PGA DFS Memorial Tournament Preview

If you need PGA DFS to help you fully recover from your Memorial Day weekend hangover, you’re in luck! As always, my goal each week is to offer targets in each price range, identifying two to three low-cost/reasonable floor targets as core pieces for all my lineups.

In DFS golf, it’s all about getting your guys to the weekend, first and foremost. Generally, I will fill out my roster with guys in the $7,100-$9,000 range. The factors I consider are event history, course layout versus player strengths, recent form, and prime bounce back candidates who are playing well, but happened to miss the cut the prior week.

One factor does not necessarily outweigh another. And, like any good speculative decision-making process, instincts always play a role. Of course there’s my personal favorite factor–as is the same with other fringe DFS sports–the DK pricing model has no clue what the fuck it is doing!

All that in mind, let’s take a look at the Memorial Tournament (MT) information to clarify some unique characteristics that you may want to consider before lineups lock.

Event Information

Course: Muirfield Village GC  Dublin, OH  Par 72  Yardage 7,400

In terms of non-major, traditional stroke play events, the Memorial Tournament has about as much cache as any on the PGA Tour. It’s founder, some guy named Jack Nicklaus, has a lot to do with that.

The event’s vision and course are a Nicklaus design, who was born and raised near the area. He wanted the event to embody his passion for golf where he grew up, and his off course charitable work with Nationwide. It has been played at Muirfield Village (MV) every year since 1976.

As a result of the all the investment from one of the game’s biggest ambassadors, the Memorial annually attracts the game’s top players, and has always been a mainstay on Tiger’s schedule, when healthy. Here are the past five winners and their scores:

2018	Bryson DeChambeau	-15
2017	Jason Dufner	-13
2016	William McGirt	-15
2015	David Lingmerth	-15
2014	Hideki Matsuyama	-13

Keys to Success

My top two stats to weigh this week in order are:

1. Greens in regulation (GIR)
2. Greens in regulation 175-200 yards (long distance GIR)

While MV is a bit longer than the average course, many tee boxes will present players with bomber restrictions. The fairways are some of the widest on tour, while the rough areas are littered with water hazards and bunkers. With such a low risk/reward on power versus how the course sets up, you’ll likely see most players taking safer approaches from the tee, setting themselves up in those vast fairways, where the money will really be made this week: approach shots.

Numerous green side bunkers and lighting quick bentgrass on the putting surface will mean that a premium is placed on accuracy for approach into the greens. There are six Par 4s that play 450-500 yards, and typically score as the toughest at MV, so making pars on those will be a win most times.

The biggest area where players need to be scoring are the four Par 5s. They are all reachable in two shots, and annually rank as the easiest holes on the course. Positive results on those and the longer Par 4s will require precision from long distance approach shots. In general, stats off the tee should be a moot point with how MV plays. Par 5 scoring and sand save percentages would be other stats I may consider if I’m flipping a coin between a couple of guys as a tie breaker.

To help sift through the field regarding just the key stats I put the table below together using all data from the official PGA Tour website. It is listed in order of each players’ composite ranking, an average of each players’ ranking in the two key stats for this week. Sort as you wish:

Name	Salary	Composite Rank	GIR	GIR %	GIR 175-200	GIR 175-200 %
Corey Conners	6900	3	5	72.22	1	73.2
Rory McIlroy	11500	7.5	12	70.56	3	69.44
Matt Kuchar	9400	13.5	1	73.72	26	60.45
Emiliano Grillo	7900	14	16	70.02	12	62.9
Aaron Wise	7300	16.5	25	69.26	8	64.89
Talor Gooch	6900	17.5	7	71.33	28	60
Jim Furyk	7500	18.5	15	70.14	22	60.71
Justin Thomas	9300	19	2	73.06	36	59.09
Marc Leishman	8000	20.5	37	68.69	4	67.96
Keegan Bradley	7600	21	21	69.66	21	60.8
Jason Kokrak	8200	25	28	69.07	22	60.71
Jason Dufner	7400	29	26	69.22	32	59.48
Lucas Glover	7800	30.5	22	69.44	39	58.75
Rickie Fowler	10600	31.5	45	68.22	18	61.72
Hideki Matsuyama	9100	32	33	68.8	31	59.59
Kyoung-Hoon Lee	6400	32.5	49	68.14	16	62.07
Xander Schauffele	9000	34.5	31	68.98	38	58.89
Gary Woodland	8800	34.5	10	70.73	59	56.67
Sungjae Im	6700	37	47	68.2	27	60.21
Adam Schenk	6400	38.5	66	67.62	11	63.35
Troy Merritt	6200	45	34	68.79	56	56.82
Russell Knox	7100	46	29	69.03	63	56.38
Cameron Champ	6400	46	14	70.27	78	55.08
Nick Watney	6700	49.5	38	68.62	61	56.52
Sam Ryder	6100	52.5	85	66.9	20	61.16
Jhonattan Vegas	7200	55.5	36	68.75	75	55.71
Charles Howell III	7300	56	4	72.5	108	53.6
J.J. Spaun	6500	57.5	35	68.77	80	54.96
Carlos Ortiz	6100	60.5	51	68.11	70	56.03
Luke List	7600	62	74	67.26	50	57.48
Alex Noren	7100	64	122	65.5	6	67.06
Ryan Moore	7300	66	67	67.56	65	56.34
Keith Mitchell	7100	66	23	69.4	109	53.51
Justin Rose	10800	68	134	65.03	2	69.57
Ernie Els	6000	71.5	91	66.53	52	57.29
Brendan Steele	6200	72.5	19	69.82	126	52.94
Kevin Streelman	7400	73	55	67.93	91	54.43
Henrik Stenson	8500	73.5	75	67.22	72	55.79
Bryson DeChambeau	8900	74.5	109	66.08	40	58.33
Danny Willett	6600	74.5	64	67.66	85	54.72
Beau Hossler	6800	75	96	66.41	54	57.14
Patrick Cantlay	10200	79	43	68.33	115	53.33
J.B. Holmes	6900	81.5	71	67.31	92	54.29
Phil Mickelson	8100	82	104	66.2	60	56.63
Byeong Hun An	7400	84	86	66.78	82	54.9
Harold Varner III	6900	85.5	72	67.28	99	53.96
Haotong Li	7500	86	165	63.89	7	65.91
Adam Long	6200	87	131	65.22	43	58.22
Scott Brown	6100	88.5	110	65.97	67	56.13
Brice Garnett	6300	89.5	39	68.52	140	51.52
Andrew Putnam	7200	90	44	68.29	136	51.82
Billy Horschel	7700	91.5	69	67.47	114	53.38
Jason Day	9200	92.5	30	69.01	155	50.77
Danny Lee	6900	93	90	66.57	96	54.14
Andrew Landry	6400	93	87	66.67	99	53.96
Ryan Armour	6100	94.5	93	66.48	96	54.14
Joel Dahmen	7000	99	78	67.06	120	53.07
Max Homa	6700	99	145	64.65	53	57.23
Tyrrell Hatton	7700	99.5	98	66.37	101	53.93
Branden Grace	6800	100.5	80	66.99	121	53.04
Sung Kang	7700	103	103	66.23	103	53.89
Scott Stallings	6400	105.5	125	65.41	86	54.62
Tony Finau	9600	110.5	115	65.84	106	53.72
Peter Uihlein	7200	115	94	66.47	136	51.82
Kevin Na	8400	116	87	66.67	145	51.22
Adam Hadwin	7100	116	68	67.49	164	50
Michael Thompson	6300	116.5	146	64.64	87	54.6
Patton Kizzire	6500	119.5	171	63.48	68	56.1
Matt Every	6800	120	48	68.15	192	46.88
Bud Cauley	6700	122.5	121	65.56	124	52.98
Si Woo Kim	7000	124.5	151	64.48	98	54.05
Vaughn Taylor	6200	125.5	132	65.08	119	53.17
Abraham Ancer	7200	126.5	82	66.94	171	49.63
Sam Burns	6800	126.5	169	63.67	84	54.82
Kevin Kisner	7900	130.5	114	65.89	147	51.18
Brian Stuard	6700	130.5	134	65.03	127	52.88
Adam Scott	8700	131.5	81	66.98	182	48
Rory Sabbatini	8300	133	92	66.49	174	49.46
Joaquin Niemann	7300	133.5	117	65.8	150	51.05
Robert Streb	6300	133.5	160	64.22	107	53.62
Matt Jones	6500	134.5	113	65.91	156	50.75
Peter Malnati	6500	141.5	196	61.43	87	54.6
Bronson Burgoon	6100	141.5	87	66.67	196	46.32
Cameron Smith	7000	144	165	63.89	123	52.99
J.T. Poston	6600	144	147	64.62	141	51.47
Charley Hoffman	7400	146.5	120	65.6	173	49.52
Martin Kaymer	6800	147	202	60.95	92	54.29
Chesson Hadley	6600	147.5	141	64.81	154	50.79
Pat Perez	7100	152.5	118	65.7	187	47.37
Whee Kim	6000	154	136	64.97	172	49.54
Kiradech Aphibarnrat	7000	156.5	201	61.24	112	53.41
Jordan Spieth	9900	157.5	153	64.44	162	50.34
Louis Oosthuizen	8600	159	110	65.97	208	38.1
Rafa Cabrera Bello	7500	159.5	155	64.33	164	50
Kyle Stanley	7800	160.5	116	65.82	205	42.59
Austin Cook	7000	168	153	64.44	183	47.96
Brian Gay	6600	169	178	63.04	160	50.5
Aaron Baddeley	6600	169.5	161	64.18	178	48.72
Matthew Fitzpatrick	7600	171.5	179	63.02	164	50
Ted Potter, Jr.	6100	171.5	144	64.67	199	45.31
Bill Haas	6700	176.5	190	61.89	163	50.32
Michael Kim	6000	186.5	194	61.47	179	48.7
Martin Trainer	6000	187.5	194	61.47	181	48.11
Anirban Lahiri	6600	198	203	60.87	193	46.83
Brian Harman	6500	198	206	59.84	190	47.24
Tiger Woods	11200	0	0	0	0	0
Joost Luiten	6500	0	0	0	0	0
Justin Suh	6400	0	0	0	0	0
David Lingmerth	6300	0	0	0	0	0
Ryan Fox	6300	0	0	0	0	0
Steve Stricker	6300	0	0	0	0	0
David Lipsky	6200	0	0	0	0	0
Shubhankar Sharma	6200	0	0	0	0	0
Luke Donald	6200	0	0	0	0	0
K.J. Choi	6100	0	0	0	0	0
Jovan Rebula	6100	0	0	0	0	0
Will Grimmer	6000	0	0	0	0	0
Boo Weekley	6000	0	0	0	0	0
Norman Xiong	6000	0	0	0	0	0
Alvaro Ortiz	6000	0	0	0	0	0

*player without data have not played in enough PGA events for stats to qualify

Price Range Targets

Chalky McChalkerson (Five figures to 9.1k–11 players)

Yea he’s the only guy from the five figure club and up range I would play this week. On the lower end, former MT winners Matt Kuchar and Hideki Matsuyama are my favorite plays around nine thousand. Outside of Tiger, Kuchar arguably has the best track record at this event.

In 13 career starts here, Kooooch has missed just one weekend, and notched seven top-10s. In fact, his average finish in his 12 weekends made comes out just above T-11.

Sweet Spot (9k to 7.1k–43 players)

Speaking of older white males, as the top ranked general of my DFS battalion, I’ve directed my forces that maintaining control of the Jim Furyk hill is the top priority this summer.

Before missing the cut the last two seasons, Furyk had just one MC in his previous 21 MT starts. I think his mini renaissance translates into another cashed check at a familiar event. As long as his price sticks in this range, I’m pouncing.

Other guys in this range my key stats favor are Emiliano Grillo, Aaron Wise, Jason Kokrak, and Jason Dufner.

Dufner has been showing signs of life, and will be an interesting play here where he won two years ago, his last win on tour. He should also project to have not quite as high of an ownership percentage as the other guys mentioned.

Sneaky Low % Owned (7k and below–about ~70 players)

They probably aren’t too sneaky anymore, but Corey Conners and Talor Gooch have the best key metrics, according to my table above. After a two months off dealing with a thumb injury, Gooch returned last week with a T-29 at the Charles Schwab Challenge. He will be making his MT debut.

Another guy making his debut, ranking as the 16th highest player in my table, is tour rookie Kyoung-Hoon Lee. After a rough beginning to his first season on tour, Lee has managed to miss just one weekend in his last 11 events, which was due to a withdrawal at the Valspar Championship in March.

Seeing how loaded this field is, I am not going to make the outlandish hot take that he’ll contend. But, just making the weekend from this price would return value. And, unlike Conners and Gooch, Lee would be the better low percentage owned candidate of the group. Troy Merritt is my other favorite dart throw.

Best Bounce Back Candidates

• Bryson DeChambeau–If not now, when?
• Xander Schauffele–Tamed by Colonial last week. Missed the cut in his first career start here last year.
• Rickie Fowler–Also uncharacteristically went home early last week. Finished inside the top 10 here last two years.
• Tiger Woods–Duh.

Best Course History Plays

• Tiger Woods–Duh again.
• Matt Kuchar–see above.
• Jim Furyk–ditto.
• Justin Rose–Essentially either misses the cut at this event, or cashes a top-10 check. Buyer beware.
• Kyle Stanley–Been quietly returning to form. Gone 5/6 in cuts made here. Three of the last four has finished T-6 or higher.
• Ryan Moore–Gone 11/13 in cuts made. Eight of those finishes have been inside the top-25.
• David Lingmerth–No self-respecting Memorial write-up would be complete without Mr. Lingmerth being mentioned. If you’re into things not making sense, he is your play this week. A perfect 6/6 history here including his first and only PGA Tour win in 2015.

Core Players

Last season, I started including my core players to build around in all my lineups. I try to identify targets before prices are released to stay focused, and avoid editing my lineup 2,000 times ten minutes before lock.

These selections are players that I believe have top-25 floors with top 10 upside, and a reasonable case to win. More detailed results are to come as the season moves along. This week’s selections:

1. Furyk
2. Kuchar
3. Tiger
4. Wise

Good luck in Dublin! Don’t hesitate to reach out on twitter compliments and insults are always welcome. Also follow my new podcast!

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