Week 9 Targets and Touches

Week 9 Targets and Touches

Week 9 Targets and Touches. My weekly routine is analyzing various fantasy football metrics, including:

  • Snaps per Second of Offensive Possession. See Below
  • Snaps Report for this Week
  • Targets and Touches
  • Vegas Over-Under Lines
  • Defense Against the Position
  • My Rankings with Uncertainty Analysis. (Coming Saturday)

We must deal with decisions under uncertainty in fantasy football.

**A range of potential futures can be identified at level three uncertainty. A limited number of key variables (See Above) define that range, but the actual outcome may lie anywhere within it. There are no natural discrete scenarios.

** https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/strategy-under-uncertainty#

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Week 4 to 9 Team Target Averages vs. Targeting Efficiency

Week 9 Targets and Touches. I always begin in a top-down approach, and, n this case, I focus on the top target generating teams. Clear value in PPR scoring!

I then highlight the extremes from High (green) and Low (red) of all the NFL teams.  Green staining marks the High Target Efficiency teams. Add Value to their pass-catchers!

Note the green colorization mark the tops in Team Targeting Efficiency. These High Target Efficiency teams are DAL/CHI/LAR/JAX/HOU/WAS/SEA/SF/TB Notice DAL is dropping fast. These are the teams to focus on pass-catcher depth. 

Do all teams have strong targeting efficiency? No, NO/NYG/MIN/LV/BAL/MIA is the low-efficiency teams. The flip-side teams -Stained Red – are lower in the average targets and efficiency.  Subtract week 10 value from their WRs. Rushing is more favored in those teams. Stock-pile RB handcuffs etc. 

These data trends are going to be trailing and these can change. DAL dropping for example. Caution. 

I list the 4 groups for your knowledge.

  • High Target-Low Eff
  • Low Target-High Eff
  • High Targets – High Eff
  • Low Targets- Low Eff

Week 9 Targets and Touches

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Team Target Averages vs Targeting Efficiency Weeks 4 to 9

Week 9 Targets and Touches. The visual view of the team targets is shown below. I like to graph data points compared to the league average of 35 targets efficiency; see the pink line graph below. This allows me in a glance to see what teams were above or below the averages efficiency.

Additionally, I colorized the lines with green vs. red. Consider the reasons why and is this week going to be different? Finally, use Vegas and Defense against the Positions (DAPS) to investigate that question! 

I present Team Target Efficiency first to showcase Teams across the league vs. league targeting averages. We must know the extremes for our finger-tip knowledge in line-ups and DFS plays. 

Extremes in Teams

KEY Extremes in High Targeting are marked by Blue Stars designation above the team names. Move-in PPR leagues toward them and away from lower Target Efficient teams on average. (Yes, other data can and will modify those trends, but we start here first). 

Additionally, consider why? What is going on in the top and bottom teams? Game Scripts etc. and is there a change this week? The interesting teams are TEN and DET, which are high target efficiency but much lower total targets from weeks 4 to 9. Seems they had issues with the QB/WR/Tough Schedule? If things change, these teams could surprise. Additionally, CIN is a high target team but low efficiency from the rookie QB. Remember this next year! NYJ, BUF, and ATL also have that same issue as well. 

Week 9 Targets and Touches

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Targeting Averages Week 4 to 9 vs. Team Positional Usages 

Week 9 Targets and Touches. I continue a drill down to see each team’s position in targeting averages weeks and positional usages from Weeks 4 to 9.

The actionable data here is what you can deduce from the trends.

Additionally, This landscape view is superior to what happened last week only. This broad view is a skill needed to improve your Fantasy Football Playing.

I look for extremes and unusual/surprising metrics. In these data, Teams are going to grade out higher in WRs (more of them) so if a team is overusing its RB or TE then the WR usages will be lower and standout.

EXTREMES= GREEN High Usages vs. RED Low Team Usages. Note!  I consider the strong vs. weak positional usages. Find those positions and use those extremes for week 10 DFS and Line-Ups. 

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ARI/ATL/BAL/BUF

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Bar Graph Patterns

Also, I include a visual bar graph of the team positional usages as well. Give this a soft scan for developing opinions for DFS and lineups. Each block of data included 4 teams at a time. I like to see the bar and line patterns. 

Find interesting situations! EXTREMES= GREEN High Usages vs. RED Low Team Usages. Note! 

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CAR/CHI/CIN/CLE

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DAL/DEN/DET/GB

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HOU/IND/JAX/KC 

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LAC/LAR/LV/MIA

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MIN/NE/NO/NYG

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NYJ/PHI/PIT/SEA

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SF/TB/TEN/WAS 

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Targets and Usage Efficiency Within Positions.

Week 9 Targets and Touches. You must also consider the player’s ranking among their position. 

High Use within the Team but Low in the League is different than High and High.

That should give your concerns for league lower players in targets. Weak teams are known to have poor depth in PPR scoring. Scan through the positions and find the unusual and extremes. ** Assuming FF data is normally distributed?

In an extreme value analysis, extreme events are defined to be those observations in a sample which are unusually high, or low, and are therefore considered to occur in the tails of a probability distribution.

Standard statistical methods are designed to characterize the mean behavior of a process or data sample and are therefore not generally useful for capturing this tail behavior.

https://www.lancaster.ac.uk/maths/research/statistics/extreme-value-statistics/

The following positional based tables have been sorted by Week 4 to 9 Team Targeting Positional Usages vs. Average Targets. Move to the strong using teams. 

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Running Backs Targeting Table and Bar Graph RBs Targets vs. Usages.

  • Top teams (GREEN) in RB Usages are NO/WAS/CAR/GB/NE/CHI/JAX/ARI/CIN, all above 33% in RB usages!
  • Weak RB Team Usages (RED) are SF/TEN/PIT/ATL/CLE/LAR/NYG/NYJ/MIN/LV/BAL/PHI below 23% usages

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Tight Ends

  • TE Targeting Centric Teams (Above 36% Usage) are SF/LV/BAL/NYG/KC/PHI/ATL/DET/CLE/PIT
  • NE/CAR/ARI/CIN/NYJ/NO/BUF/HOU/WAS/SEA/GB/MIA all below 25% TE Usages.
  • Interesting in CHI/LAR/DAL/TB/DEN/TEN given the recent TE activity (watch)

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Wide Receivers  

  • The top WR usage teams are NYJ/NE/BUF/HOU/ARI/LAR/MIN/SEA/MIA/CAR teams, with WRs used above 48%. Key deeper WRs are viable on these teams.
  • LV/SF/WAS/DET/BAL/GB/NO/KC/TB/CHI/JAX are poorer WR Targeting using teams who are using the RB and/or TE to compensate. Beware depth WRs on these teams.


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Bonus- Analysis of Positional Targeting Usages.

Bonus, I was curious about the positional trend relationships. This is the depth I go into in my FF Textbook on Kindle 2021 version coming in July 2021? 

WRs are greatly used in targeting from all teams vs. TE/RB. 

TEs show an extreme slope drop in trends from the league. Thus poor TE targeting teams are terrible vs. RB and WRs!  The idea of TEs being the same in your drafts and DFS seems wrong! 

Week 9 Targets and Touches

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Team Positional Player Week 4 to 9 Targets, Target Averages, and DIFFs

Week 9 Targets and Touches. I next drill down into these metrics within each Team. Fantasy Football is a weekly Team based game!

Secondly, I added the player usages within their teams for the “pecking order” and DIFFs to catch improving or declining players. 

These sorted tables contain:

  • Team
  • Position
  • Player
  • Targets Week  4 to 9                         ( High to Low – Green to Red)
  • Target Averages                                 ( High to Low – Blue to Red)
  • Late vs. Early DIFFs                          (High to Low -Purple to Yellow)
  • 2 Weeks DIFFs                                    (High to Low -Purple to Yellow)

I like to use these metrics as a reference in the context of Vegas and DAPs. Is the pecking order real? Is the production real, and will be replicated this week? Find the unusual and extreme. I scan for those and note those. 

My Week 10 Rankings are out tomorrow, FYI. 

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Running Backs AVG Targets and DIFFs

Extremes are of interest. Scan in the DIFFs for short/long term changes—Green X vs. Red Z. 

Example Elliot is lower used in recent weeks -4.7, White at -5.2, Carson at -3.5. and Gibson at -3.  Kamara is up +2, Gaskins +1.7,  Jackson +1.5, etc


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Tight Ends AVG Targets and DIFFs

Engram +4.7,  TJH at +3.5, Hurst +2, Everett at +4, and Rodgers +5

Kittle -5.5, Fisker at-3.3, and Tonyan at-1.7

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Wide Receivers AVG Targets and DIFFs

Adams +3.3, Kupp +5.5, Allen +4.7, Lockett +6.2, Hill +6.3, and JuJu at +5.2. 

Sanders -6.5, Robinson -5, Crowder -9, Cooper -4, and Lamb at -3.7. DAL players taking the hits caution ROS! 

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Running Back Touches with % Rushing vs. Receiving (ATTs vs. Targets)

Week 9 Targets and Touches.  RBs are the most difficult position in fantasy football to calculate because they both rush and catch. That fact then opens more possibilities within the game. Therefore, we must consider that extra dimension for RBs, especially in PPR leagues. 

The easy RB to figure is one that does both catch and rush. The harder RBs are the pass-catcher only types as they are game script dependent. Thus if you have a pass-catcher RB (i.e., Edmonds 71% catching), you must consider the way that game might go. See Vegas and DAPs as a foundation for your thinking. 

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Team Level RB Rushing Attempts vs. Targets with Rush/Pass Ratios

Week 9 Targets and Touches.  We must understand the nature of each team towards its use of RBs in rushing and passing.

Firstly, I calculated each Team’s Rush/Pass Ratio and Sorted all teams by that metric. Next, I note extreme in RB ratios. I highlighted the extremes using RRR vs. TTT. Finally, use these metrics for actionable data for Week 10 DFS.

  • All Rushing Teams Stained Purple

  • TEN/BAL/CLE/PIT/LAR/NYJ/MIN/ARI/DEN.

  • All Pass-Catching Teams Stained Yellow

  • NYG/NE/SF/NO/WAS/KC/SEA/CAR/PHI/MIA/TB

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TEAM RB Rush/Target Ratios

Rushing Biased (Green) to Pass-Catching RB Teams from Left to Right.

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Team Level Rushing Attempts vs Targets with Averages. 

It is important to determine each RBs activity in rushing vs. pass-catching. Observing the trends is essential for considering this week’s performance. I would stroll through to get a sense of the trends. 

These tables contain:

  • 4 Teams

  • RB Players

  • Rush ATTs Weeks 4 to 9

  • Targets Weeks 4 to 9

  • Obvious Players are shown as Rushers or Pass-catchers or Both. 

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Team RB ATTs RUSH vs Targets Pass-Catching Tables and Graphs

I go through these data tables by asking questions and determining the answers. Each Player must be addressed.

Time intensive for sure. If you want it on a platter you are not reading this then. Its ok because I do these articles for me as well as my readers. It makes me do the work. I tell my students chop the wood then you get the fire not get the fire first then someone produces the wood? 

Let me narrate, for example, looking at these metrics. Who is each RB? Rusher/Pass Catcher? Both One or the Other or Neither? I Highlighted the metrics for an easy view!  For example, Drake is the rusher vs. Edmonds is the pass-catcher.

These tables have:

  • Team
  • Player
  • % Team Rushing
  • % Team Targets
  • Avg Atts
  • Avg of Targets
  • Colorization of Player Name Green-Rusher, Blue-Pass Catcher, and Yellow-Both. 

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I consider the level of committee work in thinking about this week’s games. What is going to change? New Faces or New Levels of Activity?

Additionally, I like to scan Bar Graph landscapes of data! These graphs can spot deep plays or Dynasty grabs.

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Week 9 Targets and Touches.

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