By John Bush
Monday Night Risk Reward Week 3
Game Script Overview, Game Script by Predicted Game Totals and Each Game DAPs
Monday Night Risk Reward Week 3 has my Risk and Reward Analysis will include:
- Game Script
- Defense against the Position (DAP) Data
- Non-PPR and PPR Rankings (100 to 0) Green to Red
- My Risk Assessments for each Player (High, Mid, and Low Risk)
I have constructed these data charts to maximize your visual view of the entire game landscape. Use thoughtfully. My philosophy is less is more. I may hit the highlights but will try not give you the same old tired pundit driven opinions.
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I like to see the overall points to be scored, then into the positional DAPs and finally to risk and ranks. I let the bargains come to me in DFS. Do not force yourself to play heavily this early.
Figure 1 Instruction for Reading my Game Scripts and Defense Against the Position Tables.
Predicted Total Game Points
2016 Seasonal DAPs for Each Team’s Offense to face. (Find the Positional Advantages)
Complete Week Thumbnail Overview including Favorite vs Underdog with Overall Defense Against their Opponent (Toughest, Hard, Nice and Very Easy) Deep Red to Dark Green
Figure 2. A Visual Discussion of My Risk Analysis
Figures 3 and 4 Week3 TEAM PLAYER Counts by Risk Levels
Above Average Scoring Games Predicted for Monday Night
Implied Score = Dallas 26 vs ARI 21 (3 TDs each Team)
ARI vs DAL
DAL should win this game! They however still will be in a dogfight vs a -1.5 overall DAP! Dak vs a +3.9 easy DAP and will need to score 3X. The WRs should be productive vs a +2.9 WR DAP. I think DEZ is Dez tonight and could get 2x TDs as a ceiling! T Will could catch the 3rd TD or Beasley will! The issue is that RB and TE Elliot and Witten Face -2.4 to -2.7 DAPS. If DAK can get the passing game going then Elliot will collect the 4th score later and Witten as well for 5TDs. DAL should get 4 to 6 TDs to win! If DAK connects and pushes the ARI defense then the Eliot/Witten train places the game into the DAL column! The passing game is the Fulcrum for Dallas!
DAL has fewer high-risk players than ARI! ARI needs it best to beat an average DAL performance this night!
ARI faces an easier time than thought vs a +0.9 overall DAP. They have an opportunity to be competitive this night! Palmer goes against a +1.3 QB DAP and should get 2X TDs or 3. His WRs also have a good game script vs +2.9. Larry is still mid-risk to low -risk +86 WR2 this week. I also think JJ Nelson is a similarly ranked lower-risk player! 1TD each is expected but this game could see a high scoring total and Nelson has a ceiling of 2x TDs! The Running Backs as a RBBC should get a score of two as well vs. a +6.8. ARI wins this game if the RBs go off (Fulcrum of the Team)! I rate Johnson as a safe (low-risk) RB 3 this week with RB 2 upside! Willaims is a mid-risk RB 4 level player! Ellington just might catch a pass or two as well! The TE Gresham is quite vs a -1.1. I think the ceiling is 5 TDs for the ARI team closer to 35 points! This game seems to be trending that way!