NFL Eliminator Challenge: Week 10

Welcome to Week Ten of our NFL Eliminator Challenge series.  Last week we made it back to perfection with a 3-0 mark.  While all the games were close, Atlanta and Tennessee won by seven while Kansas City won by two.  Let’s do it two weeks in a row!  Feel free to comment at the bottom or hit me up on twitter!

Step 1 – Avoid Division Matchups

If 2020 has taught us anything, it has shown us why you avoid division matchups.  In Washington, we saw the Giants and WFT game decided by just a field goal.  In New York, we saw the Patriots pull off a 4th quarter comeback to similarly win by only three.  In Jacksonville, we almost saw an unknown quarterback lead a fourth quarter comeback coming up short on the two-point conversion.  Then in LA, we saw the Chargers drop a game winning touchdown pass with no time remaining.  Wow!  I’ve said it once and I’ll say it again, do yourself a favor and avoid the below division games:

  • Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans
  • Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants
  • Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers
  • Denver Broncos @ Las Vegas Raiders
  • Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Rams
  • Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears

Step 2 – Avoid Marquee Matchups

With how great division games were last week, prime time fell short.  The Packers easily took care of the hobbled 49ers on Thursday, and on Sunday, the game of the week turned into an absolute beat down by the Saints.  Thankfully, we got one close game on Monday, but I’m not sure the audience was very big for such a disappointing AFC East matchup of basement dwellers.  However, just because this week wasn’t very close, don’t forget the prime time thrillers from earlier this season.  Unless you want to take a chance, I would avoid the below marquee games:

  • Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans
  • Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots
  • Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears

Step 3 – Avoid Picking Against Home Field Advantage

Two weeks ago, we saw a ton of upsets where favorites on the road came up short.  This past week, not so much.  The only upset we saw was in Buffalo where the Seahawks were technically favored, but the way Buffalo is playing this season, I’m not sure this was a true upset.  We will continue to keep an eye on this rule for 2020 but for now I’m still going to play it safe and avoid the below games where the favorite is the away team:

  • Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers
  • Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots
  • Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears

Step 4 – Make your pick!

My pick of the week is:

  • Green Bay Packers over the Jacksonville Jaguars

The Aaron Rodgers-led Packers are on fire right now.  The Jaguars on the other hand are clearly in the middle of the Trevor Lawrence sweepstakes.  This is a Sunday 1pm game, in Green Bay, in November.  This should be a blow out.

Other options I like this week:
  • New Orleans Saints over the San Francisco 49ers

If the Saints can dominate the Bucs like they did last week, the 49ers could be in trouble with half their starters on IR.  Similar to the Packers game above, this should be an easy pick.

  • Baltimore Ravens over the New England Patriots

The New England Patriots barely beat the winless Jets.  The New England Patriots had to come back from down two scores in the fourth quarter against the winless Jets.  A year ago this was a prime time matchup for the history books.  This year, not so much.

Last Week Record = 3-0

Season Record = 20-6

Follow me on twitter and let me know what you think of this week’s picks @DE_aaron!

https://twitter.com/DE_aaron

Thanks for reading!

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