets up the 2019 questions.
- What position(s) need addressing for the team in the rookie drafts or free agency?
- What positions are safe for 2019. (We know the key players are in place to maintain or increase a team’s skill/scoring potential.
- Where is the risk for 2019?
Part 2 Visual Plot of the Teams Positional Flash Card
1) X-Axis contains QB, RB, TE, and WR Positional Sectors
2) Left Y-Axis
Area Graph (Yellow with Black Boundary) 6 Year Team’s Positional Usage
Bar Graph (Purple) 2018 % Positional Usage
3) Right Y-Axis
2018 Team Positional Usages
(Red Lines Loss vs Gains in 2018 for each position)
Here is my process when considering my flashcards. First I key on the Visual Graph and note the highs and lows! Note the ratio data will be in my textbook Chapter 5.
- Current Positional ADP Rankings,
- 2019 Expected PPR FP Seasonal
- 2018 END of Season PPR FP,
- and Expected Change from 2018 to 2019
Quarterbacks and Running Backs
WAS QB– In 2018, the WAS QBs were used +1.2% more than 2017. They put together the 4th best season in the last 6 years but worst in last 4 years. The 2019 view is murky (an entire theme of the whole team).
Alex Smith is injured and is he able to get back. The current ADPs fail to rank him and the Rookie Haskins is the 32nd QB. He is expected to produce 171 FP (poor). Keenum is at 34 QB but put together 287 FP in 2018! The public is expecting him to generate 164 FP a drop of -43%.
WAS RB – In 2018, the WAS RBs were used at a nice +4.4% increase. They had their 3rd best season int he last 6 years. In 2019, confusion exists mainly due to Guice the top 2018 Rookie RB that was injured and did not play.
He shows up in 2019 and the public assumes he overtake Peterson. Guice is the RB 29th and Peterson at 47th. Peterson is predicted to drop in 2019 by -47%. The expectation is interesting. Does Guice take-over later in the season? Does he crush the pre-season and is the RB 1A vs Peterson 1B? How this RRBC sets up is uncertain.
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Thompson the 3rd RB, a pass catcher type, is at RB 55 and expected to drop by -39%. Note the public is taking the 2018 361 total PPR RB points and dividing it by 3. Therefore, there is no expectation of overall RB improvement.
Tight Ends and Wide Receivers
WAS TE – The WAS TEs were used by +0.6% but still had the worst season of the last 6 years. Reed and Davis the TE by Committee is again being in the TE mix. The public predicts Reed at TE 20 and Davis at TE 45th. Note the total of them is 135 FP which is much less than the 2018 TE pts of 210.
Thus, I would think that 65 FP are up for grabs. If we give them all to Reed then he would be a surprise TE 7 or so. That can be his ceiling! A strong TE2 type for sure. Davis is a handcuff and best ball TE3 type.
WAS WR –The 2018 season for the WAS was poor. They were used at -6.1% less than in 2017. They generated by far the worst season for WAS WR int he last 6 years by 120 FP less!
This year has 3 WRs that are not supported by the public at all. Forgotten WRs for sure. Doctson is WR 82 ( 90 FP), Richardson WR 83 (90 FP) and Trey Quinn at WR 93. I note in my Key Player metrics that Quinn if you factored his FP/G for 16 games he would be at 179 FP and a WR 33 type. He has a great range from 93 to 179. A key sleeper for gambling Fantasy Players for redraft, dynasty, and best ball.
Furthermore, if you add the WRs and compare to 2018, we are 100 FP short. I think may Quinn can collect most of those. Be aware of the slack within the WAS WRs!