Week 15 Thursday LAC vs. LV

Week 15 Thursday LAC vs. LV

Week 15 Thursday LAC vs. LV.  This report uses Vegas/Defense Against the Positions (DAPs) Metrics, Rankins (0 to 100), and Uncertainty (High, Avg, or Low). Look for Highly Ranked Low UNC players in the right DAP environment. 

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Vegas

Week 15 Thursday LAC vs. LV

Week 15 Thursday LAC vs. LV. Vegas Says it’s a Very High scoring game with 53 ish total points.

The line is a -3.5 point difference with LV, the expected winner over LAC. That is a bold pick, and I would be cautious. It’s a Thursday night clash, and historically, Thursday games can be tricky. I would fade for weekly DFS. Showdowns should be light in investments! Lineups should also be cautious as well. I think it’s a back and forth game closer than Vegas thinks. 

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Defense against the position (DAPS)

Week 15 Thursday LAC vs. LV.  The Defense Against the Position (DAPS) metrics for this game are shown below. High Numbers (above 50) suggest an Easy situation for that position, vs. Lower Numbers (below 50) suggests a Tough defense to that position.

The figure below highlights the “hot spots” for each team. These positions are the short rule of thumb for DFS and lineups for this week. 

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You can read these metrics like the following:

When LV is on offense, they face an easy LAC Defense of 76/100. LV has the opportunity for many PPR points tonight. The LV RBs get a 94 easy DAP for rushing while the passing game gets 80/55/86 DAPs to QB/WR/TE. Favors Waller/Goff Connections

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When LAC has the ball, they also get a nice easy defense of +80. Vegas sees this and is the reason for the 53 O/U point level. LAC RBs vs. a +92 and collect multiple scores. The Passing is an easy DAP of 76/77/68 and provides nice opportunities for those players on the field. NOTE ALLEN is not expected to play? Caution. 

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LAC Rankings and Uncertainty Analysis. 

LAC will play closer than Vegas thinks, with Ekeler getting multiple scores at 99.5 Ranking but High UNC outcomes. Herbert at low UNC should be able to connect with WRs and Henry, the TE as well. Expecting 2/3 scores from these players even if Allen is out. 

I do think Ekeler/Henry lead the passing if Allen is out. Watch for a long play to Guyton as a gamble for DFS usages. I also note the T Johnson had a good last week. DFS plays? 

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LV Rankings and Uncertainty Analysis. 

When LV is on offense, they face an easy LAC Defense of 76/100. LV has the opportunity for many PPR points tonight. The LV RBs get the best chance for scoring vs. +94 RB DAP. Jacobs seems cleared to play and can collect, but I ranked him at 68 High UNC coming off an injury. His range of outcomes is great. Sad for his owners as they have to choose early. 

The LV passing should go through Waller at AVG UNC 135 Rankings. Multiple Scores? Caution for the WRs tonight vs. a 55 WR DAP. They are AVG UNC 60/40 Ranked for Aghlor/Renfrow

Additionally, that fact limits Goff overall for his max points this week vs. a 86 QB DAP. Goff is low UNC 58 Ranking for the week. 

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My SNAPs Report for this week is here. Snaps Report for this Week

Week 14 Thursday LAC vs. LV