The debates are over and it’s time for final CFB DFS decisions to be made! As always, I focus on DraftKings targets each week here on Fake Pigskin. My goal is to identify three to four low-cost/reasonable floor targets as foundational pieces for all my lineups.
This way, you start by boosting your remaining price per player in the range to roster as many high floor/high upside guys who we all anticipate substantial statistical output from.
Here are the Vegas odds (favorites in bold) for the 12 games included in the Saturday afternoon DK contest:
|[email protected]UT 3:30PM ET|||9|||61|
|BAMA@TENN 3:30PM ET|||21|||66|
|[email protected]CLEM 12:00PM ET|||46|||62|
|[email protected]OKST 3:30PM ET|||3.5|||52|
|VT@WAKE 3:30PM ET|||9|||68|
|OU@TCU 12:00PM ET|||6.5|||59.5|
|AUB@MISS 12:00PM ET|||3|||70.5|
|[email protected]UNC 12:00PM ET|||15|||61|
|ND@PITT 3:30PM ET|||10.5|||43.5|
|[email protected]UL 12:00PM ET|||5|||61|
|[email protected]KSU 12:00PM ET|||20|||48.5|
|UK@MIZZ 4:00PM ET|||5.5|||47|
For example, I am not going to come at you with hot suggestions like Sam Ehlinger and Najee Harris. What I will do is point out that rostering the expensive duo will leave your average remaining price per player at $5,067. This is the price range I will focus on each week. Before every game is canceled, let’s decide this week’s plan for CFB DFS magnificence!
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Tauskie Dove | WR | Missouri $3,000
It’s that time of the year. In the Midwest where I am located, the days are getting shorter and darker. The sweaters are coming out of the closet. And, I have to accept the idea that I may not see the sun for 4-6 months.
Just the other night, I put my fall jacket on for the first time when heading out to catch a matinee of Tenet at my local theater. As I went to hide my flask in the jacket’s inside pocket, I discovered two wrinkled up twenty dollar bills from a year ago. No, $40 isn’t going to change anyone’s life, but the experience of finding a little extra cash that actually belongs to you never gets old. It’s those small nuggets that temporarily make me forget about not seeing the sun, and the pain I’ve suffered from watching two presidential debates.
It’s the same feeling I had when I discovered Mr. Dove at the bare minimum contest price. Going back to last season, I caught DK in a similar circumstance with Michigan State’s Elijah Collins when he was named the starter mid week. In this case, it may be even more egregious with this redshirt sophomore wide receiver because this isn’t really speculation of things that might be coming like Porter Rooks last week.
Last time out in their third game of the season, Dove lead the team in catches and yards, caught a flee flicker for a score, and was second among the receivers in snaps played. And, yes. I understand that if the trick play touchdown is removed, his stat line reads five catches for 25 yards. But at 3k, I’ll take that all day. I swear I wasn’t trying to rhyme there. Again!
Tyquan Thornton | WR | Baylor $4,500
Along with Dove, I think Clemson wide receivers Joseph Ngata and E.J. Williams are worth considering as bagel proof, contest minimum price candidates with reasonable touchdown upside, only because anyone that gets tick with the Tigers first team can score a touchdown. If he plays, also consider Kentucky’s Bryce Oliver at wide receiver in this department.
If you’re a little more risk adverse, I think Baylor’s Tyquan Thornton has a legit shot to be the steal of the slate as his price. Because they’ve only played two games (and one was basically a wacked out scrimmage against Kansas), in general I believe Baylor’s entire offense is being undervalued on DK this week. Especially considering the sieve that is the Texas defense.
As Baylor’s WR2 behind Denzel Mims last season, the Miami native produced a stellar 45-782-5 line, and lead the team with 17.4 yards per catch. With Mims now off to the wretched New York Jets, it stands to reason that Thornton and the rest of Baylor receiving core will see increased opportunity, and the raised CFB DFS ceilings that follow that opportunity. In a plus matchup, I see Thornton being safe with a 5-7 catch, 50-60 yard floor, with upside to compete with some of the upper tier receivers on the board.
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CFB DFS Podcast
For my expanded thoughts on this slate, listen to my CFB DFS podcast below where I go through every game on the board. It is also available on every major podcast platform. Please share with anyone you think may be interested. Also, don’t forget to leave a review and subscribe. Enjoy!
Fading Quarterback Chalk
Speaking of that suspect Texas defense, why not opt for Baylor’s Charlie Brewer if you’re trying to save at the quarterback position? Keep in mind, he also operates as a diet Sam Ehlinger, leading the Bears with 11 rushing touchdowns last season.
If I had to pick between quarterbacks in the Oklahoma/TCU game, I am absolutely going with Max Duggan over Spencer Rattler. Strictly because of the matchup, Bo Nix against Ole Miss will likely be sliding into most of my LUs this Saturday.
The lowest I would go at quarterback this week is Florida State’s new dual threat starter Jordan Travis, and Kansas State’s replacement for Skylar Thompson (season ending injury), Will Howard. Any quarterback in this range with Travis’s rushing stats upside is worth a look. In the case of Howard, it’s simply the matchup with Kansas. The Vegas script of a 35-14ish final score suggests Howard will be able to return solid value from the mid 6k range.
Chalk I Can’t Live Without
The stiff prices on Najee Harris, Breece Hall, and Trevor Lawrence will be a yuge decision point for players this week. Right now, I am not planning on playing any of them (or Ehlinger either) in the view that I believe I can find similar ceilings for lessor prices elsewhere.
For matchup purposes and roles in the offense, Khalil Herbert, Deuce Vaughn, and Tank Bigsby are my top pivots in place of Harris that I think have a reasonable chance to compete with him as the top running back for the slate. In general, I plan to be more team focused on Auburn and Virginia Tech than specifically targeting individual players.
Good luck for the CFB DFS Week 8 day slate! Follow me on twitter @realBobbyAdcock compliments and insults are always welcomed.