Week 7 Targets and Touches

Week 7 Targets and Touches

Week 7 Targets and Touches. My weekly routine is analyzing various fantasy football metrics, including:

  • Snaps per Second of Offensive Possession. See Below
  • Snaps Report for this Week
  • Targets and Touches
  • Vegas Over-Under Lines
  • Defense Against the Position
  • My Rankings with Uncertainty Analysis. (Coming Saturday)

We must deal with decisions under uncertainty in fantasy football.

**A range of potential futures can be identified at level three uncertainty. A limited number of key variables (See Above) define that range, but the actual outcome may lie anywhere within it. There are no natural discrete scenarios.

** https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/strategy-under-uncertainty#

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Week 7 Team Target Averages and Scaled Targets vs League Average

Week 7 Targets and Touches. I always begin in a top-down approach, and, n this case, I focus on the top target generating teams. Clear value in PPR scoring! I then highlight the extremes from High (green) and Low (red) of all the NFL teams.  Green X marks the High Target Efficiency teams.

Additionally, also consider the amount of data, and our floor is not solid with just six weeks of data, but the more weeks then, the better for these metrics. I used average targets and targeting efficiency (targets sec) to highlight team targets over the last 6 weeks. 

Analysis of Week 7 Targets and Touches.

DAL is the clear top at 47 target efficiency, and Dak has been delivering, but now Dalton is in, and I expect a regression of DAL Targeting Efficiency. I will be shocked if DAL is now above the league average. Dalton will be the 16th QB type at that level. We will see if it’s the WRs or QBs in here for the metrics. 

DAL/WAS/PHI/NE/NYJ/JAX/KC/HOU/TEN/MIN are all teams having strong targeting efficiency! Some surprises in here for me, such as WAS. Additionally, in this list, DAL/WAS/PHI/NE/NYJ/JAX teams are stained green and pass-happy teams. Add Value to their pass-catchers! Note the Green X marking the tops in Team Targeting Efficiency. These are the team to focus on pass-catcher depth. 

These data trends are going to be trailing and these can change. Note DAL/WAS/MIA QB changes. 

The flip-side is BAL/LV/CLE/DET/MIN/IND/SEA/MIA/NYG/SF teams lower in the average targets.  Subtract week 7 value from their WRs. Rushing is more favored. Stock-pile RB handcuffs etc. These teams at or below 3.9 average targets. Caution in PPR leagues and DFS plays.

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Team Target Averages vs Targeting Efficiency Weeks 1 to 6

Week 6 Targets and Touches. The visual view of the team targets is shown below. I like to graph data points in comparison to the league average of 4.1 targets. This allows me in a glance to see what teams were above or below the average of Targets.

Additionally, I colorized the lines with blue vs. red. Consider the reasons why and is this week going to be different? Finally, use Vegas and Defense against the Positions (DAPS) to investigate that question! 

I present Team Target Averages first to showcase Teams across the league vs. league targeting averages. We must know the extremes for our finger-tip knowledge in line-ups and DFS plays. 

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KEY Extremes in High Targeting Efficiency

KEY Extremes in High Targeting are marked by Green Stars. Move-in PPR leagues toward them and away from lower Target Efficient teams on average. (Yes, other data can and will modify those trends, but we start here first). 

Additionally, consider why? What is going on in the top and bottom teams? Game Scripts etc. and is there a change this week?

Additionally, team targeting efficiency is interesting for some teams such as MIN, which is low in target averages but has nice efficiency with their passing (Orange Star). The opposite is CAR/CIN/ATL/BUF/LAC/GB/PIT, which are high in average targets but low in targeting efficiency? Questions remain. Is MIN going to improve vs. CAR/LAC/ATL/BUF/LAC/GB/PIT going to decline? Watch. 

Target Touches Week 7 Report

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Targeting Averages Week 1 to 7 vs. Team Positional Usages 

Week 7 Targets and Touches. I continue a drill down to see each team’s position in targeting averages weeks and positional usages from Weeks 1 to 7.

The actionable data here is what you can deduce from the trends.

Additionally, This landscape view is superior to what happened last week only. This broad view is a skill needed to improve your Fantasy Football Playing.

I look for extremes and unusual/surprising metrics. In these data, Teams are going to grade out higher in WRs (more of them) so if a team is overusing its RB or TE then the WR usages will be lower and standout.

EXTREMES= BLUE High Usages vs RED Low Team Usages. Note!

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ARI/ATL/BAL/BUF

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Bar Graph Patterns

Also, I include a visual bar graph of the team positional usages as well. Give this a soft scan for developing opinions for DFS and lineups. Each block of data included 4 teams at a time. I like to see the red line patterns. I compare the teams using just the red line graphs.

Find interesting situations! EXTREMES= BLUE High Usages vs RED Low Team Usages. Note! 

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CAR/CHI/CIN/CLE

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Week 7 Targets and Touches. Slide8

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DAL/DEN/DET/GB

Week 7 Targets and Touches. Slide9

 Week 7 Targets and Touches. Slide10

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HOU/IND/JAX/KC

  Week 7 Targets and Touches. Slide11

Week 7 Targets and Touches. Slide12

 

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LAC/LAR/LV/MIA

Week 7 Targets and Touches. Slide13

Week 7 Targets and Touches. Slide14

 

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MIN/NE/NO/NYG

Week 7 Targets and Touches. Slide15

Week 7 Targets and Touches. Slide16

 

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NYJ/PHI/PIT/SEA

Week 7 Targets and Touches. Slide17

Week 7 Targets and Touches. Slide18

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SF/TB/TEN/WAS

Week 7 Targets and Touches. Slide19Slide20  

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Targets and Usage Efficiency Within Positions.

Week 7 Targets and Touches. You must also consider the player’s ranking among their position. 

High Use within the Team but Low in the League is different than High and High.

That should give your concerns for league lower players in targets. Weak teams are known to have poor depth in PPR scoring. Scan through the positions and find the unusual and extremes. ** Assuming FF data is normally distributed?

In an extreme value analysis, extreme events are defined to be those observations in a sample which are unusually high, or low, and are therefore considered to occur in the tails of a probability distribution.

Standard statistical methods are designed to characterize the mean behavior of a process or data sample and are therefore not generally useful for capturing this tail behavior.

https://www.lancaster.ac.uk/maths/research/statistics/extreme-value-statistics/

The following positional based tables have been sorted by Total Season Team Targeting Usages vs. Average Targets.

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Running Backs

  • Top teams (BLUE) in RB Usages are  all above 33% in RB usages!
  • Weak RB Team Usages (RED) below 22% coming

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BAR Graph RBs Targets vs. Usages.

I note NO/CAR/JAX/GB/CHI/CIN/WAS/DAL/LAC/PHI/SF all are marked by Green Stars. These are teams producing targets above their team’s usages.

Red Stars are the opposite and are of some concern. NE/BAL/CLE RBs.

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Tight Ends

  • TE Centric Teams (Above 38% Usage) are SF/LV/PHI/BAL/DET/KC.
  • MIN/SEA/BUF/GB/NO/ARI/CAR/NE all below 25% TE Usages. Interesting in NO given the recent TE activity (watch)

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 GREEN Stars Mark Interesting Teams above the usages vs ORANGE stars are below the usages in TEs. 

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Wide Receivers

  • The top WR usage teams are NE/NYJ/ARI/ATL/MIN/CAR/SEA  teams with WRs used above 48%. Key deeper WRs are viable on these teams.
  • LV/SF/PHI/KC/NYG/DET are poor WR using teams who are using the RB and/or TE to compensate. Beware depth WRs on these teams.
  •  Green/Orange Stars Mark Interesting Teams on the Graph 

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Team Positional Player Week 2 to 7 Targets, Target Averages, and DIFFs

Week 7 Targets and Touches. I next drill down into these metrics within each Team. Fantasy Football is a weekly Team based game!

Secondly, I added the player usages within their teams for the “pecking order” and DIFFs to catch improving or declining players. 

These tables contain:

  • Team
  • Position
  • Player
  • Targets Week  2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7     ( High to Low – Green to Red)
  • Target Averages                                 ( High to Low – Blue to Red)
  • Late vs. Early DIFFs                          (High to Low -Purple to Yellow)
  • 2 Weeks DIFFs                                    (High to Low -Purple to Yellow)

I like to use these metrics as a reference in the context of Vegas and DAPs. Is the pecking order real? Is the production real, and will be replicated this week? Find the unusual and extreme. I scan for those and note those. 

My Week 8 Rankings are out tomorrow, FYI. 

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Running Backs AVG Targets and DIFFs

Extremes are of interest. Scan in the DIFFs for short/long term changes.

Example Elliot/Karma losing targets recently vs White drop -8 last 2 weeks. Short vs Longer Term Target increases or declines.

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Tight Ends AVG Targets and DIFFs

 

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Wide Receivers AVG Targets and DIFFs

 

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Running Back Touches with % Rushing vs Receiving (ATTs vs Targets)

Week 7 Targets and Touches.  RBs are the most difficult position in fantasy football to calculate because they both rush and catch. That fact then opens more possibilities within the game. Therefore, we must consider that extra dimension for RBs, especially in PPR leagues. 

The easy RB to figure is one that does both catch and rush. The harder RBs are the pass-catcher only types as they are game script dependent. Thus if you have a pass-catcher RB (i.e., Edmonds 71% catching), you must consider the way that game might go. See Vegas and DAPs as a foundation for your thinking. 

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Team Level RB Rushing Attempts vs. Targets with Rush/Pass Ratios

Week 7 Targets and Touches.  We must understand the nature of each team towards its use of RBs in rushing and passing.

Firstly, I calculated each Team’s Rush/Pass Ratio and Sorted all teams by that metric. 

Next, I note extreme in RB ratios. I highlighted the extremes using RRR vs. TTT.  All Rushing vs. All Pass-Catching. 

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TEAM RB Rush/Target Ratios

Rushing Biased (Purple) to Pass-Catching RB Teams from Left to Right.

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Team Level Rushing Attempts vs Targets with Averages. 

It is important to determine each RBs activity in rushing vs. pass-catching. Observing the trends is essential for considering this week’s performance. I would stroll through to get a sense of the trends. 

These tables contain:

  • 4 Teams

  • RB Players

  • Rush ATTs Weeks 2 to 7

  • Targets Weeks 2 to 7

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Team RB ATTs RUSH vs Targets Pass-Catching

I go through these data tables by asking questions and determining the answers. Each Player must be addressed.

Time intensive for sure. If you want it on a platter you are not reading this then. Its ok because I do these articles for me as well as my readers. It makes me do the work. I tell my students chop the wood then you get the fire not get the fire first then someone produces the wood? 

Let me narrate, for example, looking at these metrics. Who is each RB? Rusher/Pass Catcher? Both One or the Other or Neither? I Highlighted the metrics for an easy view!  For example, Drake is the rusher vs. Edmonds is the pass-catcher.

These tables have:

  • Team
  • Player
  • % Team Rushing
  • % Team Targets
  • Avg Atts
  • Avg of Targets

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I consider the level of committee work in thinking about this week’s games. What is going to change? New Faces or New Levels of Activity?

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Visual Graph Landscape of Team RBs

I like to scan landscapes of data! These graphs can spot deep plays or Dynasty grabs.

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RBs Sorted % Rushing

  • RBs Named
  • Stained Green are Rushing-Centric
  • Stained Yellow are Rusher and Pass-Catcher (Top in Teams)
  • Stained Blue Pass-Catcher

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RBs Sorted by Pass-Catching

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Week 7 Targets and Touches.

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