Week 9 Rankings With Uncertainty

Week 9 Rankings With Uncertainty

Week 9 Rankings With Uncertainty. I have discussed decisions under uncertainty before in my many articles.

The approach I use is synthesis of many data streams that provide input for different scenarios that may exist in fantasy football.

Additionally, I also move from the Top-Down Broad into the Specific. Having been a scientist for 35 years, deconstruction is a strong method for investigating hypothesis testing and research findings.

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Week 9 Team Average PPR Based Rankings Raw and Scaled Rankings to League Average.

Week 9 Rankings With Uncertainty. The framing of the week’s teams by highlighting their average fantasy sports professor’s rankings (FSPR) is essential to finding sweet spots for line-ups, and DFS plays.

(GREEN High/RED-Weak Plays)

The top teams in Week 9 for fantasy are HOU/PIT/LAC and many have a solid matchup, and some could surprise this week. I move towards these teams in DFS.

The bottom teams here are NYJ/DAL/MIA/JAC for week 9, and these are the extremes. Additionally, these teams have various issues this week. Move away from them, especially for any gamble or marginal plays.

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Week 9 Rankings With Uncertainty.

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Week 9 Team Rankings

I constructed this graph to visualize the pecking order of teams week 9. 

Week 9 Rankings With Uncertainty.

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Team Level Uncertainty

Week 9 Rankings with Uncertainty. Thus, I begin with a look at this week’s Team level of uncertainty.

  • High uncertainty suggests deeper thinking and more caution in DFS and line-ups.
  • On the other hand, low uncertainty teams can provide us with DFS stacks and deep players into our line-ups.

The table below presents week 9’s UNC numbers from each team (High, AVG, and Low). Additionally, I calculated a ratio of Team players High or AVG in UNC vs. Low UNC (HA/L).

Interestingly, this ratio gives a look into the Team’s overall uncertainty for your consideration. Finally, I colorized the numbers and team names to give the overall UNC landscapes.

Move toward the lower UNC teams in DFS and away from the higher UNC teams. For example, move to SEA/BAL/MIA/LAC/IND  (bold picks for some). I will be moving away from CHI and CAR for DFS.  In redrafts then play the top players only in CAR and CHI beware of deeper plays. 

Week 9 Rankings With Uncertainty.

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Combination Week 9 Team Rankings vs UNC Levels Table and Graph

This table and graph hammer home the week 9s Team Power Rankings vs. UNC level. I sorted by FSPR Team Averages from High to Low.

Find the extremes for week 9 games. Red Stars mark High Ranked High Uncertainty Teams for week 9.

 

Week 9 Rankings With Uncertainty.

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UNC Landscape for Week 9

I have visually highlighted the entire league for Sunday/Monday Games.  Study your DFS plays and see if the player’s team is more or less uncertain and scale your wagers etc. accordingly in DFS. Good tiebreaker for lineups as well.

  • Left to Right marked highest vs lowest ranked for week 9 pink lines.
  • Red Bars are marking the most uncertain teams for week 9.

Week 9 Rankings With Uncertainty.

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Player PPR Rankings with UNC Levels by Positions

Week 9 Rankings With Uncertainty. These following figures place all players within their positions of my rankings and uncertainty levels.

Use these metrics to establish levels for your DFS and Line-ups plays.  Make sure that these are combined with my Match-Up Analysis upcoming. Scan first, then drill down to ask questions.

Each Data Block consists of:

  • Team 
  • Players 
  • HIGH AVG or LOW UNC
  • FSPR under their UNC level.
  • FSPR Ranking 

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Defenses

HOU will be a surprise DEF. WAS is High in Uncertainty for week 9. 

Week 9 Rankings With Uncertainty.

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KICKERs

Note HOU’s Kicker

Week 9 Rankings With Uncertainty.

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Quarterbacks

Like Watson but there is the High UNC. DFS gamble? 

Week 9 Rankings With Uncertainty.

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Week 9 Rankings With Uncertainty.

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Running Backs

Usual Suspects at the top. Welcome back CMC! 

Week 9 Rankings With Uncertainty.

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Week 9 Rankings With Uncertainty.

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Tight Ends

Kelce is the week 9 greatest of the TE players. 

Week 9 Rankings With Uncertainty.

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Week 9 Rankings With Uncertainty.

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Week 9 Rankings With Uncertainty.

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Wide Receivers

Diggs is nice at 3rd WR this week.  Also, Fuller from HOU in the top group. 

Week 9 Rankings With Uncertainty.

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Week 9 Rankings With Uncertainty.

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Week 9 Rankings With Uncertainty.

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Week 9 Rankings With Uncertainty.

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Week 9 Rankings With Uncertainty.

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Professor’s MATCH-UP ANALYSIS

Week 9 Rankings With Uncertainty. I present the heart of my week 8 analysis for line-ups and DFS plays. Fantasy Football is a weekly game that places Teams into different environments, and outcomes are based on those situations.

Firstly, I use Vegas Metrics to frame the scoring potential of all games. Move toward higher scoring games.

Secondly, I bring onto the table the match-ups defense against the positions metrics (DAPs) to see the sweet spots and traps for the players.

Thirdly, I like to go toward safer, easy spots for players, but stud players are those that can fight through adversity. Weak deeper plays are only advised in higher-scoring games.

As the predicted Vegas points go down, you should get more cautious except in tournament DFS where going contrary can be profitable. 

Finally, I focus on talent, not hype! Ignore the sizzle and chew into the game bottom lines!

Weather: Wind >20mph is a factor in passing. Tone down your picks as needed.

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Week 9 Vegas High Scoring Games (above 49 total game points)

Week 9 Rankings With Uncertainty. The table below lists the 7 games that Vegas suggests will be high scoring this week, and thus, you should move toward these games for DFS Stacks, etc. as well as deeper plays in your line-ups. You must still use common sense but look extra hard to find surprises in these games.

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Example Analysis- SEA vs BUF

Firstly, SEA vs BUF should be a high scoring game as per Vegas.  Next, I turn to my DAP Metrics in the Red Box data. Finally, I dig into my player rankings and UNC designations. 

SEA

When SEA has the ball, they get a nice easier BUF DAP +69/100 – higher scores are the easiest vs lower tougher scores. Note that Wilson is 98 Ranking see the rankings/UNC metrics below. He fights into an 85 QB DAP 3 TDs or more. Note his WRs will have to work vs a 43 BUF WR DAP -Locket game? Moore surprises?

The TEs get a perfect +98 DAP and 1 of the 3 TEs should score? I have Olsen at the top but it’s a committee of TEs and thus I rank him at 41.8. Great Matchup but too many mouths to feed. DFS gamble only. 

The RBs should have an opportunity to score vs +61 DAP. If the game gets out of hand DJD – 53 ranked – could collect multiples. However, if BUF is close -should be- then the WRs collect. Tricky. 

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Week 9 Rankings With Uncertainty.

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Week 9 Rankings With Uncertainty.

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BUF

When BUF gets the ball they face a very easy DEF for passing. Note the QB and WRS are +145/115. Vegas knows this and this is why this game is predicted for high scoring. Allen is ranked at 90 low UNC with the WRs Diggs -90.8- and he should get you 2 TDs. However, Brown/Beasley are slowing each other down but they have an opportunity to collect scores.  Caution of them. DFS plays? 

Zack Moss and Singletary will fight into a tough SEA RB DAP of 27. That is a reason why they are similarly ranked at 46. Caution.

The TEs are also fighting into a tough DEF DAP of +48 average. Gamble only. 

Week 9 Rankings With Uncertainty.

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Week 9 Rankings With Uncertainty.

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Week 9 Rankings With Uncertainty.

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Week 9 Rankings With Uncertainty.

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Week 9 Rankings With Uncertainty.

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Week 9 Rankings With Uncertainty.

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Week 9 Rankings With Uncertainty.

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Week 9 Vegas Above Average Scoring Games (above 45 total game points)

Week 9 Rankings With Uncertainty. The table below lists the 3 games that Vegas suggests will be above average scoring this week, and thus, you might move toward these games for DFS Stacks, etc. as well as deeper plays in your line-ups. They could be solid DFS plays but be thoughtful.

 

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Week 9 Vegas Below Average Scoring Games (44 total game points or less)

Week 7 Rankings With Uncertainty.  NE vs. SF is expected to be a lower-scoring affair. Stay to the “sure” plays. Caution.

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Week 9 Rankings With Uncertainty.

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