Week 2 was not without its land mines with probably the most injuries we’ve seen in recent memory. With these injuries, we’ll need to sort through the value in constructing our winning lineups. Looking ahead to Week 3, 14 teams are slated to score above 24 team points with ARI and SEA expected to score the most points at 30. Alright, let’s dig in!
*DISCLAIMER: all metrics being referred to are based on this week’s DK main slate of games unless otherwise specified. Also, all projected ownership is based upon Rotogrinders LineupHQ.
Russell Wilson | $7300 | Seattle Seahawks
16.2% projected ownership
Russ has been on absolute fire to start the 2020 season. As the highest priced QB in Week 3, I wouldn’t expect him to be mega-chalk and there’s always the adage of paying up to be contrarian.
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My hope is that Russ is somehow under 20% and we can separate ourselves from the pack in other parts of our rosters. We know the Seahawks are letting Russ chuck it (league leaders in points scored for QB), have a massive team total (30) and that the Cowboys are a perfect team to game stack (1st in pace of play via Football Outsiders) with given the concentration of targets. I’m not overthinking this one.
Kyler Murray | $6800 | Arizona Cardinals
18% projected ownership
Murray has been a dual threat force in his first 2 weeks of action rushing for 3 Tds and a pair through the air. His rushing prowess is intriguing given the Cardinals massive total of 30 while seeing how leaky the Lions were against GB in Week 2.
In 2019, DET ranked bottom 5 against rushers and quarterbacks as well. Given this weakness, I like the contrarian pairing of Murray/Drake to gain an edge on the field in this great matchup.
Even More Chalk QB: Dak Prescott and Josh Allen
Also Consider: Ryan Tannehill, Cam Newton, or Matthew Stafford
Joshua Kelley | $5000 | Los Angeles Chargers
7% projected ownership
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You may have noticed that neon green 32 next to Kelleys’ player card on DK this week and wonder why his projected ownership is so low. You’re not alone because I’m wondering the same thing here.
Much to the chagrin of Ekeler season long drafters, Kelley is tied for the team lead in rushing attempts. The backfield situation has become more murky than many expected entering the season.
I prefer Kelley here with his goal line work (top 6 in rushes inside opponents 10) playing against a team that gives up the most DKPt to opposing running backs to start the season (47.5 gm/avg.)
Miles Sanders | $6400 | Philadelphia Eagles
36.8% projected ownership
Sanders looked awesome in his return to the field after missing week 1 with a hammy. Per PFF’s Ian Hartitz, Sanders played 77% snaps in his return to action (top 10.)
The matchup with the visiting Bengals doesn’t get much better as they rank bottom 3 against the position with a 38.3 DKPt avg/gm. Philly’s 26.5 team total is decent and if we can get 25 from Sanders that’s a good 4x to win a gpp.
Jonathan Taylor | $7000 | Indianapolis Colts
29.9% projected ownership
After taking the reins of the Colts backfield, following Marlon Mack’s season ending achilles tear, Jonathan Taylor has established himself as a RB1 for fantasy.
In Week 2, as the uncontested bell-cow, Taylor toted the rock 26 (good for 2nd most behind Jacobs) which resulted in his first career 100 yard game.
Per PFF’s OL/DL Matchup chart, this is the best matchup in the trenches for rushing success. The Jets rank bottom 6th in DKPt allowed to opposing rushers (31.7 gm/avg.) The -10.5 line in favor of the Colts’ is the most lopsided spread on the slate and the Colts’ implied total of 27 is 5th highest.
Chalk RB: Ezekiel Elliott and Kenyan Drake
Also Consider: Chris Carson, Melvin Gordon, Antonio Gibson, James Conner, and Nick Chubb
Tyler Lockett | $6400 | Seattle Seahawks
19.2% projected ownership
Lockett will surely be chalk again Sunday after the Seahawks went completely nuclear against a strong NE defense on Sunday Night Football. I’m okay eating the chalk again here as the matchup is quite phenomenal for Lockett in the slot.
Slot corner Jourdan Lewis allowed a 115.5 passer rating when targeted in the game he was thrust into as the Cowboys 3rd cornerback in Sundays shootout with Atlanta.
Lockett leads the team in Market Share of Targets at a 27% clip and is top 10 in catch percentage (94%). Differentiate elsewhere and count stacks.
Michael Gallup | $5500 | Dallas Cowboys
9.9% projected ownership
If you’re sensing a theme here, good! This game is just screaming shootout and I love love love the game stack here. Like I’ve said already, let’s get different outside of this game and eat the chalk here.
The Seahawks have given up a league high 73.5 DKPt gm/avg to opposing receivers to start the season. This is the get right spot for Gallup who despite playing a team high 94% of snaps has only 5 receptions through 2 games.
Chalk WR: DeAndre Hopkins, Amari Cooper, DK Metcalf
Also Consider: CeeDee Lamb and Calvin Ridley
Drew Sample | $3500 | Cincinatti Bengals
3.3% projected ownership
Sample will get all the work he can handle with starting tight end Uzomah’s season ending prematurely with an achilles injury. The 2019 2nd rounder took advantage of his increase in snaps by logging 7 catches on 9 targets. His cheap price tag allows for some salary relief in game stacking the ARI or SEA/DAL games.
A “ceiling” of 16 is all that is needed for Sample to pay off his price for the gpp winning 5x. The Eagles could quite possibly be the funnel defense we want to stream our tight ends against.
Through 2 weeks of play, the Eagles defense has given up the most TDs to opposing TE’s (4) and 6th most DKPt (21.1 gm/avg.) Meanwhile, Sample is tied for 3rd in the league in Red Zone targets and the Bengals are top 10 in FPTs earned by the tight end position.
Chalk: Darren Waller and Logan Thomas
Also Consider: Zach Ertz, Dallas Goedert, TJ Hockenson, Tyler Higbee, or Mo Alie-Cox assuming Jack Doyle is out.
Defense / Special Teams
- Indianapolis Colts
- Pittsburgh Steelers
- Philadelphia Eagles
- San Francisco 49ers