By John Bush

Monday Night Risk Reward Week 5

Game Script Overview, Game Script by Predicted Game Totals and Each Game DAPs

Monday Night Risk Reward Week 5 has my Risk and Reward Analysis will include:

• Game Script
• Defense against the Position (DAP) Data
• Non-PPR and PPR Rankings (100 to 0) Green to Red
• My Risk Assessments for each Player (High, Mid, and Low Risk)

I have constructed these data charts to maximize your visual view of the entire game landscape. Use thoughtfully. My philosophy is less is more. I may hit the highlights but will try not give you the same old tired pundit driven opinions.

I like to see the overall points to be scored, then into the positional DAPs and finally to risk and ranks. I let the bargains come to me in DFS. Do not force yourself to play heavily this early.

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Figure 1 Instruction for Reading my Game Scripts and Defense Against the Position Tables. 

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Predicted Total Game Points

2016 Seasonal DAPs for Each Team’s Offense to face. (Find the Positional Advantages)

Complete Week Thumbnail Overview including Favorite vs Underdog with Overall Defense Against their Opponent (Toughest, Hard, Nice and Very Easy) Deep Red to Dark Green

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Figure 2. A Visual Discussion of My Risk Analysis

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Figures 3/4  Week 5 TEAM PLAYER Counts by Risk Levels

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 CHI vs MIN

Note I have MIN as one of the overall less risky teams this week (1 High-Risk Player). CHI is much more of a team risk (8 High-Risk Players)! That is one reason why MIN is favored tonight!

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CHI

CHI is a true underdog tonight. They are facing a tough -7 overall DAP. They are also starting a rookie QB. I have him as High Risk at 8. He faces a -4 QB DAP. His production cannot be really predicted. Given the MIN defense, it has a low ceiling of 2 TDs

The CHI RBs (A Team strength) are going into the strength of the MIN Defense with a -7 RB DAP. That limits the expectations for Howard and Cohen.  I still have Howard at a low risk 85 and Cohen at 81. The variable is the new QB? The MIN offense could take Howard out by getting too far ahead and it shifts to a Cohen game (good for fantasy players)

The CHI TE has the easy path of a +1.5 and I have Zach Miller at mid risk 71. The TE can be a young QB’s best friend. Zach can score 1 TDs or more tonight.

Finally, CHI WRs are as grab bag tonight. Clarity is only with Wright as he faces a nice +0.7. I rate him at 55 Mid Risk! The others are all high risk in PPR leagues! Wright can score but has a risk!

The game key is the RBs. If they can keep CHI in the game then Trubisky can have time to connect with Miller, Cohen, and Wright!

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MIN

If Bradford plays, the MIN team has a better chance to blow out the CHI team! He is rated through a mid risk 16! Given his injury and first game back risk is there!  He or Keenum (High Risk 6) battle a-11 overall DAP from the CHI defense! The CHI is the easiest on the QB position with a -0.8. That is one reason MIN wins!  They should score 3 TDs!

The MIN WRs Tandem of Diggs and Thielen have been strong and I have them at low risk 93 and 81 ranked this week respectively!  They face a rough  -5.7 WR DAP and that put a limit on them of 2 to 3 TDs.

The TE of Rodolph if Bradford plays is coming back and will reward all who have backed him with 5 grabs and 1 score! He is a nice low risk 84 TE this week even going into a -3 TE DAP!  If Keenum plays, the silent TE role will continue!

The game’s mystery is the new MIN RBs? Cook is gone and Murray/McKinnon are here. I see them as a mid risk group. They fight into a -2 RB DAP. They should get a score! They just need to tread water to allow the WRs and TEs time to score!

The game key is the QB position! Bradford wins while Keenum allows for a CHI upset! Risk aplenty with Keenum!

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