PGA DFS AT&T Byron Nelson Preview

If you need PGA DFS because you miss playing Tony Romo in fantasy football, you’re in luck! This is the only time he’ll be mentioned in this preview, but yes it’s true. Romo is in the field for this week’s AT&T Byron Nelson. What a time to be alive! As always, my goal each week is to offer targets in each price range, identifying two to three low-cost/reasonable floor targets as core pieces for all my lineups.

In DFS golf, it’s all about getting your guys to the weekend, first and foremost. Generally, I will fill out my roster with guys in the $7,100-$9,000 range. The factors I consider are event history, course layout versus player strengths, recent form, and prime bounce back candidates who are playing well, but happened to miss the cut the prior week.

One factor does not necessarily outweigh another. And, like any good speculative decision-making process, instincts always play a role. Of course there’s my personal favorite factor–as is the same with other fringe DFS sports–the DK pricing model has no clue what the fuck it is doing!

All that in mind, let’s take a look at the Byron Nelson (BN) information to clarify some unique characteristics that you may want to consider before lineups lock.

Event Information

Course: Trinity Forest Golf Club  Dallas, TX  Par 71  Yardage 7,380

From North Carolina to Texas, the tour heads back to Trinity Forest Golf Club (TF) where it will play host to the BN for the second year in a row. Prior to last season, the BN had been hosted in Dallas at the TPC Four Seasons since 2008.

In TF’s 2018 tour debut, one thing we learned is for certain–no wind = many birdies. With the first two days’ wind conditions being calmer, Marc Leishman and Aaron Wise carded 36 hole paces of 15 and 14 under par respectively.

For context, Leishman’s 127 through 36 holes was just four shots off the tour record. After him and Wise, a handful of guys eclipsed double-digit under par at 36 holes.

On Saturday however, the wind picked up and it had a noticeable effect. Only two players yielded scores of four under or better that day. And, none came from the final groupings.

nbcdfw.com

TF’s heavy links style layout pictured above is the reason. A very British Open like layout without the typical dreary European conditions is a recipe for low scores.

Naturally, the Dallas forecast will have a major impact on how TF plays over the four days. Here are the past winners and their scores from the last five years:

Keys to Success

My top three stats to weigh this week in order are:

1. Strokes-gained: Approach the green (SGA)
2. Driving Accuracy (DA)
3. Stroked-gained: Around the green (SGAR)

Leishman built his lead last year by hitting greens. Over the first two days, the big Aussie hit 33 of 36 greens in regulation. Additionally, on his record-setting opening round 61, he hit all 14 fairways.

Judging ball flight on shots where the ball can run up onto the green’s surface from fast fairways is key this week. Players who are able to control their irons into greens, like Leishman last year, will always be at an advantage in links golf.

Because there aren’t as many elevated greens in links golf as we’ll see at Bethpage next week for the PGA Championship, players will have an assortment of options at their disposal when choosing how to play shots near, and around the undulated TF greens. Like Will Hunting, I don’t mind what their preferences are in these circumstances as long as the results are there…

To help sift through the field regarding just the key stats I put the table below together using all data from the official PGA Tour website. It is listed in order of each players’ composite ranking of the three key stats for this week. Sort as you wish:

Price Range Targets

Chalky McChalkerson (Five figures to 9.1k–10 players)

After a shaky start to 2019, Henrik Stenson form has started to round into shape with three straight cashed checks. He is also the best statistical fit of the five-figure guys.

Henrik Stenson (AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack)

The guy I would look to in this range if I’m looking to save a little cash would be Keith Mitchell. He continued a breakout year with his third top-10 finish, netting a T-8 last week. He also finished T-3 at this event last year.

Sweet Spot (9k to 7.1k–50 players)

Key metrics bode really well for Ryan Moore and Rafa Cabrera-Bello. RCB also has a solid track record with links style play as 2016’s Scottish Open Winner. He also finished T-4 in 2017’s Open Championship so he is no stranger to success on links courses.

Cabrera-Bello (Getty Images)

Digging a bit deeper in this range, Brian Stuard has the strongest combination of key stats in the field from my table above. His results lately suggest the stats aren’t an anomaly, making three of his last four weekends, all finishing inside the top 20.

Sneaky Low % Owned (7k and below–about 95 players)

Roberto Castro hasn’t made the weekend in his last two starts. His key stats and softer field make this a great opportunity to cash his tenth check in 13 weekends this season.

Another guy whose statistical fit for TF stands out is Nate Lashley. He ranked T-17 in GIR percentages last week in route to a T-45 finish. Last year, Lashley carded a final round 64 in this event to finish T-32.

Best Bounce Back Candidates

• Charles Howell III–Uncharacteristically two straight MCs. Finished T-9 here last year.
• Abraham Ancer–Been off since an MC a few weeks ago. Should be excited to continue what has been a relatively successful second full season on tour. Finished T-42 here last year.

Best Course History Plays

Not much here with just one year in the books for TF on tour. One thing that will be interesting to see is if this course becomes a video game for bombers, if the conditions are favorable.

Last year’s final leader board had plenty of long hitters scattered throughout the top-10, including the winner, Aaron Wise. If this course trends in that bomber direction, someone like Wyndham Clark would make for a nice play.

Core Players

Last season, I started including my core players to build around in all my lineups. I try to identify targets before prices are released to stay focused, and avoid editing my lineup 2,000 times ten minutes before lock.

Aaron Wise (AP Photo/Eric Gay)

These selections are players that I believe have top-25 floors with top 10 upside, and a reasonable case to win. More detailed results are to come as the season moves along. This week’s selections:

1. Mitchell
2. Wise
3. Stuard
4. RCB

Good luck in Dallas! Don’t hesitate to reach out on twitter compliments and insults are always welcome.