Week 8 Rankings With Uncertainty

John Bush
October 31, 2020

Week 8 Rankings With Uncertainty

Week 8 Rankings With Uncertainty. I have discussed decisions under uncertainty before in my many articles.

The approach I use is synthesis of many data streams that provide input for different scenarios that may exist in fantasy football.

Additionally, I also move from the Top-Down Broad into the Specific. Having been a scientist for 35 years, deconstruction is a strong method for investigating hypothesis testing and research findings.

My SNAPs Report Snaps Report for this Week
My Targets and Touches Report Link to Targets and Touches Report

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Week 8 Team Average PPR Based Rankings Raw and Scaled Rankings to League Average.

Week 8 Rankings With Uncertainty. The framing of the week’s teams by highlighting their average fantasy sports professor’s rankings (FSPR) is essential to finding sweet spots for line-ups, and DFS plays.

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(GREEN High/RED-Weak Plays)

The top teams in Week 8 for fantasy are LAC/KC/TEN/PHI/SEA/DET/GB/TB and many have a solid matchup, and some could surprise this week. I move towards these teams in DFS.

The bottom teams here are NYJ/MIA/NE/CHI/NO/NYG/DEN/CLE for week 8, and these are the extremes. Additionally, CHI/SEA/WAS/CIN teams have various issues this week. Move away from them, especially for any gamble or marginal plays.

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Team Level Uncertainty

Week 8 Rankings with Uncertainty. Thus, I begin with a look at this week’s Team level of uncertainty.

High uncertainty suggests deeper thinking and more caution in DFS and line-ups.
On the other hand, low uncertainty teams can provide us with DFS stacks and deep players into our line-ups.

The table below presents week 8’s UNC numbers from each team (High, AVG, and Low). Additionally, I calculated a ratio of Team players High or AVG in UNC vs. Low UNC (HA/L).

Interestingly, this ratio gives a look into the Team’s overall uncertainty for your consideration. Finally, I colorized the numbers and team names to give the overall UNC landscapes.

Move toward the lower UNC teams in DFS and away from the higher UNC teams. For example, move to TEN/BAL/NO/SEA/PHI/MIA/LAR/SF/IND/DAL (bold picks for some). I will moving away from CHI/CLE/NE/DET/MIN/NYG/KC for DFS. In redrafts then play the top players only.

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Combination Week 8 Team Rankings vs UNC Levels Table and Graph

This table and graph hammer home the week 8s Team Power Rankings vs. UNC level. I sorted by FSPR Team Averages from High to Low.

Additionally, Look to the UNC level (HA/L Column). Therefore, TEN is 3rd ranked this week but very low UNC of 0.3. KC is ranked second but it has a 2.8 UNC level. I lean to TEN in closer decisions in DFS.

Another interesting game is NO vs CHI, I see closely ranked teams but CHI is very High in UNC levels +11 vs NO 1.1. Lean to NO in close decisions.

Find the extremes for week 8 games.

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The Orange Stars mark extremes in High UNC Teams. Move away from these teams. The pink line is the week 8’s league UNC average. All above are high UNC teams vs those Teams below!

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Player PPR Rankings with UNC Levels by Positions

Week 8 Rankings With Uncertainty. These following figures place all players within their positions of my rankings and uncertainty levels.

Use these metrics to establish levels for your DFS and Line-ups plays. Make sure that these are combined with my Match-Up Analysis upcoming. Scan first, then drill down to ask questions.

Each Data Block consists of:

Team
Players
HIGH AVG or LOW UNC
FSPR under their UNC level.
FSPR Ranking

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Defenses

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KICKERs

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Mahomes/Wilson Top QBs but both AVG UNC. Safe is Jackson as the 4th QB but low UNC! Rodgers is High UNC. Scan for deeper thinking.

Quarterbacks

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Elliot/CEH/Connor/Jacobs High UNC

Running Backs

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Godert is active and a low UNC. Solid. Waller/Henry is High UNC.

Tight Ends

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Hill is 2nd WR but High UNC.
Thielen/Robinson/Diggs are high ranked WRs but High UNC.

Wide Receivers

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Professor’s MATCH-UP ANALYSIS

Week 8 Rankings With Uncertainty. I present the heart of my week 8 analysis for line-ups and DFS plays. Fantasy Football is a weekly game that places Teams into different environments, and outcomes are based on those situations.

Firstly, I use Vegas Metrics to frame the scoring potential of all games. Move toward higher scoring games.

Secondly, I bring onto the table the match-ups defense against the positions metrics (DAPs) to see the sweet spots and traps for the players.

Thirdly, I like to go toward safer, easy spots for players, but stud players are those that can fight through adversity. Weak deeper plays are only advised in higher-scoring games.

As the predicted Vegas points go down, you should get more cautious except in tournament DFS where going contrary can be profitable.

Finally, I focus on talent, not hype! Ignore the sizzle and chew into the game bottom lines!

Weather: Wind >20mph is a factor in passing. Tone down your picks as needed.

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Week 8 Vegas High Scoring Games (above 49 total game points)

Week 8 Rankings With Uncertainty. The table below lists the 6 games that Vegas suggests will be high scoring this week, and thus, you should move toward these games for DFS Stacks, etc. as well as deeper plays in your line-ups. You must still use common sense but look extra hard to find surprises in these games.

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Example Analysis

When GB has the Ball they face a +74 easy defense from MIN. QB/WR have great DAPs +61 +95. RB/TE have below average tougher matchups at +36/39. Adams should score 1 or 2 TDs. Rodgers can do well.

When MIN has the ball they face a below average defense DAP of +45. Cook has a great matchup at +95. while the passing game does not at 52/34/38. The game flow moves against the rushing if GB scores a lot. MIN has to pass to keep up. Cook may be limited in the late game.

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Jones is out. Williams carries on at 51 rankings. Adams gets 120 ranking!

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Cook get a 86 and I hope he scores early so the late game script does not limit him. Thielen is 87 ranked by High UNC vs a tough DEF!

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Week 8 Vegas Above Average Scoring Games (above 45 total game points)

Week 8 Rankings With Uncertainty. The table below lists the 3 games that Vegas suggests will be above average scoring this week, and thus, you might move toward these games for DFS Stacks, etc. as well as deeper plays in your line-ups. They could be solid DFS plays but be thoughtful.