Time to Shine or Ride the Pine: Week 13 Start or Sit

Week 12 was unlike any other week we’ve seen before. Games were played on Thursday, Sunday, Monday, and Wednesday for the first time. We saw some extraordinary individual performances, like DeShaun Watson , Will Fuller, and Antonio Gibson, all dominating on Thanksgiving. Then Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill, upped them all as they sped past the Buccaneers. Of course, I cannot talk about this past week without mentioning the Broncos. They started former QB, turned WR, Kendall Hinton who deserves some positive recognition.

On the fantasy front, none of the starts found the end zone. Sterling Shepard did match my prediction (6 rec 64 yds) with a nice 7 receptions for 64 yards. James Robinson is an every week MUST START and I deserve all the fire for ever thinking otherwise. Lastly, all Broncos were clear sits, and just as I thought, CEH and the running game was non-existent against Tampa Bay. Enough about last week because playoff spots and seedings are on the line! Here is your Week 13 start or sit.

Time to Shine

David Montgomery (Det@Chi 1pm est)

Let’s not kid ourselves here, Monty isn’t exactly a top tier running back, but his snap% and total touches are too good to ignore. Since taking on a 3-down role in week 4, he has played 81% of snaps in 6 of 7 games, while averaging 14 carries and 4 receptions/game. Monty is coming off his first 100 yard performance while also finding the end zone for the first time since Week 5. His Week 13 opponent should have him and the Bears salivating.

Detroit has been very generous to RB’s this year, having allowed a league worst 21 total touchdowns and at least one in 10 of 12 games. Way back in Week 1 when these teams met, Chicago averaged 5.25 ypc but never found paydirt. The Lions made a change at head coach, but that won’t help their defense in the windy city this week. The Bears are gonna give the Lions the Full Monty and David will produce his best 2020 performance.

Prediction: 18 car 83 yards 1 TD, 4 rec 22 yards: 18.3 pts

Henry Ruggs (LV@NYJ 1pm est)

The speedy rookie hasn’t exactly lived up to the 12th overall selection, but his time is coming. He is 2nd on the team with 555 air yards and has seen 27% of the team total. Most of the numbers say that Agholor is the better play, but he is dealing with a slight ankle issue this week. Ruggs has been playing opposite Agholor in most 2 WR sets and has played the same or more offensive snaps then Nelson in 2 of the last 3 games. We saw the big play abilities of Ruggs against KC and if any matchup dictates taking a shot its week 13 against the JETS!  

New York has been very generous to opposing wide receivers over the course of this year and in particular, their last 5 games. They have allowed 18+ receptions in 4 games and 233+ yards in 3. They also surrendered 4 scores against Kansas City, and 2 to the Chargers. The Raiders’ passing attack can’t ask for a better matchup to get back on track and that’s what they’ll do. I think the Jets offense does just enough to keep Las Vegas airing it out, and Ruggs is ready for take off.

Prediction: 4 rec 101 yards 1 TD: 18.1 pts

Alexander Mattison (Jax@Min 1pm est)

Dalvin Cook left last week’s game briefly with an ankle injury, but is not on the final injury report for Week 13. So why the hell would I suggest to take a chance on Mattison? Well, it has more to do with who the Vikes are playing and how they’ll win this week, than Alexander. The Jags have allowed 4.85 ypc over their last 4 games and a TD in 3 of 4. Minnesota is a double digit favorite this week, which bodes well for their running game. During the only game that Minnesota won by double digits this year (Week 9 vs. Detroit), the Vikings totaled 275 yards on the ground with Mattison accounting for 69 on 12 carries. Cook will clearly take the lead but if Minnesota can create a big gap, expect Alexander to be the hammer and potentially find paydirt. If you have guys on a bye (Mike Davis, CMC, ROJO, Fournette), or other injured stars, Mattison is a darkhorse to produce.

Prediction: 9 car 52 yards 1 TD, 1 rec 8 yards: 12.2 pts

Joseph Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports

Ride the Pine

David Johnson (Ind@Hou 1pm est)

He’s been activated off the IR and it’s coming at a perfect time for the Texans, after losing wide receiver Will Fuller for the year. The problem is that Johnson wasn’t exactly lighting NFL defenses on fire prior to his injury. He had eclipsed 50 rushing yards in just 4 of 7 healthy games and 77 yards only once. DJ now faces an Indianapolis defense allowing just 61 rush yds/gm (excluding Derrick Henry), and the 8th fewest receiving yards (325) to RB’s this year. Now with a depleted receiving corps, the Colts can commit more defenders in the box. It’ll be nothing but bad beats from this DJ in Week 13.

Prediction: 14 car 49 yards, 4 rec 20 yards: 8.9 pts

Bengals WR’s (Cin@Mia 1pm est)

It was Brandon Allen who got the call to replace Joe Burrow, and although Cincy hung with the Giants, their passing game took a major hit. Allen completed just 17 passes for only 136 yards against New York, with no receiver having more than 44 receiving yards. Tee Higgins salvaged an otherwise underwhelming day with a late 4th quarter touchdown, Tyler Boyd had only 3 catches, and A.J. Green didn’t record any. The Week 13 outlook is dreary for Bengals’ pass catchers, with a matchup against Miami on tap. The Dolphins have allowed just 8 TD receptions and only 4 of 11 opposing WR’s groups have passed 200 yards on them. Cincy is a mess right now and Miami is in need of wins to stay in the playoff hunt. Cage your Bengals receivers in Week 13.

Prediction: Nobody over 5 receptions, 60 yards, Zero TD’s

Wayne Gallman (NYG@Sea 4:05pm est)

It’s been an extraordinary 5 weeks for Wayne Gallman. He’s scored a rushing touchdown in every game while facing the defenses of Philly x2, Tampa, Washington, and Cincinnati. The volume is there, and so are the goal line touches but they haven’t exactly resulted in tremendous yardage totals. Gallman has only once ran for more than 68 yards, and has more than 1 catch just twice over the stretch. Now he faces an underappreciated Seattle run defense with fantasy playoffs on the line.

Seattle has one of the worst pass defenses that the NFL has ever seen, but they have been a great run defense. They’ve allowed the 3rd least rushing yards (701) to RB’s and rank 5th allowing just  3.63 ypc. It looks like it’ll be Colt McCoy starting for New York, which should mean more men near the line of scrimmage. The G-Men are now an 11-point underdog and Seattle wants to run more. Limited possessions, and a fearsome Seahawks run defense, will make Wayne’s world a bad one in Week 13.

Prediction: 12 car 41 yards, 3 rec 14 yards: 7 pts

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

%d bloggers like this: