NFL Eliminator Challenge: Week 4

Welcome to Week Four of our NFL Eliminator Challenge series.  Last week was a tough one.  Our pick of the week, the LA Chargers, couldn’t beat a Panthers team missing their best player. Our alternate pick, Arizona, fell apart with their rookie phenom throwing three interceptions.  Thankfully, we didn’t get completely shutout, as the Colts dismantled the hapless Jets.  1-2 is just not good enough, time to get back to 3-0!  Feel free to comment at the bottom or hit me up on twitter!

Step 1 – Avoid Division Matchups

Welcome to our second week of no division matchups.  While we didn’t take advantage in Week Three, we will be better this week.  Moving on!

Step 2 – Avoid Marquee Matchups

Last week, prime time was filled with an upset, a close matchup and one big disappointment.  On Thursday night, after the entire TNF crew picked Jacksonville as their team to beat, the Dolphins absolutely dismantled the Jaguars on national television.  Then on Sunday night, we got to see Rodgers vs. Brees, in a matchup that was decided by only seven points.  However, Monday night, a game that was expected to be a nail bitter, was a huge disappointment, as the Chiefs easily handled the Ravens.  In prime time you never know what you’re going to get!  Unless you want to take a chance, I would avoid the below marquee games:

  • Denver Broncos @ New York Jets
  • Philadelphia Eagles @ San Francisco 49ers
  • Atlanta Falcons @ Green Bay Packers
Step 3 – Avoid Picking Against Home Field Advantage

In Week Two, 70% of home teams were victorious.  In Week Three?  38%!  Home field advantage was always questionable in these new Covid times, but this is unheard of.  The 0-2 Dolphins, Panthers and Lions all went on the road as underdogs and were victorious for the first time this season.  We will keep an eye on this rule for 2020, but for now I’m still going to play it safe and avoid the below games where the favorite is the away team:

  • Denver Broncos @ New York Jets
  • Indianapolis Colts @ Chicago Bears
  • New Orleans Saints @ Detroit Lions
  • Pittsburgh Steelers @ Tennessee Titans
  • Seattle Seahawks @ Miami Dolphins
  • Baltimore Ravens @ Washington Football Team
  • Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina Panthers
  • Buffalo Bills @ Las Vegas Raiders
Step 4 – Make your pick!

My pick of the week is:

  • Los Angeles Rams over the New York Giants

This pick is less about picking the Rams and more about picking against the Giants (and only because the Jets are playing another 0-3 team).  The reality is, these two teams from New York are just really, really bad.  A 49ers team, with what seemed like half of their starters on IR, went into New York and absolutely blew out the Giants.  With the Rams playing at home after having lost a very close game, on a very bad call last week, I expect them to rebound in a big way this coming Sunday.

Other options I like this week:

  • Dallas Cowboys over the Cleveland Browns

Here’s another pick of a good team who lost a close game last week.  They host a Browns team that barely beat the Bengals two weeks ago and beat a pretty bad Washington team last week.  I believe Dallas just has too much fire power and is hungry after their loss in Seattle last week.

  • Baltimore Ravens over the Washington Football Team

Yes, the Ravens are on the road, but they are also way too good of a football team to lose two in a row.  If Kyler Murray can tear apart the Washington defense like he did in Week Two, expect a similar outcome for the Ravens’ fleet-footed quarterback in Week Four.

Last Week Record = 1-2

Season Record = 6-3

Follow me on twitter and let me know what you think of this week’s picks @DE_aaron!

https://twitter.com/DE_aaron

Thanks for reading!

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