By John Bush

Sunday Night Risk Reward Week 4 and Game Script Overview, Game Script by Predicted Game Totals and Each Game DAPs

Sunday Night Risk Reward Week 4  will include:

• Game Script
• Defense against the Position (DAP) Data
• Non-PPR and PPR Rankings (100 to 0) Green to Red
• My Risk Assessments for each Player (High, Mid, and Low Risk)

Sunday Night Risk Reward Week 4 report has my constructed data charts to maximize your visual view of the entire game landscape. Use thoughtfully. My philosophy is less is more. I may hit the highlights but will try not give you the same old tired pundit driven opinions.

I like to see the overall points to be scored, then into the positional DAPs and finally to risk and ranks. I let the bargains come to me in DFS. Do not force yourself to play heavily this early.

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Figure 1 Instruction for Reading my Game Scripts and Defense Against the Position Tables. 

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1. Predicted Total Game Points
2. 2016 Seasonal DAPs for Each Team’s Offense to face. (Find the Positional Advantages)
3. Complete Week Thumbnail Overview including Favorite vs Underdog with Overall Defense Against their Opponent (Toughest, Hard, Nice and Very Easy) Deep Red to Dark Green

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Figure 2. A Visual Discussion of My Risk Analysis

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Figure 3 Team Player Counts By Risk Levels (Graph and Table)

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SEA has a few more risky players than IND! (Figure 3)

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LOW Scoring Game Predicted for Sunday Night

Expect total game points at 41 points or lower!

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SEA vs IND

 

SEA wins by crushing the IND team. The game script though might favor at a high-scoring game than thought! IND will have to pass and pass to try to win!

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SEA is facing a +1 DAP and Wilson contests against a +3.6 DAP. I expect 4 TDs for him! HE should use his WRs and TEs to accomplish that!

JG the TE faces a+0.6 and should get in on the scoring bonanza! I rate him a low risk at 91 ranking! He could collect 2X!

Baldwin the WRs is injured and may or may not play! If he does he gets a +3.6 DAP and scores 2X. I rate him a low risk 89! If Baldwin is out his 2 TDs split to Richardson and Lockett. They would have a nice game but not a great game! They are both mid risk and ranked near 50. If Baldwin out move them up to near 70 and Richardson at a low risk!

The phenom RB, C Carson, should have an average game battling a +0.1 DAP! Good yards and 1 TD expect. If the game gets out of hand and the SEA team runs to chew the clock CC can get another score! The high upside here and a nice gamble in your DFS tournaments!

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IND really needs Luck to win tonight! Bad Pun! They face a rough go because SEA does surrender points but to the rushing side! The SEA defense produces a -3.9 DAP to QB and -3 DAP to WRs. Brissett is mid-risk and ranked 7! DOes he score passing more than once?

TY Hilton has to have a career game tonight to keep IND in the hunt for an upset win! He will cross swords against a -3 DAP.  He is a mid risk WR at 77 in PPR! Not so hopeful for him.

Can Doyle the TE save the game? He must overcome a -0.6 DAP and needs to score multiples to give IND the win! I, however, can see a score at a low risk and 69 ranking!

Can Gore rush for a score? He gets the easiest DAP at +1.7 and will get a score and yards if the SEA team does not get the game out of hand too early! Gore is still a mid-risk at 57 ranking!

If IND is forced to pass all night they play into the SEA defenses hands and expect scoring from them as well!

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