NFL Eliminator Challenge: Week 11

Welcome to Week Eleven of our NFL Eliminator Challenge series.  Last week we dropped back to 2-1, for one reason: we ignored out own rules.  Our two top picks (Green Bay and New Orleans) both took care of business at home.  However, we took a risk with our third pick Baltimore, who was playing in prime time (rule 2) and was on the road (rule 3).  Time to do a better job listening to our own advice.  Feel free to comment at the bottom or hit me up on Twitter!

Step 1 – Avoid Division Matchups

If you know what’s best for you, you will keep avoiding these games.  The Colts upset the Titans in Tennessee.  The Giants beat division leading Philly in New York to make that division even less clear.  The Rams even beat Seattle in LA, causing Wilson to start losing his grip on an MVP trophy many thought he had in the bag.  I’ve said it once and I’ll say it again, do yourself a favor and avoid the below division games:

  • Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks
  • Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints
  • Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders

Step 2 – Avoid Marquee Matchups

We already talked about Indy upsetting the Titans on Thursday night.  We know the Sunday night upset in New England killed one of our picks of the week.  Hell, even the Monday night game was close even with the Bears not having a viable option at QB.  Unless you want to take a chance, I would avoid the below marquee games:

  • Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks
  • Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders
  • Los Angeles Rams @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Step 3 – Avoid Picking Against Home Field Advantage

Last week we finally saw home field advantage start to show up in 2020.  On Sunday, there were 12 games throughout the day.  Of those 12 games, 11 were won by the home team, including upsets by the Giants, Patriots, Rams and an absolute thriller by the Cardinals.  We will continue to keep an eye on this rule for 2020 but for now I’m still going to play it safe and avoid the below games where the favorite is the away team:

  • Pittsburgh Steelers @ Jacksonville Jaguars
  • Miami Dolphins @ Denver Broncos
  • Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders

Step 4 – Make your pick!

My pick of the week is:

  • Los Angeles Chargers over the New York Jets

The LA Chargers have had a tough season.  While they may only be 2-7, they haven’t lost a game by double digits, and lost to both the Chiefs and Saints by only three points.  In comes the worst team in football.  The game is in LA, and teams don’t usually travel well across the country.  This should be an easy choice.

Other options I like this week:

  • Minnesota Vikings over the Dallas Cowboys

While the Vikings record may not give you warm and fuzzy feelings, the Vikings are on a run.  Over the past three weeks they beat the Packers and Bears on the road, while also beating the Lions handedly at home.  Next up is the Dallas Cowboys, a team on a four-game losing streak, who haven’t been the same since they lost their starting QB.  While this will be closer than the Chargers game, the Vikings should win this one.

  • Baltimore Ravens over the Tennessee Titans

Most eliminator articles here are going to have the 9-0 Steelers over the 1-8 Jaguars, but here’s why I am avoiding that game.  It is very hard to go 16-0.  Three of the Steelers last four wins were by five points or less.  The Jaguars on the other hand, almost beat the Packers last week and almost beat the Texans the week before.  Just too much uncertainty there with the Steelers on the road and due for a loss.  Instead I’m banking that the Ravens are too good a team to lose two in a row and that the Titans seem very vulnerable right now.

Last Week Record = 2-1

Season Record = 22-7

Follow me on twitter and let me know what you think of this week’s picks @DE_aaron!

https://twitter.com/DE_aaron

Thanks for reading!

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