Happy belated Thanksgiving! Hopefully you ate your stomach full, didn’t roster Ezekiel Elliott, and didn’t play against Watson, Fuller, and or Antonio Gibson.
Last week continued the 2020 injury trend with stud rookie Joe Burrow going down for the season and maybe next. We saw the Titans right the ship and Indianapolis comeback against the Packers.
In Primetime it was Kansas City taking complete control of the West, and the Rams dominating in Tampa.
Once again I was no help with my start recommendations. Denzel Mims and Jalen Reagor couldn’t mesh with their QB’s. Damien Harris found the end zone early but couldn’t get much going afterwards. I
’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, the article should be Who should Ride the Pine as all three sits performed as expected. Mike Gesicki had just 2 less yards than projected, Gurley ran for just 26 yards, and Rams RB’s combined for just 56 total yards.
See who I think can get you closer to the playoffs and who you should avoid in week 12 start or sit.
Time to Shine
Julio Jones is ailing once again and with the Falcons season floundering, they may play it safe. This would elevate Russell Gage into a larger role and back into our fantasy sight.
With Julio hurt, Gage matched his season high in targets (12) and had his most receptions (7) since week one. Now, Russell and the Falcons get a favorable matchup as home underdogs.
Atlanta is hosting the Las Vegas Raiders who’s major weakness is through the air. Over the last 3 weeks, they’ve allowed the 3rd most receptions and 3rd most yards to opposing receivers.
Over this span, Vegas is giving up an average of 18 receptions for 211 yards, and a TD per game. With Julio nicked up, and facing a beatable opponent, it’s time to re-enter the cage with Russell Gage.
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Prediction: 6 rec 91 yards: 12.1 pts
Since returning from injury, Moss has slowly passed Devin Singletary on the depth chart. He’s played more snaps in three straight games, and has scored 3 touchdowns to Singletary’s zero since returning in week 6.
Now coming off the bye week, Moss should be fully rested and primed to thrive as the downhill runner during the upcoming winter weeks for Buffalo. Having played at Utah, he’s well acclimated to weather and this week that’ll come in handy.
Zack and the Bills host the LA Chargers in week 12 with the forecast calling for winds around 15 mph, temperatures in the mid 30’s and possible snow showers. That’ll be music to Moss’s ears as LA has struggled to say the least against opposing runners of late.
Over their last 5 games, the Chargers are giving up an average of 113 yards, and allowed at least one score in each game. During this stretch they’re giving up an atrocious 5.3 ypc (31st), and 8 total TDs to RBs (T-29th).
He’ll be a favorite anytime TD prop play for me this week and should be in lineups as well. Fire up the Bills new snow plow in week 12.
Prediction: 13 car 62 yards 1 TD, 2 rec 12 yards: 14.4 pts
Shepard has been as consistent as they come this year. He’s only played 6 games this season but has 6+ receptions in 5 of them, and in 4 straight. Since returning from injury in week 7, he has also helped New York increase their average points scored from 17 to almost 24. His uber efficiency and reliability will be on full display in week 12 for the surging Giants offense.
Shepard faces a Bengals defense allowing 15 receptions, 197 yards, and at least 1 TD to WRs over their last 5 games. Even worse, the Bengals have given up at least 1 touchdown to an opposing receiver during their last 9 games.
The Giants offense is getting better and Sterling Shepard is a major reason why. Look for him to continue racking up the receptions as well as possibly find the end zone against a poor Bengals pass defense.
Prediction: 6 rec 64 yards 1 TD: 15.4 pts
Ride the Pine
He’s been the most surprising and quite possibly the best rookie runner this season. Robinson has 17 or more carries in 4 straight games, 99+ yards and at least 2 receptions in 3 of 4.
He has literally done it all for Jacksonville and been the one constant among a constantly evolving roster. Looking ahead to week 12 though, we see their 3rd QB, no D.J. Chark, and facing a Browns team who will deflate the football with their ground attack.
The Jags had just 23 minutes of possession last week vs. the Steelers, and this number will likely decrease even more against the Browns.
The opportunities just won’t be there, and with no threats outside, Cleveland will take the ground game away. Sorry to say, but you cannot trust Robinson in week 12.
Prediction: 14 car 58 yards, 2 rec 15 yards: 8.3 pts
Both Melvin Gordon and Philip Lindsay feasted last week against the Dolphins. They both eclipsed 80 yards on the ground with Gordon scoring 2 times.
This however is your weekly reminder to sit your running backs against the Saints. New Orleans has now gone 6 straight games without allowing 100 yards or touchdown to opponents.
They’ve also limited opposing runners to just 3.3 ypc over this stretch. Find better matchups this week with only 2 games left before the playoffs.
Prediction: Nobody over 50 rush yards, nobody over 30 receiving yards, ZERO TDs
All the worry about Le’Veon stealing touches was clearly overestimated. Since Bell’s arrival, CEH has out touched Bell 41-28 and has 4 TD’s to only 1 for Le’Veon. The mighty-mite rookie is coming off his first career 2 touchdown game and having fantasy players feeling great. This week however, isn’t set up for Clyde to glide.
In week 12 the Chiefs travel to Florida to face off against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Tampa has surrendered just 583 rushing yards and an NFL low 2.99 ypc through 11 games this year.
They have yet to let any teams RB’s to run for 90 yards and limited the Rams to just 40 last week. Kansas City will rely on Patrick Mahomes this week, and single digit carries for CEH isn’t out of the question.
It’s hard to bench such a dynamic player but he’s played just 50% of the snaps over the last 4 weeks and the matchup screams fade.
Prediction: 9 car 30 yards, 2 rec 18 yards: 5.8 pts