Week 7 Rankings With Uncertainty

John Bush
October 24, 2020

Week 7 Rankings With Uncertainty

Week 7 Rankings With Uncertainty. I have discussed decisions under uncertainty before in my many articles.

The approach I use is synthesis of many data streams that provide input for different scenarios that may exist in fantasy football.

Additionally, I also move from the Top-Down Broad into the Specific. Having been a scientist for 35 years, deconstruction is a strong method for investigating hypothesis testing and research findings.

My SNAPs Report Snaps Report for this Week
My Targets and Touches Report Link to Targets and Touches Report

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Week 7 Team Average PPR Based Rankings Raw and Scaled Rankings to League Average.

Week 7 Rankings With Uncertainty. The framing of the week’s teams by highlighting their average fantasy sports professor’s rankings (FSPR) is essential to finding sweet spots for line-ups, and DFS plays.

The top teams in Week 7 for fantasy are DET/GB/KC/DAL/ARI/TB/LAR/PIT/NO/ATL, and many have a solid matchup, and some could surprise this week. I move towards these teams in DFS.

The bottom teams here are SF/DEN/JAC/LV for week 7, and these are the extremes for week 7. Additionally, CHI/SEA/WAS/CIN teams have various issues this week. Move away from them, especially for any gamble or marginal plays.

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Week 7 Team Scaled FSPR Player Averages

Week 7 Rankings With Uncertainty. This Bar graph is a visual aid in considering the FSPR Team rankings. I scaled the data against the week 7 league average to calculate a Team’s advantage or disadvantage this week.

For example, DET, GB, KC, and DAL are very high compared to the other teams. DFS Stacking?

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Team Level Uncertainty

Week 7 Rankings with Uncertainty. Thus, I begin with a look at this week’s Team level of uncertainty.

High uncertainty suggests deeper thinking and more caution in DFS and line-ups.
On the other hand, low uncertainty teams can provide us with DFS stacks and deep players into our line-ups.

The table below presents week 7’s UNC numbers from each team (High, AVG, and Low). Additionally, I calculated a ratio of Team players High or AVG in UNC vs. Low UNC. Interestingly, this ratio gives a look into the Team’s overall uncertainty for your consideration. Finally, I colorized the numbers and team names to give the overall UNC landscapes.

Move toward the top teams in DFS and away from the higher UNC teams. For example, move to TEN/NO and away from CLE/WAS Low to High UNC Teams for Week 7)

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Bar Graph Plot of Week 6 Team Uncertainty Levels

Week 7 Rankings with Uncertainty. A simple Bar Graph encapsulates the Landscape of Team Uncertainty for week 7. The low UNC teams are low green stained and plotted to the right vs. the high UNC Teams are high red-stained to the left. The level of each team’s UNC can be used for further decisions.

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Combination Week 7 Team Rankings vs UNC Levels

This table and graph hammer home the week 7s Team Power Rankings vs. UNC level. The range of outcomes is high in CLE WAS, but both have lower team rankings.

Also, view TB and PIT as higher ranked but with more UNC in the possible outcomes. They will have a High Ceiling but Lower Floor than others in the higher-ranked week 7 teams.

Additionally, LAR and NO are ranked above average and have a low UNC level. Their Ceiling to FLoor is short in distance. Safe??

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Player PPR Rankings with UNC Levels by Positions

Week 7 Rankings With Uncertainty. These following figures place all players within their positions of my rankings and uncertainty levels.

Use these metrics to establish levels for your DFS and Line-ups plays. Make sure that these are combined with my Match-Up Analysis upcoming. Scan first, then drill down to ask questions.

Each Data Block consists of:

Team
Players
HIGH AVG or LOW UNC
FSPR under their UNC level.
FSPR Ranking

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WAS CHI good DEF but higher UNC

Defenses

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Prater Crosby Zuerlein Higher Ranking but Higher UNC

KICKERs

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Mahomes/Wilson Top QBs but High UNC

Quarterbacks

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Elliot/Connor/Gurley/CEH High Ranks Higher UNC

Running Backs

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TJH/Waller/Henry High Ranking and UNC

Tight Ends

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DHOP/HILL/Adams/Diggs High Ranking but High UNC

Wide Receivers

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Professor’s MATCH-UP ANALYSIS

Week 7 Rankings With Uncertainty. I present the heart of my week 7 analysis for line-ups and DFS plays. Fantasy Football is a weekly game that places Teams into different environments, and outcomes are based on those situations.

Firstly, I use Vegas Metrics to frame the scoring potential of all games. Move toward higher scoring games.

Secondly, I bring onto the table the match-ups defense against the positions metrics (DAPs) to see the sweet spots and traps for the players.

Thirdly, I like to go toward safer, easy spots for players, but stud players are those that can fight through adversity. Weak deeper plays are only advised in higher-scoring games.

As the predicted vegas points go down, you should get more cautious except in tournament DFS where going contrary can be profitable.

Finally, I focus on talent, not hype! Ignore the sizzle and chew into the game bottom lines!

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Week 7 Vegas High Scoring Games (above 49 total game points)

Week 7 Rankings With Uncertainty. The table below lists the 9 games that Vegas suggests will be high scoring this week, and thus, you should move toward these games for DFS Stacks, etc. as well as deeper plays in your line-ups. You must still use common sense but look extra hard to find surprises in these games.

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Example Analysis

ATL has a straightforward Defense Against the Positions (DAPs) in QB and TEs from the DET Defense (Extreme Easy +120 130). Also, the ATL WRs have a nice DAP as well at +65. Gurley has the toughest situation at +41 RB DAP. He can score, but by pass-catching? Caution. Strong Play in DFS Stacks

DET faces a tougher DAP environment, but the RB and WR do get a break at 70 and 71 RB/WR DAPs. TJH, the TE, will have to fight through a tough 24 TE DAP. Stafford is ok ranked but should receiver pressure from ATL DAPs st 45.

High Scoring Game, though.

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Week 7 Vegas Above Average Scoring Games (above 45 total game points)

Week 7 Rankings With Uncertainty. The table below lists the 3 games that Vegas suggests will be above average scoring this week, and thus, you might move toward these games for DFS Stacks, etc. as well as deeper plays in your line-ups. They could be solid DFS plays but be thoughtful.