Fantasy Baseball: closing arguments – drop Brandon Maurer

After an extended all star break, we are back and bullpen situations have changed. Stay tuned here and on the twitter machine as the trades are likely to come fast and furious over until the deadline on the 31st. Keep in mind that this deadline isn’t all inclusive, some MLB players can be traded after the July 31, but they are normally lesser fantasy relevant players. Just while writing this article, Anthony Swarzak got sent to the Brewers.

Surprisingly according to Yahoo, Brandon Maurer is still owned in 56% of leagues. This makes less sense to me than the Game of Thrones – Bran storyline. That stuff is really out there. This is too high and its time to drop him.

He lost his closing role in the 9th inning with the move to Kansas City. To make matters worse, he is firmly behind Kelvin Herrera who is locked in as their closer. The park move is probably neutral, Kansas City is not a bad place to pitch.The park factor information I have is a few years old but has Kansas City as slightly worse for overall runs but better on home runs than San Diego. Basically the parks are a wash.

Well he still has value as a deep league injury stash or handcuff right? Yes some value in that for sure. But pitcher’s performance often changes when switching to a new team and park. He could be outperformed and lose his 8th inning spot.

Even Brandon Maurer holds his 8th inning spot, there a number of other players in that role I would rather own based on stuff or save upside. He has been pitching well, I am not arguing that. Let’s take a look at the save upside. Kansa City has a W-L record of 52-47, and are currently in an AL wildcard spot. Looking at W-L across all of MLB, Kansas City would rank about 10th. This is pretty good obviously.

However some of the 8th inning players on the top five teams are available and I would rather have them versus Brandon Maurer. This includes in order (with ownership %) Pedro Baez 7%, Ryan Madson 51%, and Joe Kelly 7%.  Madson may be tough to get but the other to should be available and are preferable to  Maurer in my opinion. I would not speculate on the 8th inning relievers in Houston, Milwaukee, Colorado, Arizona because the role is uncertain and they’re clearly hitters parks. Even a guy like Juan Nicasio for the Pirates might be preferable because of their stadium being even more pitcher friendly. If you can’t find a better option, certainly keep Brandon Maurer, but I am guessing there is a better option in your league.

Below is the update Closer List as of 26July2017.

Where it says “TRADE BAIT” that means someone in the 9th or 8th inning is rumored to be available on the trade market. It doesn’t make it definite, just something to keep an eye on.

Current Closer	Next in line	Team	League	Notes
Zach Britton	Brad Brach	Baltimore	American League	TRADE BAIT
Craig Kimbrel	Joe Kelly	Boston	American League
Aroldis Chapman	Dellin Betances	New York Yankees	American League
Alex Colome	Brad Boxberger	Tampa Bay	American League	Boxberger struggling recently
Roberto Osuna	Ryan Tepera	Toronto	American League
Tyler Clippard	unknown	Chicago White Sox	American League	David Robertson and Tommy Kahnle were traded to Yankees
Cody Allen	Andrew Miller	Cleveland	American League
Justin Wilson	Bruce Rondon	Detroit	American League	TRADE BAIT Francisco Rodriguez - released & unsigned
Kelvin Herrera	Brandon Maurer	Kansas City	American League	Traded for Ryan Buchter and Brandon Maurer from the Padres
Brandon Kintzler	Taylor Rogers	Minnesota	American League
Ken Giles	Luke Gregerson	Houston	American League	bullpen needs help
Bud Norris	Cam Bedrosian	Los Angeles Angeles	American League	TRADE BAIT
Santiago Casilla	Blake Treinen	Oakland	American League	Sean Doolittle to Nationals
Edwin Diaz	David Phelps	Seattle	American League	Acquired David Phelps, probably used in 8th
Alex Claudio	Jose Leclerc	Texas	American League	Keone Kela could also get saves
Jim Johnson	Arodys Vizcaino	Atlanta	National League	TRADE BAIT
A.J. Ramos	Kyle Barraclough	Miami	National League	TRADE BAIT
Addison Reed	Jerry Blevins	New York Mets	National League	TRADE BAIT and Jeurys Familia - Blood clot issue - has resumed throwing
Hector Neris	Pat Neshek	Philadelphia	National League	Committee? Neshek is TRADE BAIT
Sean Doolittle	Ryan Madson	Washington	National League	Acquired Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson
Wade Davis	Carl Edwards	Chicago Cubs	National League
Raisel Iglesias	Michael Lorenzen	Cincinnati	National League	TRADE BAIT
Corey Knebel	Anthony Swarzak	Milwaukee	National League	Acquired Anthony Swarzak
Felipe Rivero	Juan Nicasio	Pittsburgh	National League
Trevor Rosenthal	Brett Cecil	St. Louis	National League	Bullpen has struggled, closer role is fluid
Fernando Rodney	Randall Delgado (DL)	Arizona	National League	Randall Delgado DL elbow
Greg Holland	Jake McGee	Colorado	National League	rumored to be looking for bullpen help
Kenley Jansen	Pedro Baez	Los Angeles Dodgers	National League
Brad Hand	Kirby Yates	San Diego	National League	TRADE BAIT and Brandon Maurer Ryan Buchter traded to Royals
Sam Dyson	Hunter Strickland	San Francisco	National League	Mark Melancon DL, has resumed throwing

Notes on changed / possible changed teams.

At least two thirds of MLB teams have changed or are rumored to be interested in changing their bullpens via trade. I can’t run through each scenario in this space. I will cover the most relevant ones for the closing arguments faithful. Below are current closers that may lose the closing gig either for any reason including: being traded away, with new blood coming in, committee or poor performance. 

NAME	TEAM	RISK
Zach Britton	Baltimore	TRADE BAIT
Justin Wilson	Detroit	TRADE BAIT
Bud Norris	Los Angeles Angels	TRADE BAIT
Alex Claudio	Texas	Committee
Jim Johnson	Atlanta	TRADE BAIT
A.J. Ramos	Miami	TRADE BAIT
Addison Reed	New York	TRADE BAIT
Hector Neris	Philadelphia	Poor performance
Raisel Iglesias	Cincinnati	TRADE BAIT
Trevor Rosenthal	St. Louis	Poor performance / committee
Brad Hand	San Diego	TRADE BAIT
Sam Dyson	San Francisco	Mark Melancon due back from DL in a few weeks

Please keep mind guessing at bullpen trades is difficult. Some on the list will happen, some won’t. Others that I don’t have listed will happen. Fantasy baseball relief pitching situations are murky and fluid right now.  But you can also gain a huge advantage on your opponents by either guessing correctly or being the first to scoop up a new closer. Grabbing the new closer for San Diego Padres likely won’t do you much good. I would rather gamble on a lottery ticket [8th inning guy] on a winning team but that is just my style.

I hope this helped and stay tuned here and on twitter as the bullpen trades are flying already. Thanks for reading, pals.

 

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