Time to Shine or Ride the Pine: Week 11 Start or Sit

Quite an interesting week we just witnessed, in the NFL. 11 of 14 home teams were victorious, including the G-Men over Philly, and a middling Patriots team over the not so high flying Ravens. We saw 2020 strike again with Drew Brees getting injured and now likely to miss multiple games. Can’t end a quick recap of Week 10 without tipping my cap once again to the miraculous catch by DeAndre Hopkins, which propelled Arizona into the division lead.

On to the fantasy side of Week 10 where it was mostly good. Antonio Gibson is the workhorse on the ground for Washington and Josh Reynolds is a legit threat for the Rams. Melvin Gordon along with the entire Broncos offense stunk, and San Francisco got dominated by New Orleans. I missed horribly on Wayne Gallman, who is apparently a touchdown monster, and Fitz is pretty much an afterthought for the Cards. There are only a few weeks left before the playoffs and decisions are becoming that much more important. Who will be helping or hurting your chances? Here is Week 11 start or sit!  

Time to Shine

Jalen Reagor (Phi@Cle 1pm est)

The rookie has only played in four games this season but he has quickly established himself as a threat. Since returning in Week 8 against Dallas, he leads the team in targets (13), air yards (171), and has 1 of 2 touchdowns by Eagles pass catchers. This week he faces a Browns pass defense which has been burned by opposing receivers in 2020. Removing their last 2 games which were played in far less than ideal conditions, Cleveland is allowing 41.7 fpts/gm to WR’s. They’ve given up multiple td’s in 4 games, and over 145 yards in all 7 prior to the last 2 weeks. The forecast calls for some showers, but minimal wind, which should allow Wentz to air it out to Reagor against this very beatable Browns defense.

Prediction: 6 rec 92 yards 1 TD: 18.2 pts

Damien Harris (NE@Hou 1pm est)

We waited a while but I think it’s safe to say that the New England Patriots have found their runner of the future and most importantly, present. Since being activated prior to Week 4 versus Kansas City, he ranks 6th in the NFL with 5.5 ypc while rushing for 471 yards on 85 attempts. Harris leads Patriots RB’s in carries and has seen the most attempts in every game he’s played. In his 6 games, he’s had 10+ carries five times, and 14+ in four of those. Damien is the clear leader when the Patriots want to play bully ball and that’s exactly what they’ll do in Week 11.

This week, the Pats and Harris get a putrid Texans defense against the run. Houston gives up an NFL worst 5.53 ypc, allowing a rushing touchdown in 8 of 9 games, and 149+ yards six times. The Patriots will ride Harris and their rushing attack as they plow through the Texans non existent run defense.

Prediction: 18 car 118 yards 1 TD, 1 rec 6 yards: 18.9 pts

Denzel Mims (NYJ@LAC 4:05pm est)

A JET, AGAIN? I’m sorry, I just can’t quit the Jets, especially this one. Mims has played in only 3 games this year but has produced in all of them. 42+ yards in each game along with playing 96% of the snaps in each of the last 2. The best asset about Denzel is since debuting in Week 7, he has been the healthiest and most reliable Jets’ receiver. This week, he faces a Chargers pass defense that is touted as being stingy but has been beaten plenty this year.

The Chargers have allowed a touchdown in 4 consecutive, and 5 of their last 6 games to opposing receivers. These were games against defensive minded Miami, Run heavy Raiders, Drew Lock (LOL), and Jacksonville. All not scary passing teams, and a couple on similar ground as New York. Denzel and Jets are double digit underdogs and should be passing a lot. Playing from behind with plenty of volume is a recipe for surprise production.

Prediction: 5 rec 82 yards 1 TD: 16.7 pts

AP Photo/Brynn Anderson

Ride the Pine

Todd Gurley (Atl@NO 1pm est)

Gurley has seen a bit of a fantasy revival as he ranks 2nd in the NFL with 9 rushing touchdowns. Taking a look behind the curtain however, we see a different story. Although the volume is there, Todd has only eclipsed 80 TOTAL (not just rushing) yards ONCE! He is playing about 58-65% of the snaps on average and is averaging an abysmal 2.6 ypc over his last 4 games. The scary thing about that is those games were against Detroit, Carolina, and Denver. All are bottom ten against RB’s in terms of yards allowed this year. This week, the opposition will be much more difficult to defeat. 

The New Orleans Saints rank 3rd in yards against (611), 1st in fpts/gm (13.3), and have not allowed a running back to score in 5 consecutive games. This week, the Saints won’t have Drew Brees so the defense will no doubt have more motivation to shut down Gurley and the Falcons. TG3 has tremendous scoring equity but this week the Falcons runner will have his wings clipped.

Prediction: 17 car 45 yards, 2 rec 12 yards: 6.8 pts 

Mike Gesicki (Mia@Den 4:05pm est)

The breakout season hasn’t happened and there isn’t much magic left for Mike. He has 4 games with 1 or no catches, gone over 42 yards only twice, and has only 2 touchdowns. Since Tua has taken over, Gesicki has 1,3, and 2 receptions, along with a total of 90 receiving yards. Miami is a ball control team that will rely on their defense to win games. This will be the gameplan in Week 11 as they travel to Mile High to face Denver.

The Broncos are not a good football team right now, and may be without Drew Lock once again. For all their faults, their defense has been somewhat stingy to the TE position. They have prevented a TE from finding the end zone in their last eight games against the likes of Gronk, Kelce, Henry, Hurst, and Waller. Also, I don’t think that Miami will be airing it out during a game they’re currently 3 ½ point road favorites. I expect this to be a slow-paced game with lots of running. Better days will be had but just not this week.

Prediction: 4 rec 45 yards: 6.5 pts

Rams RB’s (LAR@TB MNF 8:15pm est)

The Rams’ backfield has been a bit of a mystery on a weekly basis, but has produced fantastic value. Each week it has been a different guy that was the lead dog and or who scored the touchdowns. They lean heavily on their ground game which helps their play-action passing attack. This week however, Los Angeles faces their toughest test yet, against the Buccaneers. Tampa has yet to allow any backfield to go over 100 yards, and is limiting RB’s to just 3.03 ypc on the year. The Rams indecision of roles, along with facing the top rush defense make this backfield too scary to trust.

Prediction: Nobody over 50 rush yards, nobody over 30 receiving yards, ZERO TD’s

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