Draft Analysis and Diary from 40 Teams

By John Bush

40 MFL 25 Leagues with Roster Management Draft Analysis and Diary

This is an article concerning my Draft Analysis and Diary that reveals part of my drafting diary that I keep for post seasonal analysis. Players can get as detailed as they wish. I propose you need a minimum set of data for this diary.

• Draft Board of each team
  • Draft Pick Analysis (Better at early, mid or late picking)
  • Pattern used in first part vs mid and late parts of draft
• Thoughts about your draft right after
• Overall positional information
• % of players drafted
• Overarching strategy used
• Grade of each team

 Team Analysis 

The table in Figure 1 presents the overall landscape and nature of these 40 MFL25s with roster management. (Not Not Best Ball). Players can add and drop over the season with no trading. I have enjoyed the no trading as I can not stop “trade theft” in a league. I hate to lose because several of the league players are “idiot mittens”!

I have enjoyed the no trading aspect as I can not stop “trade theft” in a league. I hate to lose because several of the league players are “idiot mittens”!

The analysis shows that I played the leagues as one should drafting more WRs vs RBs as the roster required a 3 to 2 ratio each week of WR to RBs! I planned to draft 2 TEs per league and was close to 1.8 per team average of TEs. I also planned on not drafting 2 QBs unless my first QB was not a solid pick. Note the 1.3 QBs per Team Average. My overall thoughts were late QB and early to mid-TE 1 with a backup TE.

Figure 1. Positional Numbers Total and Per Team Basis

A scan of the data shown in Figure 2 gives a glimpse into my picks vs ADPs and Expert’s opinions of my selections. The take-home was I was able to do very well in RBs drafted with a +2.3 ADP Advantage. My QBs were the worst with only a 1.2 ADP advantage. I worked hard to take “nice” RBs and that was always my first consideration after the early rounds. The question was “what are the RBs available now?”. My past experience suggested I need more RBs cushion given the volatility of RBs vs WRs.

Figure 2 ADP, Expert’s Rankings, and Expert’s Average vs ADP

The next block of data is a simple % drafted in 40 rounds. I think the results are clear and my tendency was obvious in each position.

Figure 3 to 8. Positional Analysis of Players % Drafted in 40 Drafts

The following data looked at my draft in a different way that I have seen in the FF world. I have used these methods to enhance my learning over the years. Each Position is highlighted by its own figure. Across the top of each figure is the 40 Teams labeled 1 to 40. Following that row begins the highest drafted player in that position and so forth going down the list. The last column reminds me of the raw numbers the player was drafted and was color coded.

These figures allow grouping of players drafted together. Note Sproles and Woodhead as RBs which were drafted together in 19/40 leagues. Also, see that Gore was in 7 of 40 with Sproles and Woodhead. It will be hard to escape my success or failures in each league as I biased my drafts to certain targets. I had a strong opinion here in the RBs

Figure 9 to 12 Players Drafted By Position and My Draft Team

Clearly, I choose Fleener as my 2nd TE with Eifert or Rudolph as my 1st TE!

I thought in the WRs that Allen was a worthy gamble and took him in 18/40 leagues along with the last pick of Stills and/or Britts as well.

These next figures use a team view to use ADPs vs Positions to uncover my tendencies late, mid or early. After the season, clarity will allow my mistakes here. I also provide a visual graph below each table for me to visualize my drafting.

Note that in RBs, I took 1/2 of them by the 24th RB picked by ADP. I established my goal to have my RB1 and RB2 with the players in that ADP realm. I did not try to stretch my RB2 to draft them late late! I did try many extreme RB gambles in the plus 49 ADP world! I saw I tended to skip RBs in the 3rd block and gambled by some later RBs in the 37 to 48Th ADP range!

Figure 13 to 18 Positions Drafted by Team and Positional ADP

 

 

The TEs position was more straight forward. Using the TE graph, I selected in the top 7 ADP TEs and Grabbed Fleener as my TE2

In the WR drafts, I took 45.6% of my WRs in the top 24th WRs. I filled my WR3 positions with 47% of WR 37 to 48 and 49 plus ADP.  Drafting QBs and TEs occurred while the 3rd set of WRs was being drafted from 25th to 36th WRs. I delayed digging for those sleeper WRs. I can clearly point to that as a tendency and the post season analysis will confirm or not if that was wise.

Moving out to “see” all my players vs ADP, I present Figure 19. I had a “barbell” approach of early and late vs the mid 25th to 36th players. Almost 55% of my players were in the top 24th ADPs for each position.

Figure 19 Overall Players Drafted By ADP over 40 Teams

I finally arrive at the data the reveal my biases by ADP segments. The tabular data in Figure 20 used color coded to highlight my draft selections.

Figure 20 ADP Segmental Breakdown of RBs, TEs and WRs Draft Across 40 Teams

 

I believe that the visual graph lays out my approach in my 40 drafts. I was very balanced in the top 12 ADP players by positions and kept that balance in the 13 to 24th ADP for RB/WRs. I skewed the balance int he 25th to 36th ADP to take more RBs (2X). I came back to balance in within the 37th to 48th ADP zone. Finally, for my gambles, I chose WRs. I wanted to add depth and take a shot. K Stills was one those WRs on my list in this range!

Figure 21. Graphical Analysis of Positional Segments Across 40 Teams

Conclusions

I now have documented my approach this draft season. These data will allow me along with the draft boards to have necessary and sufficient guidance for the 2018 season.

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