Week 10 Rankings With Uncertainty

Week 10 Rankings With Uncertainty

Week 10 Rankings With Uncertainty. I have discussed decisions under uncertainty before in my many articles.

The approach I use is synthesis of many data streams that provide input for different scenarios that may exist in fantasy football.

Additionally, I also move from the Top-Down Broad into the Specific. Having been a scientist for 35 years, deconstruction is a strong method for investigating hypothesis testing and research findings.

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Week 10 Team Average PPR Based Rankings 

Week 10 Rankings With Uncertainty. The framing of the week’s teams by highlighting their average fantasy sports professor’s rankings (FSPR) is essential to finding sweet spots for line-ups and DFS plays.

(GREEN High/RED-Weak Plays)

The top teams in Week 10 for fantasy are GB/LAR/NO/PIT, and many have a solid matchup, and some could surprise this week. I move towards these teams in DFS.

The bottom teams here are NE/JAX/MIA/SF/NYG  for week 10, and these are the extremes. Additionally, these teams have various issues this week. Move away from them, especially for any gamble or marginal DFS plays.

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Week 10 Team Rankings

I constructed this Bar graph to visualize the pecking order of teams in week 10. 

Week 10 Rankings With Uncertainty

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Team Level Uncertainty

Week 10 Rankings with Uncertainty. Thus, I begin with a look at this week’s Team level of uncertainty.

  • High uncertainty suggests deeper thinking and more caution in DFS and line-ups.
  • On the other hand, low uncertainty teams can provide us with DFS stacks and deep players into our line-ups.

The table below presents week 10’s UNC numbers from each team (High, AVG, and Low). Additionally, I calculated a ratio of Team players High or AVG in UNC vs. Low UNC (HA/L).

Interestingly, this ratio gives a look into the Team’s overall uncertainty for your consideration. Finally, I colorized the numbers and team names to give the overall UNC landscapes.

Move toward the lower UNC teams in DFS and away from the higher UNC teams. For example, move to LAR/PHI/SEA/LAC  (bold picks for some). 

Additionally, I will be moving away from CHI/HOU/JAX/CAR for DFS.  In redrafts, the top players only in CAR/HOU/JAX/CAR beware of deeper plays. 

Week 10 Rankings With Uncertainty

 

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Week 10 Team Uncertainty Landscape

I use it as a resource for a visual view of lineups and DFS plays for week 10. Good for close choice separations. 

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Player PPR Rankings with UNC Levels by Positions

Week 10 Rankings With Uncertainty. These following figures place all players within their positions of my rankings and uncertainty levels.

Use these metrics to establish levels for your DFS and Line-ups plays.  Make sure that these are combined with my Match-Up Analysis upcoming. Scan first, then drill down to ask questions.

Each Data Block consists of:

  • Team 
  • Players 
  • HIGH AVG or LOW UNC
  • FSPR under their UNC level.
  • FSPR Ranking 

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Defenses

  • MIN will be a surprise positive DEF.
  • SF is High in Uncertainty for week 10. 

Week 10 Rankings With Uncertainty

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KICKERs

Sanders from MIA should be available if need this week. 

Week 10 Rankings With Uncertainty

 

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Quarterbacks

Herbert is a high ranked lower UNC play in week 10.

Week 10 Rankings With Uncertainty

 

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Running Backs

Usual Suspects at the top. Connor can come back but is High UNC for week 10. Consider these RB rankings for DFS, especially risker plays for tournaments. 

Week 10 Rankings With Uncertainty

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Week 10 Rankings With Uncertainty

 

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Tight Ends

Waller is the week 10 greatest of the TE players. However, Cook is the best low UNC TE for Week 10.

Week 10 Rankings With Uncertainty

 

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Week 10 Rankings With Uncertainty

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Week 10 Rankings With Uncertainty

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Wide Receivers

Diggs and Hopkins High UNC High ranked. Metcalf/Woods stands out as a nice low UNC WR for DFS. 

Week 10 Rankings With Uncertainty

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Week 10 Rankings With Uncertainty

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Week 10 Rankings With Uncertainty

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Week 10 Rankings With Uncertainty

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Professor’s MATCH-UP ANALYSIS

Week 10 Rankings With Uncertainty. I present the heart of my week 10 analysis for line-ups, and DFS plays. Fantasy Football is a weekly game that places Teams into different environments, and outcomes are based on those situations.

Firstly, I use Vegas Metrics to frame the scoring potential of all games. Move toward higher scoring games.

Secondly, I bring onto the table the match-ups defense against the positions metrics (DAPs) to see the sweet spots and traps for the players.

Thirdly, I like to go toward safer, easy spots for players, but stud players are those that can fight through adversity. Weak deeper plays are only advised in higher-scoring games.

As the predicted Vegas points go down, you should get more cautious except in tournament DFS where going contrary can be profitable. 

Finally, I focus on talent, not hype! Ignore the sizzle and chew into the game bottom lines!

Weather: Wind >20mph is a factor in passing—tone down your picks as needed.

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Week 10 Vegas High Scoring Games (above 49 total game points)

Week 10 Rankings With Uncertainty. The table below lists the 7 games that Vegas suggests will be high scoring this week, and thus, you should move toward these games for DFS Stacks, etc., as well as deeper plays in your line-ups. You must still use common sense but look extra hard to find surprises in these games.

Week 10 Rankings With Uncertainty

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Example Analysis- BUF vs. ARI

Each Game Matchup Begin with a Defense Against the Positions DAPs for each team offense to deal with.

Week 10 Rankings With Uncertainty

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When ARI is on Offense, they have a tough spot for its WRs at +37 of 100. The RB/QB/TE all have an easy DAP environment. ARI is picked as the favorite to win but not by much. Close Shoot-Out Game. 

Murray is the top QB at 100 Low UNC. DFS Stack? Edmonds Pass Catching 84 Low UNC. Hopkins is 100 but High UNC vs. Kirk at 63 Low UNC. Trick to pick which one to DFS stack? Gamble is DHOP vs. Cash DFS is Kirk Stack. 

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When BUF has the ball, they face a nice passing/receiving environment that plays to Allen vs. Diggs/Brown DFS Stacks. The danger for me is the RBs. Moss and Singletary cut each other’s value. Moss is ahead as he is a more Red Zone use at 62 low UNC. The RBs face a tougher +46 RB DAP. FYI, Davis, the WR could be a surprise as well. 

Week 10 Rankings With Uncertainty

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Week 10 Rankings With Uncertainty

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Week 10 Vegas Above Average Scoring Games (above 45 total game points)

Week 10 Rankings With Uncertainty. The table below lists the 3 games that Vegas suggests will be above average scoring this week, and thus, you might move toward these games for DFS Stacks, etc. as well as deeper plays in your line-ups. They could be solid DFS plays but be thoughtful.

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Week 10 Vegas Below Average Scoring Games (44 total game points or less)

Week 10 Rankings With Uncertainty. 3 Games predicted to be low scoring—caution in using players in here.  

 

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Week 10 Rankings With Uncertainty.

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