NFL Eliminator Challenge: Week 7

Welcome to Week Seven of our NFL Eliminator Challenge series.  Last week we finished 2-1, but were scary close to 0-3.  The Colts had a massive comeback over the Bengals, down three touchdowns at one point early in the game.  On the other side, the Ravens were winning handedly but almost let it slip away, holding on only due to the Eagles missing a two-point conversion, late.  Then came the Patriots; wow was I wrong about them.  While we didn’t hit our goal of 3-0, 2-1 is a close second!  Feel free to comment at the bottom or hit me up on Twitter!

Step 1 – Avoid Division Matchups

Last week, we got some great division matchups once again.  Look no further than the Titans Texans game.  Many thought the undefeated Titans would easily handle the 1-4 Texans who had already fired their head coach.  Instead, we got a true old fashioned shootout that took overtime to decide a winner.  Even the battle of the disappointing Giants and Football Team (did I do that right?), was decided by only one point in New York.  While the Dolphins and Steelers easily took care of inferior opponents, these games are still very hard to predict.  I’ve said it once and I’ll say it again, do yourself a favor and avoid the below division games:

  • New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles
  • Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals
  • Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints
  • Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets
  • Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Football Team
  • Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals
  • Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos
Step 2 – Avoid Marquee Matchups

Unfortunately, the amazing prime time games from Week Five didn’t exactly carry over into Week Six.  While the Sunday night game and first Monday night game weren’t blowouts, they also didn’t feel as close as the score determined.  You could possibly call the 49ers game an upset over the Rams, but neither team has been very dominant this season.  Hopefully we get better entertainment this week!  Unless you want to take a chance, I would avoid the below marquee games:

  • New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Las Vegas Raiders
  • Chicago Bears @ Los Angeles Rams
Step 3 – Avoid Picking Against Home Field Advantage

Last week, there were four teams on the road who were considered favorites by Vegas.  Two of them were victorious (Baltimore/Detroit), while two of them couldn’t bring the victory home (Packers/Rams).  While this rule is still iffy for 2020, after watching the Packers fall apart after their bye week, it does make you think if we need to be more careful here.  We will continue to keep an eye on this rule for 2020 but for now I’m still going to play it safe and avoid the below games where the favorite is the away team:

  • Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals
  • Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Football Team
  • Pittsburgh Steelers @ Tennessee Titans
  • Green Bay Packers @ Houston Texans
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Las Vegas Raiders
Step 4 – Make your pick!

My pick of the week is:

  • Buffalo Bills over the New York Jets

Yes, this is a division matchup and yes, the Bills are on the road, but have you watched the Jets play football this year?  With the Bills on a path to win the AFC East for the first time since god-knows-when, I don’t see the 0-6 Jets being the team to knock them off course.

Other options I like this week:

  • Los Angeles Chargers over the Jacksonville Jaguars

While I normally don’t like to invest in teams with a 1-4 record, the Chargers are coming off a bye, playing at home and are hosting a team traveling across the country.  With how well Justin Herbert has played, he is due for his first win as a pro.

  • New Orleans Saints over the Carolina Panthers

Another division game, I know, I know.  The reality is there aren’t a ton of great options in week seven, and if I’m taking a gamble, I’m gambling on one of the best coaches in football coming off a bye.  Hopefully this isn’t New England all over again.

Last Week Record = 2-1

Season Record = 12-5

Follow me on twitter and let me know what you think of this week’s picks @DE_aaron!

https://twitter.com/DE_aaron

Thanks for reading!

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