PGA DFS AT&T Byron Nelson Preview

If you need PGA DFS because you miss playing Tony Romo in fantasy football, you’re in luck! This is the only time he’ll be mentioned in this preview, but yes it’s true. Romo is in the field for this week’s AT&T Byron Nelson. What a time to be alive! As always, my goal each week is to offer targets in each price range, identifying two to three low-cost/reasonable floor targets as core pieces for all my lineups.

In DFS golf, it’s all about getting your guys to the weekend, first and foremost. Generally, I will fill out my roster with guys in the $7,100-$9,000 range. The factors I consider are event history, course layout versus player strengths, recent form, and prime bounce back candidates who are playing well, but happened to miss the cut the prior week.

One factor does not necessarily outweigh another. And, like any good speculative decision-making process, instincts always play a role. Of course there’s my personal favorite factor–as is the same with other fringe DFS sports–the DK pricing model has no clue what the fuck it is doing!

All that in mind, let’s take a look at the Byron Nelson (BN) information to clarify some unique characteristics that you may want to consider before lineups lock.

Event Information

Course: Trinity Forest Golf Club  Dallas, TX  Par 71  Yardage 7,380

From North Carolina to Texas, the tour heads back to Trinity Forest Golf Club (TF) where it will play host to the BN for the second year in a row. Prior to last season, the BN had been hosted in Dallas at the TPC Four Seasons since 2008.

In TF’s 2018 tour debut, one thing we learned is for certain–no wind = many birdies. With the first two days’ wind conditions being calmer, Marc Leishman and Aaron Wise carded 36 hole paces of 15 and 14 under par respectively.

For context, Leishman’s 127 through 36 holes was just four shots off the tour record. After him and Wise, a handful of guys eclipsed double-digit under par at 36 holes.

On Saturday however, the wind picked up and it had a noticeable effect. Only two players yielded scores of four under or better that day. And, none came from the final groupings.

TF’s heavy links style layout pictured above is the reason. A very British Open like layout without the typical dreary European conditions is a recipe for low scores.

Naturally, the Dallas forecast will have a major impact on how TF plays over the four days. Here are the past winners and their scores from the last five years:

2018	Aaron Wise	-23
2017	Billy Horschel	-12
2016	Sergio Garcia	-15
2015	Steven Bowditch	-21
2014	Brendon Todd	-14

 

Keys to Success

My top three stats to weigh this week in order are:

1. Strokes-gained: Approach the green (SGA)
2. Driving Accuracy (DA)
3. Stroked-gained: Around the green (SGAR)

Leishman built his lead last year by hitting greens. Over the first two days, the big Aussie hit 33 of 36 greens in regulation. Additionally, on his record-setting opening round 61, he hit all 14 fairways.

Judging ball flight on shots where the ball can run up onto the green’s surface from fast fairways is key this week. Players who are able to control their irons into greens, like Leishman last year, will always be at an advantage in links golf.

Because there aren’t as many elevated greens in links golf as we’ll see at Bethpage next week for the PGA Championship, players will have an assortment of options at their disposal when choosing how to play shots near, and around the undulated TF greens. Like Will Hunting, I don’t mind what their preferences are in these circumstances as long as the results are there…

To help sift through the field regarding just the key stats I put the table below together using all data from the official PGA Tour website. It is listed in order of each players’ composite ranking of the three key stats for this week. Sort as you wish:

Name	Salary	SG: Approach	DA	SG: ATG	Composite Rank
Brian Stuard	7400	42	14	45	101
Ryan Moore	8800	23	5	77	105
Sungjae Im	9600	40	53	37	130
Roberto Castro	6800	36	60	36	132
Troy Merritt	7100	80	43	18	141
Henrik Stenson	10300	1	21	124	146
Hank Lebioda	6700	63	58	38	159
Russell Knox	8000	22	97	42	161
Hideki Matsuyama	11000	6	153	15	174
Bud Cauley	7400	75	110	2	187
Charles Howell III	8500	95	73	23	191
Michael Thompson	7200	66	27	98	191
Nate Lashley	6300	15	51	126	192
Kevin Na	8900	101	89	13	203
Adam Svensson	6200	53	114	43	210
Scott Piercy	8400	74	19	122	215
Russell Henley	7300	102	26	96	224
Brooks Koepka	11400	48	102	91	241
Rafa Cabrera Bello	8600	41	68	132	241
Josh Teater	6500	57	72	114	243
Pat Perez	7700	103	84	60	247
Brian Gay	7300	194	4	50	248
Kramer Hickok	7000	178	20	55	253
Rory Sabbatini	9000	139	79	44	262
Kyoung-Hoon Lee	7500	78	49	135	262
Vaughn Taylor	7100	96	36	131	263
Jonathan Byrd	6400	68	146	49	263
Abraham Ancer	7600	104	18	143	265
Matt Jones	7500	136	108	28	272
Marc Leishman	10000	16	129	129	274
Aaron Baddeley	7300	123	139	14	276
D.J. Trahan	6900	114	100	67	281
Dylan Frittelli	7500	70	135	80	285
Ernie Els	6700	145	124	17	286
Brian Harman	7200	205	52	30	287
C.T. Pan	7900	157	66	72	295
Kevin Tway	7600	89	183	24	296
Sung Kang	7300	68	136	94	298
Andrew Landry	7200	98	8	205	311
Fabián Gómez	6700	168	37	107	312
Sebastián Muñoz	6300	149	140	26	315
Keith Mitchell	9100	38	157	122	317
J.J. Spaun	7800	83	95	154	332
Adam Schenk	7000	31	127	176	334
Bill Haas	7100	158	171	7	336
Denny McCarthy	7100	188	81	68	337
Wes Roach	6300	193	70	75	338
Patrick Reed	9800	129	175	35	339
Rod Pampling	6000	208	87	47	342
Anders Albertson	6400	55	128	160	343
Tom Hoge	6300	58	116	169	343
Jimmy Walker	7700	109	203	32	344
Shawn Stefani	7000	100	136	108	344
Justin Harding	7800	213	29	105	347
Johnson Wagner	6800	94	61	193	348
Ben Silverman	6200	147	12	189	348
Robert Streb	6600	141	143	66	350
Kyle Jones	6100	196	33	121	350
Aaron Wise	9400	163	122	69	354
Scott Stallings	7100	30	192	140	362
Matt Every	6700	174	77	111	362
J.J. Henry	6200	159	65	138	362
J.T. Poston	7300	93	145	125	363
Ben Crane	6700	200	64	100	364
Kelly Kraft	6500	91	122	151	364
Alex Prugh	6900	79	106	181	366
Harris English	6900	164	131	71	366
Nick Watney	7400	113	149	105	367
David Hearn	6700	179	9	179	367
Nick Taylor	7000	134	146	88	368
Austin Cook	7400	126	35	208	369
Cameron Tringale	6800	70	182	120	372
Ryan Palmer	8000	34	160	180	374
Whee Kim	6400	92	112	170	374
Brady Schnell	6100	182	33	163	378
Branden Grace	9200	122	167	93	382
Alex Noren	8200	138	152	92	382
Peter Malnati	7000	89	201	94	384
Jonas Blixt	6900	135	105	146	386
Stephan Jaeger	6400	187	181	19	387
Tom Lovelady	6200	172	211	4	387
Roberto Díaz	6600	181	70	137	388
Roger Sloan	6200	108	107	174	389
Tyler Duncan	6300	173	15	202	390
Jim Herman	6000	154	32	207	393
Ryan Blaum	7000	150	96	148	394
Daniel Berger	7500	155	41	200	396
Julián Etulain	6800	128	199	72	399
Trey Mullinax	7600	34	205	164	403
Carlos Ortiz	6600	137	99	173	409
Seamus Power	7700	209	165	40	414
Martin Laird	7200	121	158	136	415
Jordan Spieth	10800	120	210	87	417
Cameron Davis	6700	44	193	182	419
Michael Kim	6300	144	194	82	420
Chris Stroud	6800	130	177	114	421
Kiradech Aphibarnrat	7400	198	91	133	422
Sepp Straka	6200	54	166	203	423
Mackenzie Hughes	7000	152	186	86	424
Chase Wright	6600	156	85	188	429
Hudson Swafford	6500	97	168	165	430
Sangmoon Bae	6400	184	118	134	436
Sam Saunders	6900	107	190	153	450
Ollie Schniederjans	7200	177	212	69	458
Jim Knous	6600	72	195	195	462
Martin Trainer	6500	203	204	57	464
Dominic Bozzelli	6600	190	119	156	465
Wyndham Clark	7300	201	202	64	467
Brandon Harkins	6700	132	200	141	473
Anirban Lahiri	6600	183	154	139	476
Beau Hossler	7100	195	155	130	480
Derek Fathauer	6500	206	75	211	492
Martin Piller	6000	211	172	113	496
Peter Uihlein	6800	185	209	104	498
Freddie Jacobson	6100	162	149	192	503
Lucas Bjerregaard	8700	150	161	212	523
Chris Thompson	6000	176	197	168	541
Sam Burns	7200	169	178	196	543
Joey Garber	6100	212	156	175	543
Cody Gribble	6800	202	196	161	559
John Chin	6100	207	184	184	575
Seth Reeves	6300	210	180	186	576
Curtis Luck	6900	204	198	190	592
Brandon Hagy	6100	180	213	199	592
Thomas Pieters	8300	0	0	0	0
Thorbjorn Olesen	8100	0	0	0	0
Scottie Scheffler	7900	0	0	0	0
Brendon Todd	7100	0	0	0	0
Luke Donald	7000	0	0	0	0
Padraig Harrington	6900	0	0	0	0
Billy Hurley	6900	0	0	0	0
David Lingmerth	6800	0	0	0	0
George McNeill	6600	0	0	0	0
Colt Knost	6500	0	0	0	0
Doug Ghim	6500	0	0	0	0
Andres Romero	6500	0	0	0	0
Chad Campbell	6400	0	0	0	0
Jose de Jesus Rodriguez	6400	0	0	0	0
Ricky Barnes	6400	0	0	0	0
Tyrone Van Aswegen	6300	0	0	0	0
Alvaro Ortiz	6200	0	0	0	0
Nicholas Lindheim	6200	0	0	0	0
Will MacKenzie	6200	0	0	0	0
Will Claxton	6100	0	0	0	0
Zack Sucher	6100	0	0	0	0
Morgan Hoffmann	6100	0	0	0	0
Kris Blanks	6000	0	0	0	0
Chad Collins	6000	0	0	0	0
Stuart Deane	6000	0	0	0	0
Smylie Kaufman	6000	0	0	0	0
Davis Riley	6000	0	0	0	0
Tony Romo	6000	0	0	0	0

Price Range Targets

Chalky McChalkerson (Five figures to 9.1k–10 players)

After a shaky start to 2019, Henrik Stenson form has started to round into shape with three straight cashed checks. He is also the best statistical fit of the five-figure guys.

The guy I would look to in this range if I’m looking to save a little cash would be Keith Mitchell. He continued a breakout year with his third top-10 finish, netting a T-8 last week. He also finished T-3 at this event last year.

Sweet Spot (9k to 7.1k–50 players)

Key metrics bode really well for Ryan Moore and Rafa Cabrera-Bello. RCB also has a solid track record with links style play as 2016’s Scottish Open Winner. He also finished T-4 in 2017’s Open Championship so he is no stranger to success on links courses.

Digging a bit deeper in this range, Brian Stuard has the strongest combination of key stats in the field from my table above. His results lately suggest the stats aren’t an anomaly, making three of his last four weekends, all finishing inside the top 20.

Sneaky Low % Owned (7k and below–about 95 players)

Roberto Castro hasn’t made the weekend in his last two starts. His key stats and softer field make this a great opportunity to cash his tenth check in 13 weekends this season.

Another guy whose statistical fit for TF stands out is Nate Lashley. He ranked T-17 in GIR percentages last week in route to a T-45 finish. Last year, Lashley carded a final round 64 in this event to finish T-32.

Best Bounce Back Candidates

• Charles Howell III–Uncharacteristically two straight MCs. Finished T-9 here last year.
• Abraham Ancer–Been off since an MC a few weeks ago. Should be excited to continue what has been a relatively successful second full season on tour. Finished T-42 here last year.

Best Course History Plays

Not much here with just one year in the books for TF on tour. One thing that will be interesting to see is if this course becomes a video game for bombers, if the conditions are favorable.

Last year’s final leader board had plenty of long hitters scattered throughout the top-10, including the winner, Aaron Wise. If this course trends in that bomber direction, someone like Wyndham Clark would make for a nice play.

Core Players

Last season, I started including my core players to build around in all my lineups. I try to identify targets before prices are released to stay focused, and avoid editing my lineup 2,000 times ten minutes before lock.

These selections are players that I believe have top-25 floors with top 10 upside, and a reasonable case to win. More detailed results are to come as the season moves along. This week’s selections:

1. Mitchell
2. Wise
3. Stuard
4. RCB

Good luck in Dallas! Don’t hesitate to reach out on twitter compliments and insults are always welcome.

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